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Here we go again - Migration Threat to Housing

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  • Here we go again - Migration Threat to Housing

    Migration threat to housing

    JAMES WEIR Last updated 05:00 22/03/2014
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    Migration has boomed to a ten-year high, and economists are warning that stronger than expected migration, perhaps 40,000 by the end of the year, could reignite the housing market.
    For the month of February, there were 3500 more migrant arrivals than departures, the highest in a decade, according to Statistics NZ figures out yesterday.
    The annual net gain was more than 29,000, but at recent monthly rates, that could head towards 38,000 or even 40,000 - close to record levels seen a decade ago.
    As fewer New Zealanders leave for Australia and more foreigners arrive here, the trend in migration has been rising since late 2012.
    More migrants are arriving from China than from Britain for the first time in a decade.
    The latest net gain was the highest since the 30,100 annual gain in the year to February 2004.
    The boom in migration in the early 2000s was a factor in rapidly rising house prices during the period.
    If the rate of migration in the past three months continued for a full year, the net gain would be about 38,000, close to the peak of the migration boom in 2003. That would be equal to a 0.8 per cent population increase, even before any natural increase, Deutsche Bank economists said.
    "Stronger than expected migrant flows risk reigniting the housing market and thus remain a key source of upside risk to the Reserve Bank's growth and domestic inflation forecasts," Deutsche Bank said.
    http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mone...eat-to-housing
    "There's one way to find out if a man is honest-ask him. If he says 'yes,' you know he is a crook." Groucho Marx

  • #2
    Well we lost 400k in the last 10 years so I guess a few gaps to fill. Lets hope that Govt. and banks don't go crazy and build like there's no tomorrow creating a surplus of homes.

    Comment


    • #3
      Another article on this.

      Net migrant inflow tops 29,000/year as net exit to Australia halved

      This has got to have an effect on property prices.
      Squadly dinky do!

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Davo36 View Post
        Another article on this.

        Net migrant inflow tops 29,000/year as net exit to Australia halved

        This has got to have an effect on property prices.
        But is the money real...I think not. Big trouble in little china. Check out this BBC Doco.

        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YW3h4wv8_ko

        Comment


        • #5
          Good doco McDuck, I watched the whole thing. Here's a better link, it's clearer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUSjMnmS5lI

          Not sure what to make of it though.

          Is it all going to tank or not? No one knows.
          Squadly dinky do!

          Comment


          • #6
            There are two trends that are just starting.
            First is that the 50k exodus to Ausie each year is on its way down to zero.
            Second is that Chinese immigration is higher than UK now and is just ramping up.

            This actually backs up what I told Tony Alexander about 2 to 3 years ago.
            The homestay influence is kicking in, the result of a decade or more of students coming to our schools for english lessons.
            They are staying and bringing their parents with them.

            Our Korean homestay says he wants to go to Auckland Uni then stay in NZ, and his father is learning english at home in preperation for coming over.
            My friend who has a chinese homestay, happened to say the same thing to me last week.

            Both stories, pretty much say that the touch of grass on their feet feels quite nice, after living 17 years in an apartment 5 stories up.
            Its just getting used to shops not being open 24 hours that hurts as they are used to spending time outside of the apartment socialising around town.
            Last edited by Bluekiwi; 25-03-2014, 10:27 AM.

            Comment


            • #7
              So basically its a race now.

              Building / LVR / OCR vs Immigration.

              My pick is that Immigration is going to streak ahead in the race till about early 2017.
              Foating rates will be around 9%, the Govt housing initiatives will be completed, and the Unitary Plan double dwelling and 300m2 lots flood the auckland market.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Bluekiwi View Post
                So basically its a race now.

                Building / LVR / OCR vs Immigration.
                That's quite nice. A small balanced equation. I like it.

                So on the left hand you have production, and on the right hand you have consumption.

                Hmm. nice. Could be supply vs demand in a sense.

                I'm not sure why we even have immigration.
                Do we even need any immigration?

                My fear is that we are presently running an immigration Ponzi scheme.
                And when all the immigrants try and collect their quality of life at once, there wont be enough to go round.
                Unless we keep importing increasingly larger numbers of immigrants...which will still eventually fail.
                It's the only explanation that works for the facts.

                I can't see John keys being silly enough to want to turn New Zealand into another providence of China.
                Mostly because we'd be an insignificant province without much sway against a huge communist run system.
                Maybe he is silly enough to think you can hold a dragon by the tail.. Maybe he's going to retire in Hawaii.. who knows.

                A real life example of supply and demand:
                I remember one summer a new Swan plant came up in the back yard, soon the Monarch caterpillars started to hatch.
                So many in fact that it was easy to see that the tree would be stripped bare before any of them got to start metamorphosis.
                We pondered possible solutions but decided to let nature take its course.
                A solution came from left field. We didn't expect it, and didn't figure it into any of our possible outcomes.
                A swarm of wasps took most of the caterpillars.
                There were enough leaves left to get the remaining few caterpillars all the way to butterfly stage.
                New Zealand may chew itself out of a future, or something unexpected may happen.
                Last edited by McDuck; 25-03-2014, 01:02 PM.

                Comment


                • #9
                  McDuck, I reckon the whole Westernised capitalist system (which the rest of the world is adopting as fast as it can) is a ponzi scheme.

                  It relies on constant growth. Population growth drives everything: New businesses, sales of consumer goods etc.

                  If ever there came a time when population plateaued, we'd see the whole thing come crashing down.
                  Squadly dinky do!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    It cant be that bad. Just look at Australia!




                    Just random thoughts

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by McDuck View Post
                      I'm not sure why we even have immigration.
                      Do we even need any immigration?
                      Short answer: Yes. As a group, NZers born outside of NZ are net contributors to our tax take. As a group, NZers born inside of NZ are net beneficiaries of the tax take.

                      In other words, immigrants pay their way - and more.

                      My fear is that we are presently running an immigration Ponzi scheme.And when all the immigrants try and collect their quality of life at once, there wont be enough to go round.
                      Following from the above fact (that immigrants pay for NZ born NZers) you can see that, actually, the opposite is the case.

                      I can't see John keys being silly enough to want to turn New Zealand into another providence of China.
                      Mostly because we'd be an insignificant province without much sway against a huge communist run system.
                      Maybe he is silly enough to think you can hold a dragon by the tail.. Maybe he's going to retire in Hawaii.. who knows.
                      The problem NZers have in regards to immigration is that they feel culturally insecure about it. There is a fear that NZ is changing into something that they don't know/like/understand. There are no valid economic arguments against immigration. Noone is "taking your job."

                      For example, the lowest level of unemployment in the country is in Southland - where they are forced to bring in Filipino workers because kiwis are not as willing to work on a dairy farm as they were 70 years ago.

                      New Zealand may chew itself out of a future, or something unexpected may happen.
                      Properly managed, there is no pragmatic reason why NZ's population couldn't double. There are plenty of social / cultural reasons why NZers would resist this change, however.

                      Here's the data on immigrants economic contribution to NZ:

                      http://www.dol.govt.nz/publications/...impacts_09.asp
                      Last edited by 123Loto; 26-03-2014, 06:56 PM. Reason: Added link to data

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Properly managed, there is no reason pragmatic reason why NZ's population couldn't double. There are plenty of social / cultural reasons why NZers would resist this change, however.
                        But there's no sensible argument to do it either.
                        Squadly dinky do!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by 123Loto View Post
                          The problem NZers have in regards to immigration is that they feel culturally insecure about it. There is a fear that NZ is changing into something that they don't know/like/understand. There are no valid economic arguments against immigration. Noone is "taking your job."
                          Rubbish, there is significant evidence that immigration impacts local employment, both in terms of unemployment and reduced wages. It is a simple demand and supply equation.


                          Originally posted by 123Loto View Post
                          For example, the lowest level of unemployment in the country is in Southland - where they are forced to bring in Filipino workers because kiwis are not as willing to work on a dairy farm as they were 70 years ago.
                          Not willing, at the wages offered. Instead of farmers increasing wages and making the conditions more attractive, they have a simple solution that enables them to import labour who will work at lower wages. This places a ceiling on wages.

                          Originally posted by 123Loto View Post
                          Properly managed, there is no pragmatic reason why NZ's population couldn't double. There are plenty of social / cultural reasons why NZers would resist this change, however.
                          There is no pragmatic reason why NZ's population couldn't increase 50 fold, the question is how does this make NZ better?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Davo36 View Post
                            But there's no sensible argument to do it either.
                            To double the population? I guess that would depend on the time frame. NZ's ethnic makeup has changed incredibly quickly in the last 15 years, which has caused a great deal of disquiet among many kiwis, but that's without coming close to doubling to the population. The question for me is whether, properly managed (so within a reasonable time frame), doubling the population will have a beneficial effect on the country or not.

                            Here are some assumptions I make:

                            1. This doubling would take a long time without immigration. So this is really a question about the pros and cons of (properly managed) immigration.

                            2. I'm not sure how I feel about immigration because I know that I am uninformed on the subject.

                            3. Most people who speak on this subject will not acknowledge their lack of awareness of the facts - but will still have a strong opinion (not saying you fall into this camp Davo; I've read a lot of your posts and you're clearly intelligent).

                            So I had a quick look around the Internet for some sensible arguments on whether immigration is "good" or not. It seems that it is considered to be generally positive for the local population. Problem is that lots of the info is about the States.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by elguapo View Post
                              Rubbish, there is significant evidence that immigration impacts local employment, both in terms of unemployment and reduced wages. It is a simple demand and supply equation.
                              I rubbish your rubbish. :-) Link please.

                              Sorry, this doesn't answer your concern - because I suppose a benefit to the economy may impact local employment both in terms of unemployment and reduced wages. I'll keep looking :-) but here's a link that argues immigration is positive for the economy.
                              http://www.overseas-emigration.co.uk...ffect-economy/

                              Here's a better one (2006 though)
                              http://www.beehive.govt.nz/node/28521

                              Another:
                              http://www.newzealandimmigration.net...-positive.html

                              Truth be told, these links are a bit weak - if you have better information I would welcome it!

                              Not willing, at the wages offered. Instead of farmers increasing wages and making the conditions more attractive, they have a simple solution that enables them to import labour who will work at lower wages. This places a ceiling on wages.
                              Nah, I don't buy the bashing farmers line sorry. People are less keen on sweaty labour these days, no matter the wages. My great grandfather traveled the length of the South Island following the work - AND he had to buy his own spade.

                              Still trying to find what filipinos get paid in Southland but here's a link about their employment in a general sense:

                              http://www.stuff.co.nz/southland-tim...-for-farm-work




                              There is no pragmatic reason why NZ's population couldn't increase 50 fold, the question is how does this make NZ better?
                              Yes, I agree that is an excellent question.
                              Last edited by 123Loto; 26-03-2014, 07:55 PM.

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