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House prices set to double in next few years - Olly Newland

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  • House prices set to double in next few years - Olly Newland

    Not sure if forumites have covered Olly's latest opinion piece.

    I hope he is correct!....but not sure how folk are going to afford to drive this impending bubble


    http://www.interest.co.nz/property/6...come-your-view

  • #2
    I'm still waiting for them to double from 2003 to now.
    DFTBA

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    • #3
      I can't really comprehend how they are going to double.

      People are having a hard time affording them at current levels. Wages aren't exactly sky rocketing either.
      "You’re neither right nor wrong because other people agree with you. You’re right because your facts are right and your reasoning is right"

      Comment


      • #4
        He hasn't exactly been right very often. And Interest.co.nz is all about internet traffic so it doesn't matter whether what he says is right or not, just that people visit the site to read it. In fact being wrong is almost better because it generates more traffic to the site.

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        • #5
          Is it because of the land or building costs ? I still can find many houses and sections for sell at reasonable price. While the market is hot, but people (including myself) are still very careful. Jobs are difficult to keep

          There were 3 vacancies in my company that require at least PhD, the number of applicants were 130+ !

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          • #6
            Not likely for the rest of NZ - double in 14 years is optimistic.
            SEARCH PropertyTalk, About PropertyTalk

            BusinessBlogs - the best business articles are found here

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            • #7
              You need to read it properly... he said something like "in some areas".
              My Profile

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              • #8
                I believe that interest rates will remain at or near the current levels for many years to come, and may even fall further. This is the new “normal” and is, in effect, a huge wage rise for the mortgage belt and working classes, let alone for investors and first home buyers.
                Look at it this way: All that is really happening is that as prices rise, people are merely swapping equities.
                The value of a house goes up making the owners feel richer, and they then buy another more expensive house using the “extra” wealth and thus the beat goes on.
                So
                Lower interest rates are like getting a wage rise.
                Ok. I buy that.
                So we borrow more to buy more expensive houses.
                Aren't we just negating the previous "wage rise"?

                Comment


                • #9
                  People who want to live in a certain area, and want a house in it, will always pay the market price to achieve that.
                  Its all just basic supply and demand.

                  The supply curve is moving up due to council and build costs.
                  Council affects the price of land and housing now, due to infrustructure development costs as well a building requirements.

                  The marginal cost to build a new house in a good area has been so far above the price people are prepared to pay, that houses have not been built.
                  Short supply in relation to demand is pushing up what people are prepared to pay.
                  More houses at this level are starting to be built.

                  See what Tony has to say, supports Olly.

                  HOUSING MARKET UPDATE
                  This week the most important thing to point out with regard to New Zealand’s housing market is that it has
                  been rising during a period when net migration outflows have been negative. In the year to October there
                  was a net population loss from migrant flows of 2,319 people. A year ago the loss was 103. The market has
                  lifted while the migration numbers have worsened. But now the migration numbers are getting better. In the
                  year to August the net migration loss was 4,118 therefore the situation is turning.
                  In seasonally adjusted terms the three month annualised flow has improved to a gain of 3,120 from a loss of
                  7,200 in the three months to July. This is quite a quick turnaround and one needs to treat short-term
                  migration movements with caution. But the trend is there and a number of factors which we have previously
                  identified are contributing to it.

                  First, the net flow with Australia is turning from a massive net loss of Kiwis each year to simply a large loss.
                  The net annual loss stands at 39,330 which is down from a peak of 39,956 two months ago. The net gain
                  from the United Kingdom has risen to 5,689 from 5,369 two months ago. Plus the net gain from China
                  including Hong Kong has risen to 5,599 from 5,574 two months ago and 4,899 a year ago.
                  Note the changes in these flows and how the China +Hong Kong rise is undoubtedly a long term rise
                  whereas, the Aussie flow is simply a cycle turning, and the UK flow is more of a few years of people deciding
                  to quit a tough environment to raise their kids in a better place. Each flow is unique but they are all now
                  contributing to a migration upturn at the same time and it would pay to watch therefore what happens with
                  the total net migration numbers over the past year.
                  Last edited by Bluekiwi; 03-12-2012, 03:50 PM.

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