Will there be another property boom in the next 5 years?

[speights boy]

NZ economy at risk if Chinese property bubble bursts, Euro crisis deepens, or recognition of bubble in Australia, Finance Minister English says



“As long as they keep growing, and as long as the Chinese economic management is able to manage inflation administratively, which you have to say is a risk, then we’ll probably get on OK.

“But if the Chinese property bubble actually bursts, or we finally realise there is one in Australia, things slow down," he said.

“Well there is one [a property bubble in Australia]. It’s just a matter of people recognising [it]."

“Then we could be at risk,” he said


http://www.interest.co.nz/news/nz-ec...ubble-australi

[NovInvestor]

As long as the west import all China's exports, the bubble will continue to grow.

Recently, China is experiencing great inflation in food prices across the whole country, even the national news is broadcasting this problem, and that the government is looking to control the situation.

On the wage front, skill workers are demanding higher pay and better working conditions, and factories/industries are short of these skill works, but yet resisting to pay higher.

Inflation is rampant in China, and so property prices will just go up and up there (not so fast as before due to government intervention) when wages increase.

[67910241]

As long as the west import all China's exports, the bubble will continue to grow.

Recently, China is experiencing great inflation in food prices across the whole country, even the national news is broadcasting this problem, and that the government is looking to control the situation.

On the wage front, skill workers are demanding higher pay and better working conditions, and factories/industries are short of these skill works, but yet resisting to pay higher.

Inflation is rampant in China, and so property prices will just go up and up there (not so fast as before due to government intervention) when wages increase.

IF the wages are allowed to increase.

IF the PRC's government doesn't do something too drastic to curb the inflation.

Or IF the inflation doesn't keep bubbling the necessities beyond second or speculation investment flats, thereby causing riots etc which can set up their own chain of nasty events.

And the biggest IF - IF there is no new customs or trade war vs West in general and the US in specific, which imo is a question of "when" rather than "if" it will begin. And "when" as in - this year or next, not 2011+ or the decade after...

[speights boy]

As long as the west import all China's exports, the bubble will continue to grow.

Which will make it even more devastating when it bursts, as all bubbles do.

China's desertification , shortage of non polluted water sources and power supply problems are of concern also.

[Davo36]

Bob, you're dodging the question and starting to sound a bit arrogant.

You're telling everyone what you think they should be doing but not confirming what, if anything, you are doing, investment wise.

[Viking]

China has shut down hundreds of steel mills, power plants and many factories are shut down 2 days each week. Many have converted from one product to something else.
Wharehouse cannot get its clothes and other importers are having issues with getting product.
China is moving to rebuild its economy from based on export to being much more internally based. It is moving to shift more inland as it grows.
All been reported in the last week.

[Bob Kane]

Bob, you're dodging the question and starting to sound a bit arrogant.

Sorry.

You're telling everyone what you think they should be doing but not confirming what, if anything, you are doing, investment wise.

You're telling everyone what you think they should be doing

?? I am??
You've lost me, Davo. I'm telling people to do what?
I thought I was just explaining how the property market works and throwing up some figures to see what's happening now.

[eri]

New housing consent numbers kept falling in October
.......................
fell for the fourth consecutive month, dropping to its lowest point since July 2009, said Statistics New Zealand.
..............................the poor state of the housing market was clearly weighing on activity and sentiment around the country.
.................

The value of consents issued for residential buildings was $415 million in October 2010, down 14 per cent compared with October last year.
......................
"We do not expect the RBNZ to resume the process of returning monetary conditions to normal levels until March 2011."

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10691039

[eri]

Mr Thomas said the decision to call in receivers was made when the company realised the economic climate was unlikely to improve in the next three to five years.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=10690977

[mortgage broker]

It is a much better time to buy a property than to sell, thats for sure.

[kapitibeanman]

It is a much better time to buy a property than to sell, thats for sure.

Doesn't that beg the question? If the market continues to drift down, now will be perceived to have been a much better time to sell, surely.

[Viking]

HMM, well October new consents were down 20% on last year which was way down on the year before. We will manage about 12000 new homes this year less a couple of thousand destroyed in Christchurch.
The normal replacement and growth level is around 25000 so somewhere sometime soon houses will be in short supply.
Rentals are already getting harder to find and people are not moving unless they have to so hard to see values dropping in the mid sector. Are in the high price area but then the average person doesn't go there.