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Australia is out of recession - technically - are we next?

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  • Australia is out of recession - technically - are we next?

    Article in the SST - may suggest we are on the mend too?

    THE BRIGHT SIDE: According to the latest Real Estate Institute figures, the number of homes sold each month bottomed out in January when just 3706 properties changed hands. Since then, sales have steadily increased and in March, April and May remained above 6000.



    That's still well down on sales activity during the boom years when it was common for 9000 or 10,000 homes to sell each month. But it's also a substantial improvement on last year's doldrums, when monthly sales were mainly in the 4000- 5000 range.


    Median selling prices have also been rising steadily, up from $325,000 in January to $340,000 in May. But last month they took a breather and slipped back to $337,500.


    So does this mean the housing market has turned the corner and is now in a sustained recovery, or will it run out of puff and head into another winter of discontent?
    source

    There is a quote in that article that says House prices have dropped 10% from their peak - is that correct? I thought Bernard Hickey and others were saying at least double that percentage amount.

    Cheers,

    Donna
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    BusinessBlogs - the best business articles are found here

  • #2
    We are only in the middle, more to come.

    Reality is the financial causes have still not been fixed overseas. Much of the effects of unemplyment in USA is still to kick in also. This fallout takes some time to flow through each sector of business too.

    Think of this as a pause or regrouping. eg. The market taking a breather to work out exactly how far it will fall to.

    Historically if you look at previous slumps housing does take a slight increase for a small period then it plateuas or dips again.
    What makes this time any different? The key items to cause house price falls have not been fixed yet.
    How far it will go is anyones guess. But I suspect the next falls may only be minor now as some parts of the market took a hammering recently.

    Comment


    • #3
      the ozzies pull; gold, silver, iron, aluminium and uranium out of their soils

      we pull milk, cheese and trees from ours

      and the usa and europe subsidize their farmers and protect their markets from our products more than australian products

      so while they can just pull out we'll jut remain mired in for quite a bit yet

      imho
      have you defeated them?
      your demons

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by eri View Post
        the ozzies pull; gold, silver, iron, aluminium and uranium out of their soils

        we pull milk, cheese and trees from ours

        and the usa and europe subsidize their farmers and protect their markets from our products more than australian products

        so while they can just pull out we'll jut remain mired in for quite a bit yet

        imho
        Your mostly correct still Tourism is are 3rd biggest earner-Also don't forget we do have 3 gold mines here as well as Oil production which is increasing I do believe both could be much larger in time -plus on a population scale are fisheries are far better then the aussies badly run fisheries overall NZ needs to focus on increasing export production though smart investing...Sadly NZ are mad on investing in property which is fine for the building industy but not so good for export earnings ,If NZ'er would have the same madness on investing into NZ companies via Sharemarkets etc NZ export earnings would be much much higher..... just compare the NZX to the ASX

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by JBM View Post
          Your mostly correct still Tourism is are 3rd biggest earner-Also don't forget we do have 3 gold mines here as well as Oil production which is increasing I do believe both could be much larger in time -plus on a population scale are fisheries are far better then the aussies badly run fisheries overall NZ needs to focus on increasing export production though smart investing...Sadly NZ are mad on investing in property which is fine for the building industy but not so good for export earnings ,If NZ'er would have the same madness on investing into NZ companies via Sharemarkets etc NZ export earnings would be much much higher..... just compare the NZX to the ASX

          And the NZ Tourism industry is praying that back backers help them survive the current downturn............ I don't think tourism is a safe foreign income earner.

          NZ could increase its fish exports................. but at what cost to NZ fisheries. I agree NZrs need to invest in wealth creation not absorption. But as you point out NZrs haven't, how many ex-NZ beers are there? Most NZ beer made sees profits rush off shore to foreign investors.
          Last edited by Austrokiwi; 14-06-2009, 08:36 PM.
          The mission of any business enterprise should include the aim to develop economic conditions rather than simply react to them.

          Comment


          • #6
            you're dreaming if you think fishing is gonna make any usefully increased contribution to our exports .. we dont have a quota system cos there are so many fish out there we dont know what to do with 'em

            Having said that, increased ocean acidity looks likely to make fishing almost entirely a thing of the past in the not too distant future, so it could be argued there is no point in preserving fish stocks.

            [ducks for cover]

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by JBM View Post
              Your mostly correct still Tourism is are 3rd biggest earner-Also don't forget we do have 3 gold mines here as well as Oil production which is increasing I do believe both could be much larger in time -plus on a population scale are fisheries are far better then the aussies badly run fisheries overall NZ needs to focus on increasing export production though smart investing...Sadly NZ are mad on investing in property which is fine for the building industy but not so good for export earnings ,If NZ'er would have the same madness on investing into NZ companies via Sharemarkets etc NZ export earnings would be much much higher..... just compare the NZX to the ASX

              Invest in the sharemarket. Yeah right

              The property market gives you good tax breaks and good security.

              Invest your tax paid dollars in the NZ sharemarket and get a taxable return and then get conned by some crooked co directors. Thats the view of most kiwi investors of the sharemarket and with good reason.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Realtorman View Post
                Invest in the sharemarket. Yeah right

                The property market gives you good tax breaks and good security.

                Invest your tax paid dollars in the NZ sharemarket and get a taxable return and then get conned by some crooked co directors. Thats the view of most kiwi investors of the sharemarket and with good reason.

                My fear is the attitude represented by the above comment is the predominant factor in NZs decent down the OECD rankings.................. Shares have tax breaks and can give you good security............much better than some Bluechip properties.............i
                The mission of any business enterprise should include the aim to develop economic conditions rather than simply react to them.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Austrokiwi View Post
                  My fear is the attitude represented by the above comment is the predominant factor in NZs decent down the OECD rankings.................. Shares have tax breaks and can give you good security............much better than some Bluechip properties.............i
                  Hey, I agree.
                  Don't know about the good security thing though and the tax breaks are just too hard for the Mom and Pop investor.

                  Just reflecting on the thoughts of the average kiwi who has seen his finance co debentures put in the trash bin and used his feltex share certs to light the fire.

                  I fear the slide will continue unless some structural changes are made and I don't mean a capital gains tax on property.

                  Why do you think we had a brain drain.
                  I believe it will resume once this recession is over.

                  How is the weather in Austria?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Cheers

                    Well today in Vienna we have a clear blue sky and the temp is some where around 27-30 degrees. Humidity is getting up a bit.

                    On NZ like you I think that the Brain drain will continue on once the economy picks up. Th issue is NZ is so far away from the rest of the world......It means standard models don't apply.............. Politicians have to start to do things differently. Say single Personal tax rate across the board and make it attractive: say 20%. Make the interest of savings up to $50,000 tax exempt. Set company tax 2 % less than Aussi company tax rates set so that if Aussi changes company tax rates NZs adjusts automatically.
                    The mission of any business enterprise should include the aim to develop economic conditions rather than simply react to them.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Realtorman View Post
                      Invest in the sharemarket. Yeah right

                      The property market gives you good tax breaks and good security.

                      Invest your tax paid dollars in the NZ sharemarket and get a taxable return and then get conned by some crooked co directors. Thats the view of most kiwi investors of the sharemarket and with good reason.
                      This is exactly the reason why NZ's will keep falling behind Aussie we are a Nation of individuals, We distrust anything that we can't 100% own(most the time via are Aussie banks goodbye profits)Are sharemarket is a joke ,I myself invest over 1.5mill in the ASX I have all but sold out of the NZX are growth via new companies is very small even by PoP. standards most decent NZ companies get brought out by the aussies on the cheap as their investors believe in them ,NZ investrment dollars are far a few between as we'll all ticking are up on houses via the aussie banks.....

                      you're dreaming if you think fishing is gonna make any usefully increased contribution to our exports .. we dont have a quota system cos there are so many fish out there we dont know what to do with 'em

                      --What drugs you smoking-NZ does have a Quota system it has had one for a long time Now I don't believe in going out catching more n more fish is great growth path for a exports, but increasing the value the fact is NZ fish is the best in the world thats why are crayfish prices are the highest in the world ,look at the bluff oysters for one no other oyster comes close ,What I'd like to see is more support for fishermen and seafood farmers to grow smartly as 90% of NZ seafood is exported ever fishermen risking his life is worth 100 salesmen IMHO

                      Our seafood industry sustainably harvests about 600,000 tonnes from wild fisheries and aquaculture each year. The value of this harvest ranges from $1.2 to $1.5 billion per annum, of which the aquaculture industry contributes about $200m per annum. Seafood exports consistently rank as New Zealand’s fourth or fifth largest export earner

                      I firmly believe a high % of ,Fishing,Farming,forestry,NZ energy,etc should by NZ law have to be majorly owned by NZ'ers to operate in this great country...
                      Last edited by JBM; 15-06-2009, 11:50 AM.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I have often thought there must come a time when fish farms in NZ will be viable and have no quota.
                        Fish farmers could use inlets and bays all around NZ eg top of south island etc.

                        NZ needs to think smarter and finding resources we can export to pull our country up the OECD ladder. Relying on tourism will slow us down.

                        What about all the underground metals and resources in Southland they keep telling us exists? Lets open it up within reason and save the country. This way next recession it wont matter too much if tourism numbers drop.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I'm with you Whitt, beach the whales, pave the forests. If people want to see nature they can go to the museum and watch it on DVD :-)

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                          • #14
                            Now we have something to disagree about Dean! I do volunteer work for Prjoect Jonah. They are the people who save the whales when they try and strand. And I'm pretty keen on the bush too. It provides oxygen which we breathe. We're not too good without it.
                            Squadly dinky do!

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                            • #15
                              I was just being smart Davo. I'm all for saving everything within reason. My only gripe is when we put trees ahead of people. I don't mean in terms of property development but there are people dying everyday from starvation and preventable disease, children becoming sex slaves etc. I think our money is better spent on that than saving a tree if you get my drift.

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