Your home's worth less than you think

[muppet]

Your home's worth less than you think

By GREG NINNESS - Sunday Star Times | Sunday, 08 February 2009


The housing market may be in worse shape than official figures suggest, with median prices in some New Zealand suburbs dropping by more than a quarter over the past year - and the pain is predicted to last many more months.
Real Estate Institute (REINZ) figures show that the median dwelling price declined by a modest 4.78% between December 2007 and December 2008, but a suburb-by-suburb analysis of REINZ figures by the Sunday Star-Times shows that prices in two-thirds of all the main urban areas declined by more than the national median over the same period and in many places the price falls were dramatic.
In Auckland some of the biggest falls were on the North Shore where the median price in Devonport plunged 23% (-$155,000) over the year and Milford/Takapuna recorded a 16.6% drop (-$92,500).
The wealthy eastern suburbs also took a big hit with the median falling 12.9%, but it wasn't just the upmarket suburbs where prices took a hiding.
The median price in solidly working-class Glenfield slid 20.9% and in low-income Manurewa in South Auckland it dropped 9.1%.
In Wellington the market was more mixed, with the median in the expensive eastern suburbs down a steep 21.3%, while the medians in the Hutt Valley held their own or improved on the previous year.
Christchurch's most expensive suburbs of Fendalton and Merivale also showed a sharp drop of 14.1%.
Other areas to experience severe price falls were the holiday home playgrounds of Thames/Coromandel (-28.7%) and Queenstown (-18.1%).
The price falls were even greater when compared against those of November 2007 when the national median hit an all-time high, marking the turning point of the property boom.
And with figures released last week showing unemployment had crossed the 100,000 threshold, homeowners are being warned to brace for an extended period of market uncertainty.
"It's very difficult to predict which way it's going to go," REINZ national president Mike Elford said.
"I'd like to think we're getting through it [the downturn], but I just don't know. As long as people can retain their jobs I think we'll see some sort of upside on volume in the property market, but I'm not so sure on pricing.
"I think pricing's more stable now than it was three months ago, but I wouldn't like to say where the bottom is," he said.
Economist Rodney Dickens, of Strategic Risk Analysis, said prices were likely to keep falling until the middle of the year.
He said the market could be two-thirds to three-quarters of the way through the current cycle of falling prices.
"And they will keep falling until the number of sales picks up."
About 4000 homes are being sold each month, compared with 10,000 at the peak of the boom.
"It probably needs to get up to 6000 a month before the downward pressure on prices ends."
But he warned that once the recovery got under way, there was a danger that our low mortgage interest rates would overstimulate the economy and increase the risk of high inflation, forcing the Reserve Bank to increase rates again.
And that could kill off any recovery in prices just as it began.


http://www.stuff.co.nz/4841326a13.html

[muppet]

p r op e r t y: g oing d o w n...
Area Dec-07 Dec-08 Total change $ Total
change %
Whangarei 307,050 273,000 -34,050 -11.1
Hibiscus Coast 515,000 456,000 -59,000 -11.5
AUCKLAND REGION
Albany 508,000 565,000 57,000 +11.2
East Coast Bays 582,500 528,888 -53,612 -9.2
Glenfield 436,000 345,000 -91,000 -20.9
Birkenhead 515,250 499,750 -15,500 -3.0
Milford/Takapuna 558,000 465,500 -92,500 -16.6
Devonport 675,000 520,000 -155,000 -23.0
Henderson 369,500 372,000 2,500 +0.7
Glen Eden 360,000 335,000 -25,000 -6.9
Mt Roskill 463,000 411,000 -52,000 -11.2
Mt Albert 512,500 540,000 27,500 +5.4
City/Pt Chev 340,000 320,000 -20,000 -5.9
Mt Eden/Epsom 640,000 610,000 -30,000 -4.7
Eastern Suburbs 775,000 675,000 -100,000 -12.9
Ellerslie/Panmure 485,000 450,000 -35,000 -7.2
Onehunga/Penrose 389,500 377,100 -12,400 -3.2
Gulf Islands 530,000 457,500 -72,500 -13.7
Eastern Beaches 555,500 512,000 -43,500 -7.8
Papatoetoe 373,725 342,000 -31,725 -8.5
Manurewa 347,500 316,000 -31,500 -9.1
Papakura 380,000 358,000 -22,000 -5.8
Franklin 379,000 381,500 2,500 +0.7
Thames/Coromandel 470,000 335,000 -135,000 -28.7
Hamilton 337,500 314,500 -23,000 -4.6
Mt Maunganui 450,500 435,000 -15,500 -3.4
Tauranga 362,000 357,125 -4,875 -1.3
Rotorua 255,000 230,000 -25,000 -9.8
Taupo 382,500 345,000 -37,500 -9.8
Gisborne 257,500 240,000 -17,500 -6.8
Napier 309,000 291,000 -18,000 -5.8
Hastings 281,000 259,500 -21,500 -7.7
Wairarapa 266,000 240,000 -26,000 -9.8
New Plymouth 293,500 280,000 -13,500 -4.6
Hawera 210,000 225,000 15,000 +7.1
Wanganui 195,000 172,500 -22,500 -11.5
Palmerston North 267,500 250,000 -17,500 -6.6
Levin 236,250 182,020 -54,230 -23.0
Otaki/Paekakariki 337,000 317,500 -19,500 -5.8
WELLINGTON REGION
Upper Hutt 266,000 265,000 -1,000 -0.4
Lower Hutt 314,500 360,000 45,500 +14.5
Pukerua Bay/Tawa 360,000 385,000 25,000 +6.9
Northern Wellington 480,000 446,000 -34,000 -7.1
Western Wellington 445,000 500,000 55,000 +12.4
Southern Wellington 497,500 450,000 -47,500 -9.6
Eastern Wellington 585,750 461,000 -124,750 -21.3
Central Wellington 415,000 430,000 15,000 +3.6
Nelson 320,000 270,000 -50,000 -15.6
Marlborough 345,000 306,500 -38,500 -11.2
CHRISTCHURCH REGION
Avonhead 381,000 355,000 -26,000 -6.8
Fendalton/Merivale 492,500 423,000 -69,500 -14.1
Riccarton 311,000 280,000 -31,000 -10.0
Hei Hei/Hornby/
Sockburn 288,500 280,000 -8,500 -2.9
Halswell/Hoon Hay 381,000 310,000 -71,000 -18.7
Addington/Spreydon 296,000 284,000 -12,000 -4.1
Heathcote/Woolston 300,000 240,500 -59,500 -19.8
Aranui/Bexley/
Bromley/Linwood 217,500 205,000 -12,500 -5.7
Avondale/Burwood/
Parklands 356,250 360,000 3,750 +1.1
Bryndwr/Burnside 356,000 380,000 -24,000 -6.7
Dallington/Shirley/
Richmond 296,000 290,000 -6,000 -2.0
Belfast/Bishopdale/
Papanui 328,000 287,000 -41,000 -12.5
New Brighton/Nth
Beach 295,000 278,500 -16,500 -5.6
Kaiapoi 320,000 260,000 -60,000 -18.8
Rangiora 284,000 323,250 39,250 +13.8
Timaru 234,000 195,500 -38,500 -16.5
West Coast 185,000 225,000 40,000 +21.7
Queenstown 550,000 450,500 -99,500 -18.1
Dunedin 260,000 245,000 -15,000 -5.8
Invercargill 199,000 152,000 -47,000 -23.6

[BusyLizzy]

Yay!! Go Albany (+11.2%)

[Stevegoodey]

Lower Hutt +14.5% Sweeet

[McDuck]

Well, those numbers are exactly what I was thinking.

Where are all the flash houses in Albany?
(I still remember it as a small town you passed through on the way to somewhere else.
That albany meat store with the really loud red and black abstract art painting on the side).

Seen all the Industrial stuff...
but houses???

[CJ]

Yay!! Go Albany (+11.2%)

Yay. Birkenhead (-3% only).

What is interesting is they are using Dec to Dec figures. These have been out nearly a month (Jan figures should be out this week). Someone is either slow at research or it was a slow news day so they decided to plaster the shock headline across the paper.

[CJ]

Well, those numbers are exactly what I was thinking.

Where are all the flash houses in Albany?
(I still remember it as a small town you passed through on the way to somewhere else.
That albany meat store with the really loud red and black abstract art painting on the side).

Seen all the Industrial stuff...
but houses???

Albany is full of subdivisions. Large houses on small sections. The price increase is possible due to the mix of property sold (more large houses rather than small leaky townhouses).

[McDuck]

Albany is full of subdivisions. Large houses on small sections. The price increase is possible due to the mix of property sold (more large houses rather than small leaky townhouses).

Yes.
It's curious to see a city spring up around no port or river.
Gives me the geebies in a way.
To see it all laid on in the form of roads and mega marts and schools.
In a way it reminds me of those arabic palm reef towns...or the city of Petra.
Curious, very curious.

[CJ]

I dont think you can compare Albany to Petra though I do see where you are going with it.

Road are the new river. In the old days they used boats, now we use cars and trucks.

Ignoring traffic (very hard to do in Auckland) it is only 10 min from auckland and had plenty of land to build infill housing and leacky townhouses.

[donna]

Otaki/Paekakariki 337,000 317,500 -19,500 -5.8

-5.8% as an average for the area is probably correct. Though some areas included in this average would still be holding value well while others are diving and lowering the average over all.

Cheers,

Donna

[67910241]

Albany is full of subdivisions. Large houses on small sections. The price increase is possible due to the mix of property sold (more large houses rather than small leaky townhouses).

Practically no new apartment buildings being sold but still a few McMansions in the pipeline. And the newer ones are bigger than ever, almost nothing below about 2,500 square ft.

The sections in Albany are down somewhere between 25 and 40% from about 2 years ago.

[simplesean]

Muppet... In post #2... Where did you get those figures from? I get different figures from the REINZ website. Am I looking in the wrong place?

[muppet]

Hi Sean

http://www.stuff.co.nz/asset/Houseprices.pdf

The chart didn't come out how I wanted it to.

Regards

[simplesean]

Thanks Muppet

What I find weird is... That list of house prices is totally different to the median prices on the REINZ website. Take a look at Levins figures, on the stuff website it implies the median price has dropped 23%... but if you go to the REINZ website and look at their market trends... it shows that the median price has essentially stayed the same! Is it just me reading it all wrong or has somebody stuffed up? I would post a link but i'm not allowed apparently

[brettc]

I understood that reported house prices excluded the prices for forced sales. Can anyone confirm / elucidate?