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Originally posted by chook View PostUS interest costs on (currently $32 Trillion and rising rapidly) going to the moon, where and how does this end??
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US interest costs on (currently $32 Trillion and rising rapidly) going to the moon, where and how does this end??
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What does this mean moving forward?? Is this a good or bad thing?? If you look at the graph history says recessions happened around this contraction.
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Originally posted by chook View Post
"In some way I hope we do have a really hard landing so it can wake up many of the sheep that think we can just keep throwing around funds and borrow to wealth ...and get some real leaders in charge of NZ future" JBM
Dont worry this will happen...and the coffers will be empty..
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Originally posted by JBM View Post
Yeah no chance IMHO ....of course jeffa like to work on NZD devaluation aka so by 2030 yeah NZ property is worth twice what it is at present but everything has inflated and its like $30 for a block of cheese etc ....
IMHO not including mass devaluation of the NZD ....
my Base case NZ Property flatline to minor growth 1-3% per year to 2030... so around 20% up NZ property price by 2030 from present av. value
BEAR case NZ credit rating downgrade sticky rates held higher ..NZ economy continues to contract.. flatline NZ price to minor negative by 2030
BULL case ... New Govt actually supports primary and secondary businesses and we see major overseas investment in NZ business / growth in GDP ...major rise in wage growth an general inflation continues to move higher alongside NZ property ..we could see 30-50% rise by 2030 ,,,,,
..... we'll see who's right by 2030 ...
One thing I know those invested in resources will do very well ...
By any standard, China’s economic performance over the last three decades has been impressive. GDP growth averaged 10 percent a year, and over 500 million people were lifted out of poverty. China is now the world’s largest exporter and manufacturer, and its second largest economy. Even if growth moderates, China is likely to become a high-income economy and the world’s largest economy before 2030, notwithstanding the fact that its per capita income would still be a fraction of the average in advanced economies
>>>>>>>>>>>
By 2030 In China with some 90+ Cities with population of 5mill+ are predicted to move to move towards wealthy modern living standards with ongoing hug increase in middle classes and wealthy ... in the USA only one city is larger than 5mill NY at present ...
>>>
What will be the economic growth of India in 2030?
India set to be a $7 trillion economy by 2030, powered by triple engines of rapid financialisation, clean energy transition and digital revolution. Factors like demographic dividend and domestic consumption have often been cited as the engines of India's economic growth...
By 2030 Myanmar GDP will be 50Bill larger than our predicted 410Bill....
NZ = Aging divided nation anti lowest cost clean energy
.... love pumping all our money into the biggest houses we can tick up ...
hate anyone that succeeds in business esp anything to do with primary industry .
... Maximise TAX and REGs those that want to drive primary industry wealth....but in turn support anything in the name of CLEAN GREEN 100% pure NZ let's plant billion trees... lets tax primary industries main form of transport !!
..Our woke leaders are more focused on spreading the native language and promoting unisex toilets , wealth taxes .. pronouns ...living in the past and having fantasy ideals of future net zero living without any sane practically of how it can be done esp when the majority of the nation love the Fossil fuels....
..really when you think about are assets as a nation and where we are heading ..we must surely be one of the most backwards run nations in the world... one just has to do is look at the last several years and then look and see around 40% of NZ voters want to keep the same guys in power at the next election ?!!!! WTF NZ!!!!
In some way I hope we do have a really hard landing so it can wake up many of the sheep that think we can just keep throwing around funds and borrow to wealth ...and get some real leaders in charge of NZ future
There is no such thing as “government” money when it comes to spending. Governments get their funding from taxpayers either directly through taxes or through debt, which taxpayers must service and eventually repay....
Dont worry this will happen...and the coffers will be empty..
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Originally posted by Chris W View Post
https://www.propertytalk.com/forum/f...146#post735612
For the record,
1) Jeffa's base case is double by 2030 in Auckland and Wellington (that is 10.4% p.a for the next 7 years from July 2023 to July 2030)
2) Jeffa's bull case is triple by 2030 in Auckland and Wellington (that is 16.9% p.a for the next 7 years from July 2023 to July 2030)
Here is his reasoning (highlights and underline are mine and highlighted for emphasis):
I'm still bullish on the New Zealand property market long term and still have a base case of prices doubling by 2030 and a bull case of prices tripling in our big cities Auckland and Wellington.
Here's my reasons:
-Immigration looks to be favoured by both main political parties
-Free trade deal with Europe
-Agressive loosening of the monetary policy in China
- Artificial intelligence driving down inflation leading to negative interest rates
-A.I increasing productivity
- A continuing period of growth in the US sharemarket which has been the case for 50 years regardless of war, financial crisis, pandemic, terrorism and many other black swan events.
Source:
https://www.propertytalk.com/forum/f...e33#post735596
IMHO not including mass devaluation of the NZD ....
my Base case NZ Property flatline to minor growth 1-3% per year to 2030... so around 20% up NZ property price by 2030 from present av. value
BEAR case NZ credit rating downgrade sticky rates held higher ..NZ economy continues to contract.. flatline NZ price to minor negative by 2030
BULL case ... New Govt actually supports primary and secondary businesses and we see major overseas investment in NZ business / growth in GDP ...major rise in wage growth an general inflation continues to move higher alongside NZ property ..we could see 30-50% rise by 2030 ,,,,,
..... we'll see who's right by 2030 ...
One thing I know those invested in resources will do very well ...
By any standard, China’s economic performance over the last three decades has been impressive. GDP growth averaged 10 percent a year, and over 500 million people were lifted out of poverty. China is now the world’s largest exporter and manufacturer, and its second largest economy. Even if growth moderates, China is likely to become a high-income economy and the world’s largest economy before 2030, notwithstanding the fact that its per capita income would still be a fraction of the average in advanced economies
>>>>>>>>>>>
By 2030 In China with some 90+ Cities with population of 5mill+ are predicted to move to move towards wealthy modern living standards with ongoing hug increase in middle classes and wealthy ... in the USA only one city is larger than 5mill NY at present ...
>>>
What will be the economic growth of India in 2030?
India set to be a $7 trillion economy by 2030, powered by triple engines of rapid financialisation, clean energy transition and digital revolution. Factors like demographic dividend and domestic consumption have often been cited as the engines of India's economic growth...
By 2030 Myanmar GDP will be 50Bill larger than our predicted 410Bill....
NZ = Aging divided nation anti lowest cost clean energy
.... love pumping all our money into the biggest houses we can tick up ...
hate anyone that succeeds in business esp anything to do with primary industry .
... Maximise TAX and REGs those that want to drive primary industry wealth....but in turn support anything in the name of CLEAN GREEN 100% pure NZ let's plant billion trees... lets tax primary industries main form of transport !!
..Our woke leaders are more focused on spreading the native language and promoting unisex toilets , wealth taxes .. pronouns ...living in the past and having fantasy ideals of future net zero living without any sane practically of how it can be done esp when the majority of the nation love the Fossil fuels....
..really when you think about are assets as a nation and where we are heading ..we must surely be one of the most backwards run nations in the world... one just has to do is look at the last several years and then look and see around 40% of NZ voters want to keep the same guys in power at the next election ?!!!! WTF NZ!!!!
In some way I hope we do have a really hard landing so it can wake up many of the sheep that think we can just keep throwing around funds and borrow to wealth ...and get some real leaders in charge of NZ future
There is no such thing as “government” money when it comes to spending. Governments get their funding from taxpayers either directly through taxes or through debt, which taxpayers must service and eventually repay....
Last edited by JBM; 14-07-2023, 01:02 AM.
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There seems to be a myth or more likely a miss understanding that the kiwi property market is insulated from international markets, and move's only on forces in New Zealand. This is incorrect, Property prices are influenced by interest rates, interest rates are influenced (manipulated) by the RBNZ. The RBNZs job is to
worth seeing this reply from Jeffa.
cheers
Donna
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^^ Yes this is why I am asking the question. Not everyone has the same opinion I get that. I personally value all our regular posters opinions. Would I be right in summing it up as....
huge pain in 2024 followed by a ridiculous turnaround either late 2024, early 2025 - through to the end of the decade. Then (according to some replies I've read - another recession and maybe a war.
Please jump in and say where you think events may differ from my observations of posts.
cheers,
Donna
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Originally posted by Perry View PostShhhhh, don't tell anyone else, . . .
(5 July 2023)
https://www.propertytalk.com/forum/f...146#post735612
For the record,
1) Jeffa's base case is double by 2030 in Auckland and Wellington (that is 10.4% p.a for the next 7 years from July 2023 to July 2030)
2) Jeffa's bull case is triple by 2030 in Auckland and Wellington (that is 16.9% p.a for the next 7 years from July 2023 to July 2030)
Here is his reasoning (highlights and underline are mine and highlighted for emphasis):
I'm still bullish on the New Zealand property market long term and still have a base case of prices doubling by 2030 and a bull case of prices tripling in our big cities Auckland and Wellington.
Here's my reasons:
-Immigration looks to be favoured by both main political parties
-Free trade deal with Europe
-Agressive loosening of the monetary policy in China
- Artificial intelligence driving down inflation leading to negative interest rates
-A.I increasing productivity
- A continuing period of growth in the US sharemarket which has been the case for 50 years regardless of war, financial crisis, pandemic, terrorism and many other black swan events.
Source:
https://www.propertytalk.com/forum/f...e33#post735596Last edited by Chris W; 08-07-2023, 02:23 PM.
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Originally posted by donna View Post^^ I suppose I was thinking what events will happen. So locally how bad will it be e.g.
Depression
20% unemployment
Huge number of mortgagee sales
Tanking house prices
Cheers
Donna
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Shhhhh, don't tell anyone else, . . .
Originally posted by donna View PostDepression
20% unemployment
Huge number of mortgagee sales
Tanking house prices
Originally posted by Jeffa View PostAs K .Jeffa stated on this thread back in February
The housing market is on the way back up..
"How international market forces affect NZ property..."
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Originally posted by donna View Post^^ I suppose I was thinking what events will happen. So locally how bad will it be e.g.
Depression
20% unemployment
Huge number of mortgagee sales
Tanking house prices
Cheers
Donna
Leave a comment:
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