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Financial Armageddon!!

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  • Originally posted by chook View Post
    Evergrande & five other Chinese property development companies now officially in DEFAULT. The Chinese Govt tried to cover this up but the inevitable has happened..

    The general public still don't realise this is the catalyst for a massive worldwide financial meltdown in the coming months...

    Ignore at your own peril fellow pagans..
    There is another option. Or two. Or maybe more?

    What do you think will be the consequences?

    One thing I'm getting at is: oh, shit! What can I do?

    I.e. Ignoring it is one thing.

    Knowing what to do about it is quite another.
    Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

    Comment


    • Not so fast….

      Beijing has moved to ring-fence Evergrande and set up a risk management committee to manage a restructuring of the company to prevent a crash.
      Aljazeera

      cheers

      Donna
      SEARCH PropertyTalk, About PropertyTalk

      BusinessBlogs - the best business articles are found here

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Perry View Post
        There is another option. Or two. Or maybe more?

        What do you think will be the consequences?

        One thing I'm getting at is: oh, shit! What can I do?

        I.e. Ignoring it is one thing.

        Knowing what to do about it is quite another.
        Banks, Lenders, Hedge funds, Pension funds and any investment linked to China will be scrambling to minimize contagion or exit. This has already been happening for last 2 months with companies taking huge hits to just get out.
        Dont think this will be all over by Wednesday, this will be a slow train wreck to play out..

        Comment


        • As with any world events, Its almost impossible to figure out what the impact would be as generally the information is tightly held till it turns into a major disaster and hits headlines. Or they will contain and absorb it and it will be another revenue stream for newspapers. The reality is, no one can predict markets, most are way off the mark, very few get lucky in their predictions.

          Its of course always wise to plan and structure investments to minimise risk to any downturns, general investment 101
          Living a more meaningful & enhanced life with investments, business and blogging. www.theFIminator.com

          Comment


          • I think NZ Property is in a complete bubble esp. as chart below only too early 2020....I've been looking at homes on the market at present in some small towns to larger centres that have seen massive spikes in values since early 2020!!!!!

            NZ may like japan reached a peak very soon and see a major reduction in FOMO and price to trend downwards for many years ....

            Many NZ areas 2-3% rental yields ??? rates already higher 1yr fixed 3.6% lowest going ...... you can go and buy BLUE CHIP miners like BHP 120billion cap and get a much higher yield






            Comment


            • Is anything - blue chip or otherwise - as good a hedge against inflation as NZ residential property, right now?

              Yield isn't the be-all and end-all.
              Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

              Comment


              • Originally posted by JBM View Post
                I think NZ Property is in a complete bubble esp. as chart below only too early 2020....I've been looking at homes on the market at present in some small towns to larger centres that have seen massive spikes in values since early 2020!!!!!

                NZ may like japan reached a peak very soon and see a major reduction in FOMO and price to trend downwards for many years ....

                Many NZ areas 2-3% rental yields ??? rates already higher 1yr fixed 3.6% lowest going ...... you can go and buy BLUE CHIP miners like BHP 120billion cap and get a much higher yield
                It has been suggested that there is now a FOOP - Fear Of OverPaying.
                If enough believe that prices have topped then they won't buy until they are cheaper.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by JBM View Post
                  I think NZ Property is in a complete bubble esp. as chart below only too early 2020....I've been looking at homes on the market at present in some small towns to larger centres that have seen massive spikes in values since early 2020!!!!!

                  NZ may like japan reached a peak very soon and see a major reduction in FOMO and price to trend downwards for many years ....

                  Many NZ areas 2-3% rental yields ??? rates already higher 1yr fixed 3.6% lowest going ...... you can go and buy BLUE CHIP miners like BHP 120billion cap and get a much higher yield





                  Or a well chosen Index or an ETF - diversification is the key , AMP All country or Kernel Global -- returns average 16% oks better Country looks better

                  Comment


                  • ETFs are certainly a good one to have to keep investments diversified. SmartShares do some good ones. Gold is the other option to look into. Does anyone know of any Gold related stocks or ETFs in NZ?
                    Living a more meaningful & enhanced life with investments, business and blogging. www.theFIminator.com

                    Comment


                    • I worked out if we sold our family home and went back renting and Diverse invested the 1.3mill ... High Yield Shares/ETF etc , term Deposits across BB- AA class providers, paid off small commercial property loan.... My family would have around $2200pw to live on after TAX(this includes income from my seasonal fishing job 100-120days pa ....nil extra income from wife etc )..

                      Sadly Wife isn't keen ... which I understand we have a very nice home and kids in school ..and its very hard to get decent Rentals locally ..

                      Still a side of me thinks being completely debt free ,,Having a large pile of easy to access Capital which is diverse across -Bank/Finance,O&G,Commercial property Rural national tenant,Copper base metals Iron ores etc ..great free cashflows (even if rent is $700pw) could be a Great place to be going into 2022-23 ...

                      we like many areas across NZ we have a major shortage of good fair priced sections to build houses .. but as anyone that follows the markets knows the greatest fix for shortages is higher prices its not like we have a Shortage of land to build houses ... If people are happy to pay $500k for a 600-800sqm flat nothing amazing section in a small 5-6k population township surrounded by thousands of Acres of flat land ?? Surely the Greedy developers will lobby local council to approve a major Sub-division ...

                      I seen it happen in Queenstown ... with Jack point ... sections with valuation of $400k whole streets going for $175k a year later when title come due thanks to the GFC ....everything can change when Finance dry's up >>>



                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by JBM View Post
                        I worked out if we sold our family home and went back renting and Diverse invested the 1.3mill ... High Yield Shares/ETF etc , term Deposits across BB- AA class providers, paid off small commercial property loan.... My family would have around $2200pw to live on after TAX(this includes income from my seasonal fishing job 100-120days pa ....nil extra income from wife etc )..

                        Sadly Wife isn't keen ... which I understand we have a very nice home and kids in school ..and its very hard to get decent Rentals locally ..

                        Still a side of me thinks being completely debt free ,,Having a large pile of easy to access Capital which is diverse across -Bank/Finance,O&G,Commercial property Rural national tenant,Copper base metals Iron ores etc ..great free cashflows (even if rent is $700pw) could be a Great place to be going into 2022-23 ...

                        we like many areas across NZ we have a major shortage of good fair priced sections to build houses .. but as anyone that follows the markets knows the greatest fix for shortages is higher prices its not like we have a Shortage of land to build houses ... If people are happy to pay $500k for a 600-800sqm flat nothing amazing section in a small 5-6k population township surrounded by thousands of Acres of flat land ?? Surely the Greedy developers will lobby local council to approve a major Sub-division ...

                        I seen it happen in Queenstown ... with Jack point ... sections with valuation of $400k whole streets going for $175k a year later when title come due thanks to the GFC ....everything can change when Finance dry's up >>>


                        I seen it happen in Queenstown ... with Jack point ... sections with valuation of $400k whole streets going for $175k a year later when title come due thanks to the GFC ....everything can change when Finance dry's up >>>

                        I saw the same thing happen 2008 GFC, one example Taupo (Kinloch etc) people actually fighting to get in front of each other as they stood in line to buy sections from the developer 2005 - 2006.
                        2008 suddenly lots of sections with for sale signs and massive reductions. These sections sat for years unsold with some going mortgagee once in a while... for any interested buyers that did have some money it was a turkey shoot, but the market had turned and no one was buying.

                        Exact same thing will happen this time just watch..
                        Last edited by chook; 16-12-2021, 08:54 AM.

                        Comment


                        • If things do tank...this could have a even bigger impact on NZ than the last GFC...a lot more exposure this time and avg household debt very high too. So wont be a good thing from a macro perspective, although will present opportunity as always for the well heeled
                          Living a more meaningful & enhanced life with investments, business and blogging. www.theFIminator.com

                          Comment


                          • This time will be way bigger than GFC

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by chook View Post
                              I seen it happen in Queenstown ... with Jack point ... sections with valuation of $400k whole streets going for $175k a year later when title come due thanks to the GFC ....everything can change when Finance dry's up >>>

                              I saw the same thing happen 2008 GFC, one example Taupo (Kinloch etc) people actually fighting to get in front of each other as they stood in line to buy sections from the developer 2005 - 2006.
                              2008 suddenly lots of sections with for sale signs and massive reductions. These sections sat for years unsold with some going mortgagee once in a while... for any interested buyers that did have some money it was a turkey shoot, but the market had turned and no one was buying.

                              Exact same thing will happen this time just watch..


                              People were willing to buy a section at Jack's Point, Queenstown for $400,000, then a year later the selling prices are $175,000 (56% lower price than a year prior).

                              During the period of elevated price risks, the market participants don't know that they're in a period of elevated price risks.

                              It only becomes apparent to the market participants in hindsight, after the prices have fallen - then all the narratives start coming out about how it was so obvious (in hindsight).

                              Similar with all other asset price bubbles.




                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by chook View Post

                                Banks, Lenders, Hedge funds, Pension funds and any investment linked to China will be scrambling to minimize contagion or exit. This has already been happening for last 2 months with companies taking huge hits to just get out.
                                Dont think this will be all over by Wednesday, this will be a slow train wreck to play out..
                                Evergrande saga deepens..

                                Shares halted from trading
                                Ordered to demolish 39 luxury apartments worth $1.7 billion

                                All Chinese developers have 197 billion of payments due in January alone..

                                This isn't the end this is just the beginning folks..its gona be big.

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