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Financial Armageddon!!

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  • Originally posted by chook View Post
    "Making stuff up", "The cry of all dreamers", "The banks and govts wont let this happen" Hello Hello anyone there??
    Bob Kane has been saying, over and over again, for the last 5 years it seems that property only goes up, never down.

    And so now he buggers off. Of course.
    Squadly dinky do!

    Comment


    • Was there a time period attached to those predictions?

      If it was spread over (say) ten years, Kane's probably right.
      Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

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      • Well I think the statements are that a) House prices have never gone down and b) They never will.
        Squadly dinky do!

        Comment


        • In a sense, I'm not disagreeing. But . . .

          month-to-month
          or
          year-to-year
          or
          every five years
          or
          every ten years . .

          Thinking especially of your own experience with the Olly's misguided guesstimates.
          Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Perry View Post
            Done! So now, here we are.

            How's that prediction looking, folks?
            Not bad really, only 12 months out

            Remember we are talking usually decade + long historical events here. And if you say it hasnt dropped below 13,000 yet, its still on its way down..

            Comment


            • What is The Actual Number, Now?

              Originally posted by PTILoveYou View Post
              Chinese sharemarket will crash sometime this year...
              Originally posted by speights boy View Post
              About what percentage correction do you expect this to be?
              Originally posted by PTILoveYou View Post
              Judging from the last crash, and the amount of speculation is in China, I say 60% drop, from say 5000 points to 2000 points.
              Anyone know if that 2000 figure has been arrived at?
              Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

              Comment


              • Originally posted by WINZ View Post
                I’ve given a time-frame before, but we’re expecting from Q2 2018 onwards (likely late ‘18 - early ‘19) - you can hold me to that.

                Damage - impossible to quantify but the GFC was approx $22 trillion in asset devaluations and direct economic damage (i.e lost output).

                I would expect that the US stock marker will at least half (50-60%) which alone is probably $20 trillion. Add in real estate, bonds (currently $11 trillion are yielding negative returns globally), global assets etc and you have a large sum of money.
                Originally posted by Bob Kane View Post
                Good man.
                A date: mid 2019 at latest
                Magnitude: US stock market at least half what it is now (Dow Jones: 16 Jan 2018 = 25,792)
                My interpretation of this: you are claiming the Dow Jones will drop below 13,000 before June 2019.
                Is this right?

                Perry, can you set this up on that trusty diary of your please?
                Originally posted by Perry View Post
                Done! So now, here we are.

                How's that prediction looking, folks?
                For those of you who follow (and understand) the shear market, how are those numbers looking now? (1 June 2020)
                Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Perry View Post
                  For those of you who follow (and understand) the shear market, how are those numbers looking now? (1 June 2020)
                  See Perry there is more outside property hehe jks :-)? I know you shorted on the down and got in on the up :-P

                  On serious note, is good to see a rebound.

                  Low 18591.93 (March 23 2020)

                  Current ~25400

                  High this year was ~29400

                  Even better when you are the dude off the TV show "Billions", until you get caught haha. Lock up and throw away the key.



                  Last edited by OnTheMove; 01-06-2020, 10:12 PM.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Perry View Post
                    For those of you who follow (and understand) the shear market, how are those numbers looking now? (1 June 2020)
                    Brilliant got hit hard during march watched all my profits for 19/20 get wiped ...shifted some funds around with Gold stock focus and just 2 months later near 10% higher that my highest portfolio high in FEB .. dirt cheap money + FEAR Business unemployment civil war + Property bubbles.... I'm more than happy to be holding my stocks
                    Gold price outlook very bullish... copper also trending higher

                    Comment


                    • Whether the perceived value goes up or down, what are / were the dividends? Or ROI - if you prefer.

                      I have only one parcel of shares - in the local port company. It's just advised no six-monthly dividend. No idea what's happened to the value of those shares, though.

                      I have rentals and the rent has kept coming in at the same levels. No idea what's happened to the value of those rentals, though.
                      Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Perry View Post
                        I have only one parcel of shares - in the local port company. It's just advised no six-monthly dividend. No idea what's happened to the value of those shares, though.
                        Port of Napier I presume - you can see the share price here
                        https://www.napierport.co.nz/investor-centre/#share

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Perry View Post
                          Whether the perceived value goes up or down, what are / were the dividends? Or ROI - if you prefer.
                          Many companies have stopped dividends for now - until they see where all this is going (company profit wise).
                          Shares went down (most but not all - some went up) and then went back up.
                          Most have regained the majority of their value.
                          Was a good opportunity to buy a few more of good companies.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Wayne View Post
                            Port of Napier I presume - you can see the share price here
                            https://www.napierport.co.nz/investor-centre/#share
                            Thanks for that link. I do not even know what I paid for the shares I have.

                            I was a part of the HB community that wanted ownership to stay local. The initial AGM was interesting. Lots of ma & pa investors and a lot of familiar faces. One enduring memory was the announcement that 97% of the port employees had become shareholders at the IPO. They wondered - out loud - if that might be something of a record.
                            Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

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                            • Originally posted by Wayne View Post
                              Many companies have stopped dividends for now - until they see where all this is going (company profit wise).
                              Shares went down (most but not all - some went up) and then went back up.
                              Most have regained the majority of their value.
                              Was a good opportunity to buy a few more of good companies.
                              Yeah I have reduced the dividends from the properties too until I know which way things are heading too!

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by watchful View Post
                                Forced sales don't have to be advertised. Kiwis do not earn enough to carry high losses if interest rates climb much. All I have read at my intermittent PT views lately are about -CF in AK with stability in capital gains. The era of capital gains in NZ has gone for now.

                                Changing market and my prediction is quick Asian withdrawal at any price in the next 6 months. Lots of supply soon with no backing from banks to lend to investors unless prices drop which banks will not stomach. A standoff until banks come under pressure then all bad.

                                Originally posted by Davo36 View Post
                                Look this could happen, but it's not a certainty at all.

                                Things might flatten off for a bit and then take off again, who knows?
                                How's all that speculation looking, now, in July 2020?
                                Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

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