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Financial Armageddon!!

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  • The Ghost of Predictions Past

    Originally posted by WINZ View Post
    I’ve given a time-frame before, but we’re expecting from Q2 2018 onwards (likely late ‘18 - early ‘19) - you can hold me to that.

    Damage - impossible to quantify but the GFC was approx $22 trillion in asset devaluations and direct economic damage (i.e lost output).

    I would expect that the US stock marker will at least half (50-60%) which alone is probably $20 trillion. Add in real estate, bonds (currently $11 trillion are yielding negative returns globally), global assets etc and you have a large sum of money.
    Originally posted by Bob Kane View Post
    Good man.
    A date: mid 2019 at latest
    Magnitude: US stock market at least half what it is now (Dow Jones: 16 Jan 2018 = 25,792)
    My interpretation of this: you are claiming the Dow Jones will drop below 13,000 before June 2019.
    Is this right?

    Perry, can you set this up on that trusty diary of your please?
    Done! So now, here we are.

    How's that prediction looking, folks?
    Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

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    • Don't worry Its coming Perry, and the longer it goes on the worse the fallout will be, 2020 will be a very interesting year. Trump administration has been pumping "Methodone" into their economy so they can make it to the November elections without the house of cards collapsing, four and a half trillion was pumped in at the last share market jitters period a couple of months ago. Enjoy the show Boom!

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      • The problem with "it's coming," is that such will likely come true.

        One day.

        Just no one knows quite when.

        Doesn't stop all the failed guesses, though.
        Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

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        • I bet my life that it will happen before my death. ;-)

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          • "Don't worry it's coming"
            That's a sure sign that the author is just making stuff up and enjoys spreading doom.
            "Next year" - the cry of all dreamers.
            As has been said before, the banks and governments won't let a crash happen.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Bob Kane View Post
              As has been said before, the banks and governments won't let a crash happen.
              As said before the last crashes too.

              No one "lets" a crash happen. They just forget to stop pushing when they reach the edge of the clif.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by chook View Post
                Dpumping "Methodone" into their economy so they can make it to the November elections without the house of cards collapsing, four and a half trillion was pumped in at the last share market jitters period a couple of months ago. Enjoy the show Boom!
                With the US stock guys doing dodgy deals like using defunct but open businesses, tying them to take Chinese buinsesses, or stretching the truth of production beyond ridiculous. Is another US crash feasible?

                How much did John Key pump into the NZ economy during the 2008 GFC to halt us at a small 4% not the 40% we likely deserved given we have nothing much more going for us than Ireland at the time? In Dollars was there a figure?

                Given personal lending is 150% to annual GDP, I cant see there being a bail out should it occur again?

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                • Hedonics Again?

                  Originally posted by Bluekiwi in Jan 2016 View Post
                  Where will people put money with shares about to crash, where will people go with economies cracking, and political issues snowballing......
                  Originally posted by eri View Post
                  google's chief economist thinks the problem is not the poor productivity of the modern economy, but the 70 year old tools economists use to try and measure it.
                  Did the shares crash?

                  As for tools, should we abandon other measuring tools such as meters, centimetres and millimetres, too? They'd be well over 70 years old, wouldn't they?
                  Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

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                  • Six Months Later

                    New Zealand at risk of a house price crash: Bloomberg
                    Originally posted by Chris W View Post
                    Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

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                    • I suppose the nationwide anti-virus lockdown is a sort of financial Armageddon.
                      It's going to be a rough ride, folks.
                      <Enter all the conspiracy theorists.>
                      Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

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                      • Perry are you asking people to make predictions so you can tells us in 6 months they did not come true? Everyone is sick and tired of this game...

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Perry View Post
                          <Enter all the conspiracy theorists.>
                          They have been out of force for a while.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by chook View Post
                            Don't worry Its coming Perry, and the longer it goes on the worse the fallout will be, 2020 will be a very interesting year. Trump administration has been pumping "Methodone" into their economy so they can make it to the November elections without the house of cards collapsing, four and a half trillion was pumped in at the last share market jitters period a couple of months ago. Enjoy the show Boom!

                            Hello Hello anybody there?
                            Last edited by chook; 31-03-2020, 10:24 AM. Reason: mistake

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Bob Kane View Post
                              "Don't worry it's coming"
                              That's a sure sign that the author is just making stuff up and enjoys spreading doom.
                              "Next year" - the cry of all dreamers.
                              As has been said before, the banks and governments won't let a crash happen.
                              "Making stuff up", "The cry of all dreamers", "The banks and govts wont let this happen" Hello Hello anyone there??

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Perry View Post
                                I suppose the nationwide anti-virus lockdown is a sort of financial Armageddon.
                                It's going to be a rough ride, folks.
                                <Enter all the conspiracy theorists.>
                                It certainly is 2020 Great Depression 2.0 .. commercial property is going to get crushed(Res property less so)... I see adidas has stop paying rents along with other muti-nationals retail giants overseas in Euro .. so much for contracts when they can use COVID19 as an excuse not to pay the landlord aka protecting capital first...
                                this is not going be over anytime soon ....very rough ride for sure

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