From the Front Line

[tpr2]

Hi All

We talk lots about how the market has ground to a holt and we read about the crash. I was thinking though why not hear it from the horses mouth so to speak.

I remember talking to a solicitor a while back who last year had two floors of an office building and now has only one. He said he is now doing less than 10 % of what he was doing last year.

Thats massive and from the coal face. We see the auction rates and hear how tough it is for the Real Estate agencies but what about the mortgage brokers, the valuers, the solicitors, the conveyancers the property managers the taxi companies (thats right a corporate cab drivr told me today as he drove me back from the airport that since the property crash there are fewer people travelling overseas or even locally and so they have less business).

I'm interested in hearing how things are for other people in the associated industries of Real Estate.

[spurner]

Sounds like you're going into competition with Mr Tony Alexander !!!

Hi All

We talk lots about how the market has ground to a holt and we read about the crash. I was thinking though why not hear it from the horses mouth so to speak.

I remember talking to a solicitor a while back who last year had two floors of an office building and now has only one. He said he is now doing less than 10 % of what he was doing last year.

Thats massive and from the coal face. We see the auction rates and hear how tough it is for the Real Estate agencies but what about the mortgage brokers, the valuers, the solicitors, the conveyancers the property managers the taxi companies (thats right a corporate cab drivr told me today as he drove me back from the airport that since the property crash there are fewer people travelling overseas or even locally and so they have less business).

I'm interested in hearing how things are for other people in the associated industries of Real Estate.

[chook]

went into mega mitre 10 in napier with a builder on a saturday afternoon to get some building supplies and the place was COMPLETELY EMPTY! i asked one of the assisstant guys what the story was and he said,...`its been like this for 2 months, NO builders, NO DIY people, NO tradesmen, NO NOTHING!!!`considering the place used to be teaming with activity especially on weekends i was quite amazed,
just shows the domino effect will be playing out, with layoffs of employees, and reduced profits from companies etc

[whitt]

Great idea TPR2

I know several tradespeople and it looks like they have been slowing down for quite some time. Previously they had plenty of work but now even mum and Dads are reluctant to splash out for Reno's, new builds etc

Discretionary spending for retail took a huge dive post Xmas. Up to 40% decrease I calculated from my experience.

I guess somethings will show first in the market place during tough times. The RE agents may see slowdown quickly ( but I doubt they admit it generally. They always talk up a market) flowing through to others such as conveyancing etc. ( since settlement is usually a month or two after a contract signing)

[whitt]

Layoffs.
I guess will be inevitable in the media in coming months. Businesses will have to cut staff or their hours.

PS
As a business owner. I would suggest they cut hours or days off staff if possible. That way if market corrects they do not need to employ again.

[tpr2]

Great idea TPR2

I know several tradespeople and it looks like they have been slowing down for quite some time. Previously they had plenty of work but now even mum and Dads are reluctant to splash out for Reno's, new builds etc

Thanks Whitt.
Certainly the solicitors doing conveyancing was a simple correlation however it surprised me the taxi driver suggesting that their business was down because of the property crash.

I hear lots of stories about mortgage brokers writing only a fraction of what they did last year.

I'm wondering when the insurance agents will start to feel the pinch when people finally sit down, start doing budgets and decide that insurance (life, income protection etc) is an expense they can do without.

[tpr2]

Layoffs.
I guess will be inevitable in the media in coming months. Businesses will have to cut staff or their hours.

PS
As a business owner. I would suggest they cut hours or days off staff if possible. That way if market corrects they do not need to employ again.

I agree whitt.
Aussie has not had the decline yet over here has but it has started and already my financial planning arm has had clients turning up with the lump sums from redundancies.

Good idea about the less hours if it can be done.

[kalovatt]

I am in aviation-air traffic control- and there has definately been a fall-off in the amount of traffic we are shifting now. Although this possibly has more to do with the fuel prices, but the housing slump probably also means less travellers - emptier aircraft, so the airlines cut back.

I would imagine you could name almost every profession and they would in some way have been affected by the slump

[mortgage broker]

I am doing a lot more of releasing equity, buying time etc. Also doing a lot more commercial lending then before.

[whitt]

Hamish

That is interesting. Has this occurred recently/ last few months?
And was it quiet the 6 months previous?


If so maybe it is a sign market could have plateaued for the time being and is having a breather.

You and agents must be in the front line to notice any shift in the market early.

[Steve Netwriter]

went into mega mitre 10 in napier with a builder on a saturday afternoon to get some building supplies and the place was COMPLETELY EMPTY! i asked one of the assisstant guys what the story was and he said,...`its been like this for 2 months, NO builders, NO DIY people, NO tradesmen, NO NOTHING!!!`considering the place used to be teaming with activity especially on weekends i was quite amazed,
just shows the domino effect will be playing out, with layoffs of employees, and reduced profits from companies etc

Same here. Reminds me of Japan just before it crashed.

[CJ]

I would imagine you could name almost every profession and they would in some way have been affected by the slump

I hear that liquidators and corporate recovery are rushed off their feet.

Public transport is showing good growth and is hiring more drivers.

Public sector should also remain strong (ie. teachers, nurses, overpaid fat cat bureaucrats in wellington)

My area of specialty is still expanding (very slowly) but I expect we will lag about 1 year behind the market.

With builders becoming quiet, it could be a good time to get plans approved if you own bare land??? Should get good rates and a quick turnaround. New stuff should rent better than old.

[Dean]

CJ is on to it .Those are the growth / safe industries at present . Undertakers are looking for extra staff too.

[Gatekeeper]

I'm in tourism/accommodation and it's been a good year with steady growth. Prices put up 10% in April, and bookings are well up on the last two years.

With our dollar sliding, it's looking quite promising.
Still a steady stream of immigrants and prospectors (majority ex UK).
None seem in a rush to buy a house, some keeping their GBP in foreign currency accounts and waiting for more of a downturn in housing & the NZD.

[k1w1]

What about the solicitors?

Oh my heart bleeds.