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  • #61
    Originally posted by exnzpat View Post
    Yes!



    But…

    If you are correct then there will be no drop in market value.

    If you are correct then New Zealand home prices are not slipping nor will ever slip.

    If you are correct then New Zealand is immune to the credit crunch.

    If you are correct New Zealand will not suffer massive job loss.

    And, If you are correct New Zealand will not slide into recession.


    You tell me: of four million people, what percentage of New Zealanders does actually have a mortgage?

    I dont know the exact numbers, but Tricky is quite correct, most NZers don't have a mortgage.
    Owning my own home with no mortgage will not prevent it from losing value.

    A surprisingly small percentage difference between supply and demand will have an enormous impact on prices, so most people dont need to be even in the market or paying a mortgage for the market to continue operating. It's only the few people who want to buy NOW that set the price. So if no one wants to buy houses, then the price will fall as sure as night is day. The credit crunch likewise only has to affect a relatively small number of people to have an impact on the market.
    Last edited by Jumpin; 13-06-2008, 11:00 AM. Reason: typo

    Comment


    • #62
      OK. I get it. It’s Opposite Day down in New Zealand today.

      You Guys really had me going for a minute…


      “…most NZers don't have a mortgage…” I almost fell for it.

      Good one Guys!
      Erewhon is still erehwon, I don’t see it changing anytime soon.

      http://exnzpat.blogspot.com/

      Comment


      • #63
        Tricky and ExNZPat,

        After a cursory check on NZ Stats and other websites, it seems around 67% of us own a house (one the highest rates in the world it seems), and 48% of NZers have a mortgage.

        Given that you are unlikely to have the latter without the former, it seems reasonable to do the math and suggest that about 32% of NZers DO have a morgage so yes, you are correct Tricky,
        “…most NZers don't have a mortgage…”

        PS math is not my strong suite :-)
        two ears and just one mouth.. for good reason.

        Comment


        • #64
          Figures

          Be careful with those figures, it could mean that 67% of NZers own a house and 48% have a mortgage.......not necessarily that 48% of the 67% have a mortgage??.

          Comment


          • #65
            Originally posted by princess View Post
            Tricky and ExNZPat,

            After a cursory check on NZ Stats and other websites, it seems around 67% of us own a house (one the highest rates in the world it seems), and 48% of NZers have a mortgage.

            Given that you are unlikely to have the latter without the former, it seems reasonable to do the math and suggest that about 32% of NZers DO have a morgage so yes, you are correct Tricky,
            “…most NZers don't have a mortgage…”

            PS math is not my strong suite :-)
            Given 67% of NZers own houses and 48% of NZers have a mortgage,

            It can be inferred that 71.6% of House Owning NZers have a mortgage and only 28.4% of House Owning NZers do not have a mortgage.

            PS, Math IS my strong suite
            Last edited by brendan; 13-06-2008, 04:30 PM. Reason: fix type

            Comment


            • #66
              Originally posted by brendan View Post
              Given 67% of NZers own houses and 48% of NZers have a mortgage,

              It can be inferred that 71.6% of House Owning NZers have a mortgage and only 28.4% of House Owning NZers do not have a mortgage.

              PS, Math IS my strong suite
              It may be so, but given that 48% of NZers have a mortgage is an incorrect statement, your answer is as garbage as exnzpat's response. 48% ish of homeowners have a mortgage is more accurate. So Princess (and Tricky) are correct.

              http://www.stats.govt.nz/census/2006...=para006Master

              You'll have to hunt around a bit through the tables to sdd stuff up, but if maths is your strong point, you'll get the idea.
              Last edited by Jumpin; 13-06-2008, 05:09 PM.

              Comment


              • #67
                Siso

                Originally posted by brendan View Post
                Given 67% of NZers own houses and 48% of NZers have a mortgage,

                It can be inferred that 71.6% of House Owning NZers have a mortgage and only 28.4% of House Owning NZers do not have a mortgage.

                PS, Math IS my strong suite
                S**T In ....S**T Out ..... nice maths but ....

                Here is a real stat from... http://www.stats.govt.nz/products-an...ings-Apr03.htm

                The value of total debt held by New Zealanders as estimated by the HSS was $71.988 billion. The most common debt type held by New Zealanders was credit card debt (46 percent). This was followed by mortgage debt (29 percent) and bank debt (24 percent). In terms of value, the largest debt type held by New Zealanders was mortgage debt, which made up 81 percent of the value of total debt, followed by bank debt at 9 percent.

                Admitedly this appears to be from 2001 .....but back then 29% of NZ'rs had mortgage debt ....therefore most NZ'rs don't have a mortgage.

                I suspect what Princess should have said was .....

                67% of NZ'rs own a home and OF those 67%, 48% OF them have a mortgage..... 48% of 67% = 32% .....which is pretty close to 29%

                So somewhere between 29% and 32% of NZ'rs have a mortgage .....therefore most NZ'rs don't have a mortgage.

                Suck on that Mr Opposite Day


                Cheers
                Spaceman
                Last edited by spaceman; 13-06-2008, 05:57 PM.

                Comment


                • #68
                  Thanks for the URL. I find the statistics NZ website really hard to find useful information. Looking at it closer, it's not actually answering our question.

                  Our questions are:
                  1) What % of NZers own houses
                  2a) What % of NZers have mortgages; or
                  2b) What % of 'NZers that own houses' have mortgages

                  Answer 1:
                  The closest they get to answering this questions is "In 2006, 66.9 percent of households in private occupied dwellings either owned the dwelling they lived in or held that dwelling in a family trust". However this excludes people like myself that own houses, but do not own the dwelling that they live in. So 66.9 is not the answer to question 1. All we know is that the answer to question 1 is probably a number greater than 66.9%.

                  Answer 2b:
                  "Of the owned dwellings, Northland Region had the highest proportion of dwellings owned without a mortgage (49.3 percent)."
                  So this says that the answer to 2b is a number greater than 50.7%


                  Answers:
                  1) What % of NZers own houses: >66.9
                  2a) What % of NZers have mortgages: ???
                  2b) What % of 'NZers that own houses' have mortgages: >50.7

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    I was actually gonna have a 'stab in the dark' at the beginning (wish I had now), and suggest 25%, which would've been pretty close!

                    Do I win a chocolate fish?

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Not bad Glen as a guess and I am surprised it is so low

                      Cheers
                      David

                      PS do trusts etc put a spanner in the works here ie won't it be the case that trusts and businesses might have mortgages that aren't accounted for in the figures?
                      New to property investing? See: Best PropertyTalk Threads for New and Old Investors And/Or:Propertytalk Wiki

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                      • #71
                        Originally posted by Monid View Post
                        Not bad Glen as a guess and I am surprised it is so low

                        Cheers
                        David

                        PS do trusts etc put a spanner in the works here ie won't it be the case that trusts and businesses might have mortgages that aren't accounted for in the figures?
                        I was thinking along the lines that probably half the population are either old codgers or babies!

                        That leaves the rest as either/or
                        - dole bludgers and renting,
                        - working and renting,
                        - working and mortgaged,
                        - working and freehold.
                        - or so rich that I don't give a toss!


                        Who the heck knows anyhow!?

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          Originally posted by brendan View Post
                          Thanks for the URL. I find the statistics NZ website really hard to find useful information. Looking at it closer, it's not actually answering our question.

                          Our questions are:
                          1) What % of NZers own houses
                          2a) What % of NZers have mortgages; or
                          2b) What % of 'NZers that own houses' have mortgages

                          Answer 1:
                          The closest they get to answering this questions is "In 2006, 66.9 percent of households in private occupied dwellings either owned the dwelling they lived in or held that dwelling in a family trust". However this excludes people like myself that own houses, but do not own the dwelling that they live in. So 66.9 is not the answer to question 1. All we know is that the answer to question 1 is probably a number greater than 66.9%.

                          Answer 2b:
                          "Of the owned dwellings, Northland Region had the highest proportion of dwellings owned without a mortgage (49.3 percent)."
                          So this says that the answer to 2b is a number greater than 50.7%


                          Answers:
                          1) What % of NZers own houses: >66.9
                          2a) What % of NZers have mortgages: ???
                          2b) What % of 'NZers that own houses' have mortgages: >50.7


                          I admit the data is difficult to extract exact figures (such is the nature of surveys) however if you click onto the pdf at the bottom of the linked page it has some more tables of data from which you may glean more info.

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            Originally posted by Glen View Post

                            Do I win a chocolate fish?
                            Only if you have the requisite fishing quota! ( yes I know -1/10 for a non PC joke!)
                            The mission of any business enterprise should include the aim to develop economic conditions rather than simply react to them.

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Monid is correct Trusts do put a spanner in the works, and in fact, will alter the data drastically. We should see if we can find out how many of these real-estate type trusts were created after 2002; when the boom really started booming.

                              But that aside, consider this: Consumer Spending inside New Zealand by New Zealanders vs. Wage Increases over the last 6 years and ask yourself this: where did this money come from, if not from wages?


                              Note: if you will, that this data can be tied directly to the high NZ dollar and the current squeeze of the NZ housing market.
                              Erewhon is still erehwon, I don’t see it changing anytime soon.

                              http://exnzpat.blogspot.com/

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Originally posted by exnzpat View Post
                                Monid is correct Trusts do put a spanner in the works, and in fact, will alter the data drastically. We should see if we can find out how many of these real-estate type trusts were created after 2002; when the boom really started booming.

                                But that aside, consider this: Consumer Spending inside New Zealand by New Zealanders vs. Wage Increases over the last 6 years and ask yourself this: where did this money come from, if not from wages?

                                Note: if you will, that this data can be tied directly to the high NZ dollar and the current squeeze of the NZ housing market.

                                I was reading on CNN how they are expecting the housing market in key areas of the US of A to fall further. A significant part of the consumer boom in the States was due to equity being used for consumer goods. And now the excessive borrowing has come home to roost.

                                Likewise I believe there are a significant number in NZ who used their home equity to fund trips and buy consumables. For example; last October, at that sorry religious festival in Cardiff, I was surprised at the number of Kiwis who openly acknowledged to me they "put the trip on the house"
                                The mission of any business enterprise should include the aim to develop economic conditions rather than simply react to them.

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