Originally posted by orion
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History of House Prices in New Zealand
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Originally posted by Commercial Dan View PostOriental Bay is now 2 mil and Stokes Valley 400k, ahh, looks like one has grown more than the other!
Are you saying you would buy a rental property in Oriental Parade for $2million?
Here is a comparison of locations around New Zealand and what rates of growth they have had over the past 26 years. They vary by less than 2% over the whole of NZ and I think they may even vary less than that if it was taken over a longer time frame.
Location 1981 2007
Wanganui $27,070 $170,000 7.4 %p.a.
Masterton $30,779 $237,000 8.2 % p.a.
Dunedin $31,415 $260,000 8.5% p.a.
Timaru $31,487 $209,000 7.6% p.a.
New Plymouth $37,959 $305,000 8.4% p.a.
Christchrch $38,100 $330,000 8.6 % p.a.
Gisborne $38,137 $275,000 7.9% p.a.
Hastings $40,610 $280,000 7.8% p.a.
Rotorua $40,711 $240,000 7.1 % p.a.
Whangarei $42,415 $315,000 8.0 % p.a.
Hamilton $43,982 $335,000 9.0 % p.a.
Palmerston North $44,032 $283,000 7.5% p.a.
Napier $44,152 $303,000 7.7 % p.a.
Nelson $44,627 $320,000 7.9 % p.a.
Wellington $45,947 $378,000 8.5 % p.a.
Taupo $45,998 $380,000 8.5% p.a.
Tauranga $52,966 $370,000 7.8% p.a.
Auckland $65,579 $510,000 8.2 % p.a.
Hutt Valley 1968 $12,000 - 2008 $333,000 approx 8.5% p.a.
Tauranga 1968 $13,000 - 2008 $370,000 approx 8.75% p.a.
Regards
Graeme FowlerFacebook Property Chat Group NZ
https://www.facebook.com/groups/340682962758216/
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Originally posted by Ivanhoe View Post
I see no known wave in that mess.
zero use as a prediction tool.
obviously.
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Originally posted by Rolf View PostWithout knowing the specific areas you mention Graeme, if the concept of superior growth areas doesn't exist then how did Khandallah and Oriental Parade become more expensive in the first place? We must assume all areas originally were bare land.Facebook Property Chat Group NZ
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counter-intuitive
Originally posted by orion View PostWell I guess you really need to compare the same property back then as now. The one I referred to was a 2brm, there is also a 2 brm one on TradeMe for offers over $520,000 in Oriental Parade.
Are you saying you would buy a rental property in Oriental Parade for $2million?
Here is a comparison of locations around New Zealand and what rates of growth they have had over the past 26 years. They vary by less than 2% over the whole of NZ and I think they may even vary less than that if it was taken over a longer time frame.
Location 1981 2007
Wanganui $27,070 $170,000 7.4 %p.a.
Masterton $30,779 $237,000 8.2 % p.a.
Dunedin $31,415 $260,000 8.5% p.a.
Timaru $31,487 $209,000 7.6% p.a.
New Plymouth $37,959 $305,000 8.4% p.a.
Christchrch $38,100 $330,000 8.6 % p.a.
Gisborne $38,137 $275,000 7.9% p.a.
Hastings $40,610 $280,000 7.8% p.a.
Rotorua $40,711 $240,000 7.1 % p.a.
Whangarei $42,415 $315,000 8.0 % p.a.
Hamilton $43,982 $335,000 9.0 % p.a.
Palmerston North $44,032 $283,000 7.5% p.a.
Napier $44,152 $303,000 7.7 % p.a.
Nelson $44,627 $320,000 7.9 % p.a.
Wellington $45,947 $378,000 8.5 % p.a.
Taupo $45,998 $380,000 8.5% p.a.
Tauranga $52,966 $370,000 7.8% p.a.
Auckland $65,579 $510,000 8.2 % p.a.
Hutt Valley 1968 $12,000 - 2008 $333,000 approx 8.5% p.a.
Tauranga 1968 $13,000 - 2008 $370,000 approx 8.75% p.a.
Regards
Graeme Fowler
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Originally posted by 67910241 View Postand very interesting! Who would have said Hamilton and ....Facebook Property Chat Group NZ
https://www.facebook.com/groups/340682962758216/
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Originally posted by orion View Postmost other people have been brainwashed their entire investing lives with the same false information.
Most other investors also believe there are such things as high capital growth areas and low growth areas as well.
What constitutes 'relevant' is then debatable. The point of focusing on high capital growth areas is that one can invest in them while their growth outperform others. Once that growth becomes inferior one can then move on to other more profitable areas and so on. The problem lies of course in how to identify such hot spots.
So I agree with you Graeme that statistics show no significant difference among the various areas since 1968, but that does not imply that actively pursuing current high growth areas is not a profitable strategy.High resolution Fractal Art on quality canvas: www.FractalArt.co.nz
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Originally posted by Rolf View PostSo I agree with you Graeme that statistics show no significant difference among the various areas since 1968, but that does not imply that actively pursuing current high growth areas is not a profitable strategy.
Do you use this strategy?
Also, if professional investors buying and selling on the stock market only get about 3 or 4 out of 10 predictions correct, how would someone that doesn't guess professionally do better in real estate guessing?
Regards
Graeme FowlerFacebook Property Chat Group NZ
https://www.facebook.com/groups/340682962758216/
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Originally posted by orion View PostHi McDuck, prediction for what??
Regards
Graeme Fowler
So I know when to close down my other business and start increasing my investing big time, by paying off interest only loans... with the capital gain.... while continually borrowing 80% to buy and sell in the strong market phases. (Making sure never to fix the interest rates.)of course.
Seriously, to predict how long a flat spell might last for.
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Originally posted by McDuck View PostLol...
So I know when to close down my other business and start increasing my investing big time, by paying off interest only loans... with the capital gain.... while continually borrowing 80% to buy and sell in the strong market phases. (Making sure never to fix the interest rates.)of course.
Seriously, to predict how long a flat spell might last for.
Well, the way to predict it is this - think of a number between 1 and 50, then get someone else to think of a number between 1 and 50 without telling them your number of course, and then a third person as well. If you all come up with the same number, you know you will be correct, and this will be the number of years their will be a flat spell (whatever a flat spell means). If you don't all come up with the same number, you need to start again. It really is that simple, let me know how you get on.
Regards
Graeme FowlerFacebook Property Chat Group NZ
https://www.facebook.com/groups/340682962758216/
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I'm reminded of an acquaintance who bought 14 state housing units in the Hutt (in a poor suburb) some years back, but now has sold them all to get into commercial. He gave his reason for selling as "crap property brings crap tenants" and he didn't want any further hassles with rent dues, wall damage and blocked toilets.
So if growth seems to average itself out over a 30 year term, wouldn’t quality property in good areas be a better bet? It would have fewer tenant troubles and less maintenance.
The only problem I see is that we would need to pay a premium for better quality IPs, therefore restricting our portfolio growth.
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Originally posted by KevinR View PostSo if growth seems to average itself out over a 30 year term, wouldn’t quality property in good areas be a better bet? It would have fewer tenant troubles and less maintenance.
The only problem I see is that we would need to pay a premium for better quality IPs, therefore restricting our portfolio growth.
Regards
Graeme FowlerFacebook Property Chat Group NZ
https://www.facebook.com/groups/340682962758216/
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Sounds good to me Graeme. I'm starting work on my PI again after a lengthy time away building my businesses. This time however, I have given myself only a third of this 30 year cycle to build my property assets, so your comments are interesting.
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