Hi Guys
Comments from the BNZ Monthly Survey.
REgards
Comments from the BNZ Monthly Survey.
Real Estate – Non-residential
• Commercial property industry looking particularly bad for poorer located, lower value buildings. Tenants
struggling with rental commitments.
• Commercial Property. While some areas of our business are booming others will be feeling the pinch.
Should not see a significant downturn
• Real Estate - Commercial & Businesses. Commercial clients are re-visiting their leasing & in some
cases ownership costs. A degree of nervousness exists. More property to lease is coming through.
Businesses are finding increased running costs in all sectors, fuel, wages & staffing plus those impacting
on other costs they are having to meet. Figures for turnover are not all that pretty either. Some owners
talking of trying to opt-out! Business will not get any better and may slip a bit.
• Commercial Real Estate is showing signs of caution in the top half of the South Island sales leading up
to the end of the year were strong however January slowed up (normal for holiday period)
Leasing has remained steady
• Commercial is steady and must come to the end of its dream run but that does not mean a collapse.
Real Estate – Residential
• Property trading Palmerston North. Sales are slowing down. Few enquiries about open home.
• Auckland Property - Buyers seem to be taking on board the media reports and have come out in force in
the last two weeks or so - they all seem to have the feeling that it's now become a buyers market and a
great time to buy and they are going for it!
• Residential Real Estate (Central Eastern Suburbs) - Well priced homes new to the market are selling
quickly. As a residential salesperson I've been involved in many sales in the last two weeks. Most
buyers are hoping the market will fall. Nothing new!
• Nobody is paying a premium for property - vendors have to be flexible (Real Estate )
• Real Estate - Inner City Auckland. Very busy with 35% of our listings selling in the last 10 days and not
enough new listings to satisfy buyer demand. Inundated with buyer enquiries, emails from overseas and
even sold one over the net by remote control. Despite talk about Kiwis moving to Oz, around 13,000
Australians moved here last year and we've just sold homes to three Australian families - all of them
reckon they are better off here. Apparently house buyers in Melbourne have to pay stamp duty of around
$16,800 on a $400,000 house and stamp duty on your mortgage! Tax rates may be lower in Oz but they
would need to be with stamp duty and capital gains tax as high as that.
• Rotorua residential investment property prices and determined vendors are still hanging on surprisingly
well. No sign of bargains yet. But increasing numbers of agents appraisals will likely bring more
properties onto the market, creating a little downward pressure.
• Residential property market in Wellington still very strong and achieving an average of $150 per week
per room in shared flats.
• High end property remains an attractive investment.
• Property developments tend to depend on second tier risk finance. As this dries up so do the punters.
Larger well established developers OK , but we expect a slow down in 2008. We thought that would
happen 12 months ago and were wrong so we may be wrong again. No one can see the future.
• Real Estate Papakura. More property being listed than November/December, with some very well priced
property on the market, but very little purchaser enquiry. Majority of Vendors are not anxious to sell so
prices appear to be holding for now. Foresee 2008 to be a repeat of 2007, but expect purchaser finance
to be more difficult to arrange. Predicting a good year for purchasers, but a quiet and frustrating year for
Vendors.
• Property Valuation - Bay of Plenty Area. Residential work is very quiet, with most jobs being repeat
custom, for refinancing
• Property - residential sales decline in buyers, listing periods protracted compared to 6 months ago w
retraction from market from vendors unable to sell or in some instances bargain sales as 2 & 3 year fixed
replacement mortgages become unaffordable due to increase in repayments of 20 - 30%.
• Residential Real Estate Pakuranga/Howick - All the talk of doom & gloom - it's not super evident round
here, yes, sales volume is down a bit and taking a bit longer, but there's still plenty of action. Prices seem
to be holding although some vendors having been on the market 'too' long are reducing prices to get sold
and get on with their life. But then, perhaps they were too adventurous with price in the first place.
• Property investor - Mum & Dad property investors with a dozen properties, digging our boots in for the
upcoming re-fixing of a rather large monkey, but still scouting around for new (old) property to secure to
expand portfolio. Approached one tenant so far suggesting a rent increase and they were more than
happy with that idea. If the rest follow suit, less of a crisis with funding and should remain cash flow
positive, minus depreciation.
• Rental Property - some tenants are beginning to default on rent payments.
• Residential building in Auckland. Sales down by at least 50% over the past 6 months compared to the
previous 6 months. Went belly up at exactly as the last Reserve Bank rise came in late June 2007.
• I sell real estate - it is the worst I've seen in 5 years of selling
• Residential Valuation work in the Auckland Area is very slow, with a general slowing of volume of sales
in the residential market. Properties in the $800,000 plus bracket are especially slow to sell.
• Real Estate (Residential) Auckland Eastern Suburbs. It is really hard to predict what is happening.
December volumes down 28% on Dec 2006. January sales volumes also well down on last year. Many
people in this area go away for the best part of the month, and 4 weeks annual leave could have had an
effect, along with the superb weather. Listing activity across all property types has been strong over the
past two weeks. Now school is back we expect some form of normal trading pattern to return. Open
home activity this weekend will be a real litmus test as to the strength or otherwise of the market. It is too
early to comment on any movements in prices.
• Central Auckland residential real estate. Buyers appearing again who held off at the peak, now
expecting to buy 20% below peak prices. I feel the market is softer by around 10% but the state of
global financial flux is causing excessive nervousness with buyers and is not called for to the extent
extemporised by gasping media.
• Very slow sales excellent listings
• Residential property investor. Houses to rent are in increasing demand and I am seeing rents slowly but
continuously rise. There are no signs to me that rental demand will abate.
• Rental market. The rents will rise because of general expenses e.g. rates. I think tenants will have such
difficulty I feel sorry for them. I think landlords must accept lower returns.
• Residential Valuation. Work volume down between 30% and 40% on the same time last year. Having
trouble getting people to pay their bills. Looks like sale prices starting to drop, especially in the top
bracket. Getting the odd mortgagee sale valuation from the banks. Think I'll go on holiday.
• Private investor, well cashed up having disposed of some real estate and conservatively investing the
funds. Interest rates are likely to hold providing a more secure return than the real estate might have. So
for me the outlook is quite comfortable having eliminated the risk and uncertainties that property holds.
However I may become a bargain hunter later this year when more defaults will appear in the property
market. Being in a strong cash position I may then buy or continue with the reasonable interest returns. A
change of government will give me more confidence. The Govt will probably change.
• Cambridge Real estate, urban and lifestyle property, slowing, buyers are in the drivers seat. Rural, dairy
farms in hot demand, our last sale in January four U/C offers over the asking price.
• Residential has turned and the extent of it is the issue. How hard will the mortgage rate rises bite into
mortgagors' ability to spend? I think it could get pretty hard for say at least 10%.
• Property Management Rents are up in some cases 5-10% that side of business good.
Compliance costs especially development levies killing new dead. We operate North Shore Auckland.
This will led to continual pressure on rents.
• Commercial property industry looking particularly bad for poorer located, lower value buildings. Tenants
struggling with rental commitments.
• Commercial Property. While some areas of our business are booming others will be feeling the pinch.
Should not see a significant downturn
• Real Estate - Commercial & Businesses. Commercial clients are re-visiting their leasing & in some
cases ownership costs. A degree of nervousness exists. More property to lease is coming through.
Businesses are finding increased running costs in all sectors, fuel, wages & staffing plus those impacting
on other costs they are having to meet. Figures for turnover are not all that pretty either. Some owners
talking of trying to opt-out! Business will not get any better and may slip a bit.
• Commercial Real Estate is showing signs of caution in the top half of the South Island sales leading up
to the end of the year were strong however January slowed up (normal for holiday period)
Leasing has remained steady
• Commercial is steady and must come to the end of its dream run but that does not mean a collapse.
Real Estate – Residential
• Property trading Palmerston North. Sales are slowing down. Few enquiries about open home.
• Auckland Property - Buyers seem to be taking on board the media reports and have come out in force in
the last two weeks or so - they all seem to have the feeling that it's now become a buyers market and a
great time to buy and they are going for it!
• Residential Real Estate (Central Eastern Suburbs) - Well priced homes new to the market are selling
quickly. As a residential salesperson I've been involved in many sales in the last two weeks. Most
buyers are hoping the market will fall. Nothing new!
• Nobody is paying a premium for property - vendors have to be flexible (Real Estate )
• Real Estate - Inner City Auckland. Very busy with 35% of our listings selling in the last 10 days and not
enough new listings to satisfy buyer demand. Inundated with buyer enquiries, emails from overseas and
even sold one over the net by remote control. Despite talk about Kiwis moving to Oz, around 13,000
Australians moved here last year and we've just sold homes to three Australian families - all of them
reckon they are better off here. Apparently house buyers in Melbourne have to pay stamp duty of around
$16,800 on a $400,000 house and stamp duty on your mortgage! Tax rates may be lower in Oz but they
would need to be with stamp duty and capital gains tax as high as that.
• Rotorua residential investment property prices and determined vendors are still hanging on surprisingly
well. No sign of bargains yet. But increasing numbers of agents appraisals will likely bring more
properties onto the market, creating a little downward pressure.
• Residential property market in Wellington still very strong and achieving an average of $150 per week
per room in shared flats.
• High end property remains an attractive investment.
• Property developments tend to depend on second tier risk finance. As this dries up so do the punters.
Larger well established developers OK , but we expect a slow down in 2008. We thought that would
happen 12 months ago and were wrong so we may be wrong again. No one can see the future.
• Real Estate Papakura. More property being listed than November/December, with some very well priced
property on the market, but very little purchaser enquiry. Majority of Vendors are not anxious to sell so
prices appear to be holding for now. Foresee 2008 to be a repeat of 2007, but expect purchaser finance
to be more difficult to arrange. Predicting a good year for purchasers, but a quiet and frustrating year for
Vendors.
• Property Valuation - Bay of Plenty Area. Residential work is very quiet, with most jobs being repeat
custom, for refinancing
• Property - residential sales decline in buyers, listing periods protracted compared to 6 months ago w
retraction from market from vendors unable to sell or in some instances bargain sales as 2 & 3 year fixed
replacement mortgages become unaffordable due to increase in repayments of 20 - 30%.
• Residential Real Estate Pakuranga/Howick - All the talk of doom & gloom - it's not super evident round
here, yes, sales volume is down a bit and taking a bit longer, but there's still plenty of action. Prices seem
to be holding although some vendors having been on the market 'too' long are reducing prices to get sold
and get on with their life. But then, perhaps they were too adventurous with price in the first place.
• Property investor - Mum & Dad property investors with a dozen properties, digging our boots in for the
upcoming re-fixing of a rather large monkey, but still scouting around for new (old) property to secure to
expand portfolio. Approached one tenant so far suggesting a rent increase and they were more than
happy with that idea. If the rest follow suit, less of a crisis with funding and should remain cash flow
positive, minus depreciation.
• Rental Property - some tenants are beginning to default on rent payments.
• Residential building in Auckland. Sales down by at least 50% over the past 6 months compared to the
previous 6 months. Went belly up at exactly as the last Reserve Bank rise came in late June 2007.
• I sell real estate - it is the worst I've seen in 5 years of selling
• Residential Valuation work in the Auckland Area is very slow, with a general slowing of volume of sales
in the residential market. Properties in the $800,000 plus bracket are especially slow to sell.
• Real Estate (Residential) Auckland Eastern Suburbs. It is really hard to predict what is happening.
December volumes down 28% on Dec 2006. January sales volumes also well down on last year. Many
people in this area go away for the best part of the month, and 4 weeks annual leave could have had an
effect, along with the superb weather. Listing activity across all property types has been strong over the
past two weeks. Now school is back we expect some form of normal trading pattern to return. Open
home activity this weekend will be a real litmus test as to the strength or otherwise of the market. It is too
early to comment on any movements in prices.
• Central Auckland residential real estate. Buyers appearing again who held off at the peak, now
expecting to buy 20% below peak prices. I feel the market is softer by around 10% but the state of
global financial flux is causing excessive nervousness with buyers and is not called for to the extent
extemporised by gasping media.
• Very slow sales excellent listings
• Residential property investor. Houses to rent are in increasing demand and I am seeing rents slowly but
continuously rise. There are no signs to me that rental demand will abate.
• Rental market. The rents will rise because of general expenses e.g. rates. I think tenants will have such
difficulty I feel sorry for them. I think landlords must accept lower returns.
• Residential Valuation. Work volume down between 30% and 40% on the same time last year. Having
trouble getting people to pay their bills. Looks like sale prices starting to drop, especially in the top
bracket. Getting the odd mortgagee sale valuation from the banks. Think I'll go on holiday.
• Private investor, well cashed up having disposed of some real estate and conservatively investing the
funds. Interest rates are likely to hold providing a more secure return than the real estate might have. So
for me the outlook is quite comfortable having eliminated the risk and uncertainties that property holds.
However I may become a bargain hunter later this year when more defaults will appear in the property
market. Being in a strong cash position I may then buy or continue with the reasonable interest returns. A
change of government will give me more confidence. The Govt will probably change.
• Cambridge Real estate, urban and lifestyle property, slowing, buyers are in the drivers seat. Rural, dairy
farms in hot demand, our last sale in January four U/C offers over the asking price.
• Residential has turned and the extent of it is the issue. How hard will the mortgage rate rises bite into
mortgagors' ability to spend? I think it could get pretty hard for say at least 10%.
• Property Management Rents are up in some cases 5-10% that side of business good.
Compliance costs especially development levies killing new dead. We operate North Shore Auckland.
This will led to continual pressure on rents.