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"The Housing Bubble Will Probably Burst" - US/NZ parallel?

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  • "The Housing Bubble Will Probably Burst" - US/NZ parallel?

    Here is a US analysis distributed free via a newsletter I get (great charts!).

    I would love to see how we are doing in NZ on these same measures. How parallel are we to this US situation do you think?

    The implications for investment and rent scenarios are interesting to speculate about.

    http://www.investorsinsight.com/otb_...?EditionID=256

    Regards. Martin.
    Last edited by muppet; 13-01-2006, 08:23 AM.

  • #2
    The Housing Bubble Will Probably Burst
    And mount Ruapehu will probaby erupt!

    Interesting observation that apartment rents are trending upwards again.

    My maine gripe with the charts is that they are selective - some start in 1965, some in 2000. This is to back up the points being made, but, for investors, it should only be the long term trends that matter.

    cube
    Last edited by cube; 13-01-2006, 09:12 AM.
    DFTBA

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    • #3
      The True Value of Analysis

      Vaguely interesting analysis but nothing to really tie it all together I thought. It doesn't seem very relevant to me.

      As many of you know I am a believer in following the basket of economic drivers that I define as the 'Key Drivers' of the Property Cycle to identify where we are in the cycle and whether or not a Boom or Bust will arrive. And yes that is why I KNEW this Boom was coming in NZ back in 2001 before it arrived and I did announce it publicly in 2001! (It wasn't taken seriously by the press back then so got virtually no media coverage!)

      I am mainly interested in the 'picture' painted by the collective Key Drivers and use my proven and trademarked system (Property Clock) to gauge where a property market is in relation to the traditional Property Cycle.

      My Property Clock system has attracted some criticism from a few other individuals in the PI industry in the past (I suspect driven by their own agendas) or perhaps they just didn't understand how seriously I take this research. Anyway those detractors cannot fault the fact that my Property Clock system has proven remarkably accurate over the last 5 years (no fluke here, just the simple result of literally thousands of hours of ongoing research, analysis and a significant amount of capital invested too).

      I take this analysis extremely seriously as not only does my wealth creation rely on it but thousands of peoples wealth is seriously at stake when they act on my advice. Just ask those who I told 2 years ago that we were NOT heading for a crash when some other commentators said we were!

      Our system told us there was no sign of a crash and that the boom was still lingering. We kept buying properties (some off other investors frantically cashing up!) and we are very pleased that we did. Values have increased by @20% since then...

      I do pity those who sold up to wait for the so-called 'coming crash'. They have been waiting for a crash for the last couple of years so they could buy properties at cheaper prices but that mistake has cost them dearly! Their collective loss is unfathomable and must be in the tens of millions of dollars at least!

      I believe doing my homework thoroughly is my duty of care and yes even more important than selling more books or seminars!

      We (me and three statisticians) are continually refining the system but it is not indicating a crash in 2006 in NZ except for a few isolated markets... like Auckland CBD apartments which by all accounts have already dumped in value quickly, some small towns and potentially some coastal areas.

      The system I use is also why I am still confident of no crash in NZ's 3 main centres in 2006. Whilst values may see some small 'adjustment' do not expect a crash! (Sorry if you have been expecting one!)

      So NO the housing bubble (which I believe is still relatively small in NZ's main centres) is highly unlikely to burst in 2006.
      I say highly unlikely as we all know that no system is absolutely perfect!
      (But we do also know that some are more perfect than others!)
      Last edited by kieran; 13-01-2006, 04:56 PM.
      Kieran Trass

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      • #4
        Originally posted by kieran
        Vaguely interesting analysis but nothing to really tie it all together I thought. It doesn't seem very relevant to me.

        I take this analysis extremely seriously as not only does my wealth creation rely on it but thousands of peoples wealth is seriously at stake when they act on my advice. Just ask those who I told 2 years ago that we were NOT heading for a crash when some other commentators said we were!

        Our system told us there was no sign of a crash and that the boom was still lingering...
        Hi Kieran

        Just to let you know that me and my family want to be counted as well so make that number "thousands and six"

        Your Hot Spots reports predicted Mt Wellington would keep rising so I kept buying there and still am.

        Your Hot Spot reports predicted Roskill Coastal in the early days and my daughter bought very well with their home (and 180 degree seaview). My own home as well went up approx 40% in the following months.

        Cheers Ron

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        • #5
          Thanks Ron,

          I am also very appreciative of you and your family supporting my research over the past few years (through your subscriptions to my hotspots reports and clock commentary) and I am also aware of you and your familys spectacular success and portfolio growth in that time.

          The fantastic thing about you guys is that you actually 'take the bull by the horns' and act on my research... sadly many don't for one reason or another.

          Part of the reason I am in business is because of the personal satisfaction I get from helping others (like you) to get better results than you would have without my support so I am extremly pleased to have supported your collective success!

          Thank you for your kind acknowledgement too, it is worth so much more to me than what any amount of money can buy!

          I know you will never lose your 'I can do and I will do' attitude which I believe is one of the key secrets to your success!

          Thanks again Ron
          Kieran Trass

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          • #6
            The US Housing bubble...

            Good bye US housing bubble: http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...arch&plindex=1

            It deflates: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkzb5cmmma8 (funny)

            The Great Real Estate Bust: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pj_Ou...related&search=

            Housing Bubble vs. Great Depression: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLjo7...related&search

            Foreclosure of the American Dream: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SejeI...elated&search=
            Last edited by Libertas; 19-06-2007, 04:42 PM.
            No price is too high to pay for the privilege of owning yourself. - Friedrich Nietzsche

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by kieran View Post
              Thanks Ron,

              The fantastic thing about you guys is that you actually 'take the bull by the horns' and act on my research... sadly many don't for one reason or another.

              Part of the reason I am in business is because of the personal satisfaction I get from helping others (like you) to get better results than you would have without my support so I am extremly pleased to have supported your collective success!

              Thank you for your kind acknowledgment too, it is worth so much more to me than what any amount of money can buy!

              I know you will never lose your 'I can do and I will do' attitude which I believe is one of the key secrets to your success!

              Thanks again Ron
              Gees this sounds so wet it is of the tidal wave proportion.

              Though one pertinent comment was of what a 'can do' attitude can do which obviously this chap above has, this is the secret and not the winning horse race formulas. With all honesty anyone could have bought anywhere and made money in recent times, with or without a cookoo-clock.

              Commonsense would say if you buy in good areas you will make money over time, maybe this clock is handy when it comes to the more speculative ones I don't know.

              Time will tell, I certainly hope you are correct Mr Trass. Gareth Morgan once told me that he made a horse race computer programme back in the 80s which he thought was bullet proof, it predicted every race for a little while then turned to custard. What it couldn't predict was the human and animal instinct which couldn't be properly measured in this computer programme or any other since.
              Last edited by muppet; 19-06-2007, 08:09 PM. Reason: spelling

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              • #8
                More US Videos:

                Housing Bubble: Market Crashing? Yes, In Slow Motion. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-2GNnKYoIE

                Our Economy Right Now: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-rLYph0J7vc&NR=1

                FLORIDA HOUSING CRASH 50% OFF SALES http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10WoQ...related&search=

                Real Estate Flipper: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4BhJV...related&search=

                The Crash: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqkbHV3C9L4
                Last edited by Libertas; 20-06-2007, 12:38 AM.
                No price is too high to pay for the privilege of owning yourself. - Friedrich Nietzsche

                Comment

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