Header Ad Module

Collapse

Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Covid-19 Economic & General Effects for PIs & PMs

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Jeffa
    replied
    Originally posted by Sanya View Post
    In a recent post I raised a question on whether the state will take back the ground its taken in the COVID-19 emergency measures.

    It seems likely – to me at least – that Jacinda will win the upcoming election because it’s rare for “war-time” Prime Ministers not to be re-elected. Furthermore, there will be plenty more opportunities for the PM to be uppermost in the minds of many because this crisis we are all facing is not limited to a four week lockdown. Quarantines assist in breaking the chain of virus transmission. They do not cure the underlying problem.

    In my opinion the general effects of COVID-19 for property investors will be wide-ranging.


    1. Continuation of the rent freeze.
    2. Increase the security of tenure for tenants who can’t meet their obligations.
    3. Erosion of property rights with the prospect of a timed extension preventing landlords them from retaking possession of their rental properties.
    4. After the election some form of wealth tax (not obviously labelled a CGT tax tough) largely targeted at asset holders. Gov needs extra income to recoup COVID-19 handouts. You will be paying it.



    It’s really up to PI’s to chart a course through this. Most of us are playing a long game in property investment – so this is simply some gusty winds and rough surf….
    I might have a different angle in regards to the upcoming election and the longer it is delayed the better chance National will get in.

    Unemployment will kick in,people will be hurting,you can only
    accept kindness and huggs for so long when your partner is unemployed and the kids are going without.
    People will find someone to blame once the lockdown is over and if life dosent return to normal.

    The ones that will feel it the most are the core supporters of Labour.

    Example:

    2008 Global financial crisis Clark led government crushed buy the incoming Key government.
    1987 although Labour had won by a small number of votes soon after the 1987 Wall Street sharemarket crash caused widespread unemployment in New Zealand,resulting in Labour getting smacked at the General election in 1990.

    My guess is Labour knows this and will be backed into a corner if unemployment rises.

    Either way people are going to be hurt come polling time

    and there the ones that are going to be deciding the election.

    You might want to note the polls were already tight before the beer virus.

    Leave a comment:


  • Sanya
    replied
    In a recent post I raised a question on whether the state will take back the ground its taken in the COVID-19 emergency measures.

    It seems likely – to me at least – that Jacinda will win the upcoming election because it’s rare for “war-time” Prime Ministers not to be re-elected. Furthermore, there will be plenty more opportunities for the PM to be uppermost in the minds of many because this crisis we are all facing is not limited to a four week lockdown. Quarantines assist in breaking the chain of virus transmission. They do not cure the underlying problem.

    In my opinion the general effects of COVID-19 for property investors will be wide-ranging.


    1. Continuation of the rent freeze.
    2. Increase the security of tenure for tenants who can’t meet their obligations.
    3. Erosion of property rights with the prospect of a timed extension preventing landlords them from retaking possession of their rental properties.
    4. After the election some form of wealth tax (not obviously labelled a CGT tax tough) largely targeted at asset holders. Gov needs extra income to recoup COVID-19 handouts. You will be paying it.



    It’s really up to PI’s to chart a course through this. Most of us are playing a long game in property investment – so this is simply some gusty winds and rough surf….

    Leave a comment:


  • Learning
    replied
    Traditionally birth rates drop in times of financial depression. Not exactly immediate impact on property.

    Leave a comment:


  • elguapo
    replied
    Originally posted by Perry View Post
    Optimist.

    T'will be said that it would've been worse if not for the lockdown.
    Quite right. They will avoid accountability at all costs.

    Leave a comment:


  • motivated
    replied
    Convirus 19 effects on Migration and the Property Market

    I am curious as to whether recent events have resulted in a nett increase or decrease in the permenant population of NZ. clearly if there is a big change either way it will impact on the supply and demand for residential property in NZ.
    Does anyone have data on recent migration flows?
    Im also wondering how many of the approx 650000 Kiwis will leave Australia for home because of the appalling lack of support for these people (taxpayers) by the Aussie Govt.

    Leave a comment:


  • Perry
    replied
    Originally posted by mrsaneperson View Post
    For sure if the common flu causes 4x more deaths than this Covid-19 virus does, there will be a lot of running for cover and red faces when finally it's realised the extreme insanity that has been brought upon us.
    Optimist.

    T'will be said that it would've been worse if not for the lockdown.

    Leave a comment:


  • mrsaneperson
    replied
    Truly that is what is missing, its perspective. Instead we have replaced it with grotesque hysteria.

    Currently as of 29.3.20 there are 32, 000 worldwide deaths from Covid-19. Over 1 year that's 128000. That's only 1/4 of the annual worldwide deaths that occur from flu. Yet for flu we have no medical Marshall law lock downs. No bankrupting of the economy. This is crazy stuff what's happening right now.
    As jeffa said one person dies every 90 mins in NZ of a heart attack. There's your perspective.

    If ever the lockdown does finish and those that still have a job, haven't committed suicide, fallen peril to financial collapse, depression, drugs or inactivity - returning back to the workforce will be a much scaled down event.

    And what if the virus returns or some other mutation of it, what do we do, go into lockdown again, this time totally crippling the economy ?

    The vaccine if it ever comes about, I'm sure it will. Who would want to take it? Prevention of something that only affects those with compromised health and over 70.

    For sure if the common flu causes 4x more deaths than this Covid-19 virus does, there will be a lot of running for cover and red faces when finally it's realised the extreme insanity that has been brought upon us.

    Leave a comment:


  • Jeffa
    replied
    Originally posted by Perry View Post
    First NZ death recorded today. Bugger!
    I really don't wish to be disrespectful as I am saddened for there loss,however every 90mins in New Zealand someone dies from heart disease.
    https://www.heartfoundation.org.nz/statistics
    I just want to put things into perspective.
    Last edited by Perry; 29-03-2020, 08:00 PM. Reason: fixed quoted text

    Leave a comment:


  • Perry
    replied
    First NZ death recorded today. Bugger!

    Leave a comment:


  • Frezzinghot
    replied
    Originally posted by Chris W View Post
    Some people would say that might be scare mongering.

    What is the logic put forward by those people?
    Just the general commentary from Kiosaki & company about the crashing stockmarket

    Leave a comment:


  • Chris W
    replied
    Originally posted by Frezzinghot View Post
    Have read some commentary around the world and by all accounts this recession will be bigger that the great depression in the 1930s, so yes this one is going to be BIG!
    Some people would say that might be scare mongering.

    What is the logic put forward by those people?

    Leave a comment:


  • Minz
    replied
    Originally posted by Perry View Post
    The 'official' charts beg to differ.



    Keep in mind that those are simple numbers, it seems. No adjustments for proportion of the NZ population by percentage, unfortunately.

    That aside, the twenty-year-olds do seem to need to be worried. (Compared to the 60+ age brackets.)
    Remember that at this point in time, most cases are in returning travellers. The minority are relatives or community based, thus this chart could change if community spread becomes larger - now that we like to concentrate many of our wiser / older / more vulnerable in the same locations (rest homes, retirement villages). I am trusting that NZ has acted early and will stop the transmission FOR NOW. Heaven only knows how some of the small businesses will ever recover, the financial pain will have crippled many. I have already seen two go down and another really good business under threat ("saveable" IF the lock-down doesn't extend and really money can flow easily).

    Leave a comment:


  • Frezzinghot
    replied
    Originally posted by Perry View Post
    Where has that notion sprung from?


    As all food outlets are open, what are you getting at?

    As I see it, the biggest opportunistic rip-off is the Oz-owned banks. (Seemingly endorsed by taxcindarella tooth fairy). From what I can tell, the so-called mortgage holiday accrues interest and delays the final payt. date. Meantime, the banks get their money, if full, plus a bit more interest.

    If taxcindarella tooth fairy et al can 'emergency legislate' against LLs in favour of tenants, why can't they 'emergency legislate' against banks in favour of mortgage holders?

    Might be because the gummint's bank is an Oz-owned entity. Or that taxcindarella tooth fairy et al are terrified of the Oz-owned banks?

    The aspect that most concerns me is that the colossal economic fall-out will not be shared equitably. Colloquially, those at the bottom of the socio-economic heap will suffer significantly and the most. Small & medium-sized businesses and lower waged / salaried earners are bearing the brunt. 80% of their usual wage / salary is all the displaced workers get during their workplace shutdown. The missing 20% is irrecoverable and will hurt. Parliament has been suspended for a month. I see no offer from our representatives to accept a 20% pay cut while on holiday.

    I see no significant signs of discount - even deferment, or reining in expenditure - relief from the Rates levied by generally avaricious councils. Or any utility suppliers offering charges reductions. I.e. Telecons and electricity suppliers.

    As the old Chinese saying has it: interesting times.

    BTW, I'm sceptical of the foreign statistics that abound. Especially those coming from Chairman Mao's mates. One thing that the communist Chinese are unparalleled at is smiling, bare-faced lying.

    Leave a comment:


  • Perry
    replied
    Originally posted by Frezzinghot View Post
    Probably because all the elderly are so shit scared of going ANYWHERE! Remember they are the demographic most at risk. It will attack them first if in fact this virus is as bad as the government is telling everyone.
    The 'official' charts beg to differ.



    Keep in mind that those are simple numbers, it seems. No adjustments for proportion of the NZ population by percentage, unfortunately.

    That aside, the twenty-year-olds do seem to need to be worried. (Compared to the 60+ age brackets.)
    Last edited by Perry; 29-03-2020, 03:40 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Perry
    replied
    Originally posted by donna View Post
    What's interesting is thousands are still expected to die in NZ due to coronavirus and that's with the lockdown and I think if we didn't have it - it would be 20,000.
    Where has that notion sprung from?

    Originally posted by donna View Post
    The business failure is the most worrying outcome as NZ is all about small businesses. It will be up to us though to support NZ business and when the lockdown lifts - I recommend choosing your local businesses over AUSSIE owned supermarkets.
    As all food outlets are open, what are you getting at?

    As I see it, the biggest opportunistic rip-off is the Oz-owned banks. (Seemingly endorsed by taxcindarella tooth fairy). From what I can tell, the so-called mortgage holiday accrues interest and delays the final payt. date. Meantime, the banks get their money, in full, plus a bit more interest.

    If taxcindarella tooth fairy et al can 'emergency legislate' against LLs in favour of tenants, why can't they 'emergency legislate' against banks in favour of mortgage holders?

    Might be because the gummint's bank is an Oz-owned entity. Or that taxcindarella tooth fairy et al are terrified of the Oz-owned banks?

    The aspect that most concerns me is that the colossal economic fall-out will not be shared equitably. Colloquially, those at the bottom of the socio-economic heap will suffer significantly and the most. Small & medium-sized businesses and lower waged / salaried earners are bearing the brunt. 80% of their usual wage / salary is all the displaced workers get during their workplace shutdown. The missing 20% is irrecoverable and will hurt. Parliament has been suspended for a month. I see no offer from our representatives to accept a 20% pay cut while on holiday.

    I see no significant signs of discount - even deferment, or reining in expenditure - relief from the Rates levied by generally avaricious councils. Or any utility suppliers offering charges reductions. I.e. Telecons and electricity suppliers.

    As the old Chinese saying has it: interesting times.

    BTW, I'm sceptical of the foreign statistics that abound. Especially those coming from Chairman Mao's mates. One thing that the communist Chinese are unparalleled at is smiling, bare-faced lying.
    Last edited by Perry; 01-04-2020, 09:47 AM. Reason: fixed typo

    Leave a comment:

Working...
X