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How will the current boom end?

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  • How will the current boom end?

    How will it all end?

    Trigger by House values hit $600k across NZ - Auckland nears $1m
    47
    Aussie recovery causing reversal in migration numbers
    19.15%
    9
    Government/RNBZ policy having an effect
    14.89%
    7
    China recalls capital en-masse
    10.64%
    5
    Gental return to 'normal' (whatever that means)
    17.02%
    8
    Global Financial Crisis V2.0 destroying confidence
    19.15%
    9
    Some other event
    4.26%
    2
    Boom? What Boom?
    0.00%
    0
    This is the new normal
    12.77%
    6
    Baby Boomers in massive 'sell up and go on holiday' move
    2.13%
    1
    Last edited by cube; 02-08-2016, 01:18 PM.
    DFTBA

  • #2
    External, the result of the currency wars will not be pretty.
    Free online Property Investment Course from iFindProperty, a residential investment property agency.

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    • #3
      Currency shock.

      Or

      Continued stagflation, rising unemployment, and rising super/health costs for another decade eventually force a government to change either or both - baby boomers forced to sell en masse.

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      • #4
        With increasing unrest in the northern hemisphere, ongoing immigration and the lowest unemployment in years... when will it bust? Perhaps it with just stagnate for another decade?
        My Profile

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        • #5
          The boom started with Auckland and will end only when Auckland has a price reversal
          I think it will take 3 years for that.
          If 30,000 homes can be built every year which quite plausible given the spurts in building permits being issued and skilled workmen getting relieved from Christchurch and moving to Auckland , the mad race to buy properties in fear of missing the bus will diminish.
          Once a 100,000 new homes will be available, the trend will reverse as has happened in Christchurch
          Only when this happens in Auckland, the rest of the country will follow suit.

          We have to live with high property prices till 2019 as was written in a detailed article a few days ago

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          • #6
            Big difference between permits being approved and houses built... Where are the builders coming from to complete 30k homes a year in Auckland?

            how many homes were built a year in the peak of ChCh recovery?

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            • #7
              Building a new home is much easier and faster then rebuilding a devastated home.
              I think most of the homes in Christchurch were rebuilt, which require much more skill and time.

              Most of the mass houses to be built in Auckland, I think would follow limited number of designs so that the engineering calculations would be eliminated and mass production of timber frames , windows , roofs , doors , kitchen cabinets would be possible.

              This will reduce the requirements for skilled labour and ensure faster turn around of the labour force.

              so with the same labour force, the output may go up several fold as compared to ChCH

              Cheers

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              • #8
                Well if they're making 6 at a time on a section that will speed things up more than anything.

                I'm sure the council will find a way to add more costs to keep things compliant.
                Free online Property Investment Course from iFindProperty, a residential investment property agency.

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                • #9
                  Demand for skilled labour I.e. Builders, Plumbers, sparkles etc will skyrocket... Their costs will skyrocket with demand and bottle neck the speed of new builds... Problem is it takes 3-4 years to train these guys so not something that can be turned on fast.

                  this increased demand will also put up costs for existing home owners who need plumbing/electrical work diving cost us across the board...

                  if if you haven't designed a system for the increased demand be it building houses or demand on electricity grids or motorways you won't get the desired outcome...

                  In the housing market I can't see the preparatory work needed to facilitate the increased building happening so in my view there will be lower than needed building for the foreseeable future.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Nick G View Post
                    Well if they're making 6 at a time on a section that will speed things up more than anything.

                    I'm sure the council will find a way to add more costs to keep things compliant.
                    this is is possible if you change design of construction... I.e multistory vs. townhouses... But still need skilled trades to fit out/finish...

                    If I were 16 y.o. Now and the options ahead of me were finish school the 4yrs at Uni to then get an entry level corporate job OR do a trade (sparky) be qualified by 20 in a high demand environment for my skills.

                    I think that is the way I'd go.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Don't believe the Hype View Post
                      this is is possible if you change design of construction... I.e multistory vs. townhouses... But still need skilled trades to fit out/finish...

                      If I were 16 y.o. Now and the options ahead of me were finish school the 4yrs at Uni to then get an entry level corporate job OR do a trade (sparky) be qualified by 20 in a high demand environment for my skills.

                      I think that is the way I'd go.
                      Don't think a lot of 16 y.o. see it the same way we do. They are attracted to media and other 'glamour' areas which don't lead to jobs. We need to get teenagers with a different viewpoint on life. If they followed the path you and I see I am sure they would also find it easier to get on the housing ladder. Some serious money to be made in building for the majority and not the minority.

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                      • #12
                        My best mates son is second year building apprentice. Already nearly making as much as his father!

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by cube View Post
                          How will it all end?
                          I always see a lot of people referencing certain fundamentals such as supply but this is largely a credit bubble so it will invariably end due to a contraction of available credit (credit crunch). Once the velocity of growth starts to slow, an inversion point is eventually released which generally sparks a downward spiral with respect to the underlying value of a credit funded asset.

                          While the impetuous is difficult to predict in the current and rather unique environment, e.g. low interest rates, low inflation and high NZD (which forces the RBNZ to retain lower rates), a shock to the credit system is foreseeable where offshore events increase the cost of borrowing locally, much akin to the sub-prime crisis where offshore funding costs shot through the roof.

                          The monthly numbers for Mortgage debt credit growth is continuing to show grow YoY and at some point this becomes unstable, due to;

                          a) Bank's running out of money to lend (i.e. they hit capital constraints due to a finite local savings pool);
                          b) Borrowers face a diminishing marginal ability to borrow as the value of properties ultimately exceeds their affordability levels'
                          c) Offshore demand begins to wane.
                          c) Government intervention - i.e. the RBNZ intervenes to slow growth, potentially affecting either points a) or b) above, or the Government begins to cap foreign buyers (c).

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Boom View Post
                            Continued stagflation, rising unemployment, and rising super/health costs for another decade eventually force a government to change either or both - baby boomers forced to sell en masse.
                            Wow, wouldn't that be nice.
                            Don't hold your breath though, the old folks are tough from hanging on to careers through dog-eat-dog restructures, they have worked hard for what they have and won't be going anywhere any time soon.
                            Methinks you will have to wait until they shuffle off their mortal coil, and with their means don't be surprised if many are still around when you are feeling the years.
                            Last edited by Eugene; 03-08-2016, 01:34 PM. Reason: typo

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                            • #15
                              How long do you think it will be before you all realise this is probably the new normal. This is normal in so many cities and somehow Auckland is going to be uniquely different. I doubt it.

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