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The next 6 - 24 months - are you bullish, bearish, or sitting on the fence...

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  • The next 6 - 24 months - are you bullish, bearish, or sitting on the fence...

    A simple, but at the same time, very complicated question really...

    Today, here, now, how are you feeling about the next 6-24 months in terms of the property market, the world economy and the world's sharemarkets.

    There are no right or wrong answers (I certainly don't have the time or inclincation to argue with anyone).

    Everyone's opinion is as valid as anyone's else.

    Thanks in advance for voting.
    43
    I'm VERY BULLISH about world markets and economies over the next 6-24 mths
    2.33%
    1
    I'm A BIT BULLISH about world markets and economies over the next 6-24 mths
    20.93%
    9
    I'm NIETHER BULLISH or BEARISH - I think things will be realitively stable over the next 6-24 mths
    32.56%
    14
    I'm A BIT BEARISH about world markets and economies over the next 6-24 mths
    18.60%
    8
    I'm VERY BEARISH about world markets and economies over the next 6-24 mths
    25.58%
    11

    The poll is expired.

    Last edited by Mark_B; 14-04-2010, 11:20 AM.
    Comments may not be relevant to individual circumstances. Before making any investment, financial or taxation decision you should consult a professional adviser.

  • #2
    http://www.quantum-conservation.org/...LAR%20BEAR.jpg

    Guess which one I chose.
    "You’re neither right nor wrong because other people agree with you. You’re right because your facts are right and your reasoning is right"

    Comment


    • #3
      Medium.

      I think a decade of above-average inflation, below-average job growth, and above-average taxes will be needed to fix this debt problem.

      Fortunately most governments will not let things get too bad otherwise they'll get voted out. Unfortunately they will pander to the lowest common demoninator and start taking socialist bents against successful people such as landlords.

      Comment


      • #4
        I am well stocked up on baked beans, razor wire, dog food for the Alsatians and shotgun cartridges.

        But then, I always was an optimist.

        SB

        Comment


        • #5
          Cautiously optimistic, but actually trying not to predict what will happen? Why? Because we can't anyway.

          See The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb for reasons why we can't predict the future.
          Squadly dinky do!

          Comment


          • #6
            One thing I've noticed over and over since buying my first property in '96 is that when a majority of the experts predict a particular scenario occurring (interest rates going through the roof, the property market crashing, boom times ahead, etc.) almost the exact opposite has happened. When all the experts have predicted huge interest rises on the way they have always either remained stable or gone down! I'm not saying they won't rise but I think you get my point that even the most well respected authorities are taking a (albeit well educated) stab in the dark like everyone else. The head of the RBA said that experts have predicted 10 of the last 2 recessions.

            Comment


            • #7
              I wanted to vote 'neither', but had to vote 'niether'. How that grates.

              Comment


              • #8
                Certainly more 'Bullish' than I was 18 months ago. I feel that this sentiment is growing which will inevitably lead to pressure on those who rely on borrowing at current lending rates.

                The only 'Bearish' sentiment I have in PI is the extent to which the May budget will hit PI's pockets. I feel this has the potential to be one of the most significant dates in PI in recent years. Personally not making any decisions until this budget is unleashed.

                Comment


                • #9
                  If you have 30 mins to kill check this out.


                  From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZA0qNsf4m0
                  Last edited by donna; 14-04-2010, 06:32 PM.
                  "You’re neither right nor wrong because other people agree with you. You’re right because your facts are right and your reasoning is right"

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Cautiously optimistic, but actually trying not to predict what will happen? Why? Because we can't anyway.
                    Davo, you are quite right about this, but it shouldn't dissuade anyone from attempting to understand possible economic scenarios!

                    Being hindered by an economic degree (read educated idiot) means I"m very interested in the effect of the massive debt burden on economic policy.

                    At the moment I hover between being slightly to very bearish. Why? Many countries around the world are in the same position.... having to sell increasingly larger number of bonds to fund deficits. This can only mean interst rates will trend upwards. If the various economies can handle this, then I'm slightly bearish. But there should be some great buying opportunities out there as homeowners dump their homes as mortgage rates become unaffordabe.

                    BUT...and this is the worry, if investors lose confidence in the bond market (and there is talk of this in Greece as I write) then we are in for some very trying times. Remember, govt bonds are supposed to be the ultimate "risk free" investment, not usually regarded as junk bonds.

                    If this happens, then there will have be a hugely negative effect on world economies. Interst rates will jump dramatically to compensate for the risk factor. And this will be just the start of the bad news.

                    I certainly aren't rushing out to buy at the moment.
                    Last edited by Ahar; 14-04-2010, 03:08 PM.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      ENP, I had a brief flick through it. Total nonsense from what I could see.

                      Ahar, yes the bond market's a bit of a worry, but the thing is the EU just won't let Greece fall. They just gave them (lent them) another $40 billion to tide them over.

                      No one is allowed to fail right now.
                      Last edited by Davo36; 14-04-2010, 04:06 PM.
                      Squadly dinky do!

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Davo36 View Post
                        ENP, I had a brief flick through it. Total nonsense from what I could see.
                        You think hyperinflation is nonsense?
                        "You’re neither right nor wrong because other people agree with you. You’re right because your facts are right and your reasoning is right"

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Yep.

                          I think inflation may increase a bit, so for instance commercial lending rates might go to say 10 or even 12 percent. But I don't think we'll see hyperinflation.

                          I actually think the reserve banks around the place have got it about right.

                          And by the way if you predict inflation, you want to be in property, not gold or silver or cash IMHO. You want the capital gains that come with inflation as well as the erosion of your mortgages. Bring it on.

                          David
                          Squadly dinky do!

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            When those rates go up to 10-12% like you say, how would you tackle the situation of a first home buyer buying their first house or rental. Won't they be even further behind the ball game?

                            Or with the house prices going up for inflation, flipping properties may become a good option?
                            "You’re neither right nor wrong because other people agree with you. You’re right because your facts are right and your reasoning is right"

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              On the fence, don't want to be, want to be more bullish BUT having spent some time in Oz recently NZ has a long long way to catch up even with that market.
                              www.ilender.co.nz
                              Financial Paramedics

                              Comment

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