Do property sales drop in winter? Fact or myth.

[whitt]

Agents find less interest in winter. Sales volumes may not drop much perhaps but certainly buyer activity is less. Therefore prices may be affected due to laws of supply and demand and it is certainly true that many agents advise against selling in winter if you want a good price

Disagree
Lets assume that maybe In winter there is less buyer activity. Combine this with fewer houses for sale and the price remains unaffected. Supply and demand.

[whitt]

OK
Have thought now on the process of how the mind works and why we have all believed the myth.

Story:

You finally purchase that new car you have been waiting for.
From that point on you seem to notice that there are quite a few of this car on the road. Same colour, same make. The cars have always been there you just haven't noticed them.

[Monid]

1. Agree.
2. Owner occupiers buy new houses which come onstream throughout the year which start the chain of subsequent conditional sales. But summer certainly makes people feel better. Now, which side am I supporting?

The same as always, your own

I think new houses will be too small to make much difference, but if it was, aren't there better or worse times to build? I would have thought summer was preferable due to not losing days to rain etc?

Cheers
David

[Gerrard]

And another angle on it. Every property manager I have ever dealt with also talks about the lack of renters over the winter months. People don't like to move in this time (who wants to get their trailer load of posessions soaked) and prospective houses usually look colder and less inviting in winter.

I have been on the receiving end of this with higher vacancies and lower rents achieved in the winter months. Is this a one off or have others experienced it too?

If it applies to renters then I'm sure it would apply to buyers too.

Gerrard

[RonHoyFong]

Buy in Winter; Sell in Summer!

Oi ! Oi ! Oi !

Sale figures will not show what is really happening.

You are all on the right track, but missed the real point.

Its all about Home-buyers versus the Property Investors.

General demand by the Home-buyer (who normally pay retail prices) will drop because of the less time available to see houses as a direct result of day-light savings and wet weather. Come October when daylight savings is back, Spring is in the air and we all know what that does to the energy levels.

More opportunities for the astute investors arises in Winter months as a result of reduced demands from Home-Buyers,

For those investors who have done a lot more than a couple of properties will know this.

The sales volumes will still be up because investors are out buying more at wholesale prices.

It common knowledge than when selling a home that it is best sold in Spring and Summer.

(As the saying goes, buy in Winter , sell in Summer)

Cheers Ron
(Justice of the Property Peace)

[xris]

It common knowledge than when selling a home that it is best sold in Spring and Summer.

That's news to me Ron.

[whitt]

I have been on the receiving end of this with higher vacancies and lower rents achieved in the winter months. Is this a one off or have others experienced it too?

Yes I have seen it too.
But the stats do not show the similar with sales volumes.

[whitt]

It common knowledge than when selling a home that it is best sold in Spring and Summer.

Ummmm.
Is this another Urban Myth I need to work on?

[Josko]

Sale figures will not show what is really happening.

The sales volumes will still be up because investors are out buying more at wholesale prices.

The market is the market irrespective of who the buyer or the seller is Ron, clearly whitt has uncovered that fact that sales are not affected by being sold in the winter or the summer seasons.

I would go with whitt here, a myth, any chance of sharing the data whitt, I'd be interested in those graphs?

[Scott Miller]

Despite what we might think of ourselves as investors,in the overall sales of houses sold in NZ we surly only make up a small percentage.
As investors, weather does not get in the way of a good bargain being purchased, but for the average mum and dad home buyer who's lives are already too busy, the decrease in daylight hours, bad weather and impaired visual condition of property must have an effect on sales.
I take it that the 'Christmas' comments are only to highlight that there is a dip in house sale during the uear as last time I checked Xmas in NZ is in the Summer.

[whitt]

Sale figures will not show what is really happening.

Its all about Home-buyers versus the Property Investors.

More opportunities for the astute investors arises in Winter months as a result of reduced demands from Home-Buyers,

The sales volumes will still be up because investors are out buying more at wholesale prices.

Ron agrees it is a Myth ( See bold above).
Anybody else?

Going by Ron's theory the market would drop from fewer home buyers but this is made up for by an increase in investor demand. Volumes remain unchanged. (The actual numbers involved here must be quite small as investors account for a very small portion of the market).

[whitt]

I would go with Whitt here, a myth, any chance of sharing the data Whitt, I'd be interested in those graphs?

There are so many property myths I wanted to do some myth buster style research myself.

People believe most things plausible.

The problem I found was the availibilty of accurate information.

Most data was secondhand.

In the end I used the www.suburbwatch.co.nz data. My understanding is they have several statisticians to ensure the info is the most accurate in NZ.

[xris]

Despite what we might think of ourselves as investors,in the overall sales of houses sold in NZ we surly only make up a small percentage.
As investors, weather does not get in the way of a good bargain being purchased, but for the average mum and dad home buyer who's lives are already too busy, the decrease in daylight hours, bad weather and impaired visual condition of property must have an effect on sales.
I take it that the 'Christmas' comments are only to highlight that there is a dip in house sale during the uear as last time I checked Xmas in NZ is in the Summer.

Exactly. So much for the winter myth.

However, if you want to buy a house to live in then you will not be put off by such irrelevances as rain and having to rearrange your daily routine to view a house. If you like a house but it is too dark to see it properly from the outside or the views it offers then you will see it later at the soonest possible time. Also the number of open homes taking place at night is negligable. 2.00pm is light enough, even in winter.

Nobody who seriously needs to buy a home to live in is going to sit down and think: "I'll wait till winter when there won't be so much competition so I'll be able to buy below market (or should I say 'at wholesale prices' - whatever that is supposed to mean.")

Heavy rain may put off some people, but these will be the casual, not seriously buying, people. Good weather is likely to have the same, if not a greater effect on the numbers viewing at open homes - they're all down at the beach. Similarly a big game on TV will have an effect on open home numbers.

But again, the investor won't be put off, and neither will the serious home buyer. When I last decided seriously to buy a home for myself, that was all I thought about. the idea of not buying because the interest rates were too high or the weather was too bad to view, or I needeed to do some shopping did not even come into my thinking. The same is true when I find a rental I want to buy.

xris

[RonHoyFong]

That's news to me Ron.

No worries Xris and others, we can all learn something every day, I am happy to help, all you need now is to TAKE ACTION

A great book to read:
“Tips & Traps When Buying a Home" (Third Edition) by Robert Irwin

http://www.amazon.com/Tips-Traps-When-Buying-Home/dp/0070328846

Over 1,000,000 TIPS & TRAPS Books Sold

Refer to Page 10:
TIP-BUY AND SELL AT PEAK TIMES OF THE YEAR
Buy in Winter months, then sell in spring and early summer to maximize your profit.


I guess what we are talking about here is not a whether how many houses are sold or not, but the price they can be negotiated down too.

Don't be confused with buying your home or that of an IPs. When buying a home there is a tendency to be emotional.

It doesn't take much to knock a few K's off here and there to save a few bucks.

Buying opportunities are better in Winter for young investors to strike better bargaining prices through the negotiating process simply because there are less home buyers around who are prepared to pay retail prices.

Of course there will always be good times any time of the year if you are good at negotiating.

Of course there will always be other good times of the year such as xmas in NZ when it's holiday times for buyers, vendors, agents, lawyers, banks...

Of course this will also be a time when I am buying and many investors like yourselves will be on holiday.

Myths are myths, you are all free to take advantage of it or reject it, the choice is yours. I choose to manifest it as a fact, and use it as a negotiating advantage.

Perhaps this is the difference of why some people buy 20 properties in one year and others don't, yet both have the same opportunity to create.


Cheers Ron
(Justice of the Property Peace)

[xris]

...simply because there are less home buyers around who are prepared to pay retail (?) prices.

That's news to me Ron.

xris