Do property sales drop in winter? Fact or myth.

[whitt]

I have watched a small teaser clip on a website in which Phil J explains sales volumes dropping off post Daylight savings and during winter.

Does property sales volume decrease post daylight savings and during winter?

I had always thought the same too.
But having done some research I have come to the conclusion that this in not necessarily true. It is more a factor of where we are in the property cycle not the time of the year.

I researched Data from numerous suburbs in NZ going back several years. A couple of suburbs did have a small drop in sales volume for quarter 2 and 3 but it was very small. And there were many more which actually had increases in volume.

My conclusion:
Does property sales volume decrease post daylight savings and during winter?

I found there is no direct correlation between volumes and time of year.

Possibly a Urban legend or unproven Myth.

[Gerrard]

It's a common view held by a lot of people with experience in the industry. Not to say it isn't a myth tho...

Perhaps it is not the volumes that drop but the days to sell? Gives the appearance of the market being slower?

Gerrard

[Scott Miller]

I would agreeing that there is a dip in property sales during the winter hours.
I cannot remember where I read this but I think it was in one of pooomba's observations.

He stated that any week day viewing in winter was hampered by finishing work times in relation to daylight hours remaining, Effectively reducing any daylight viewing for 5/7 days of the week.
This I believe has to have a roll over effect on sales.

I would also put forward that any emotional purchases (by far the most common), such as how a property looks would also have a significant impact on sales.

But facts are facts so I would be interested in any figures that can be produced

[xris]

Does property sales drop in winter?Fact or myth.

Myth.

xris

[whitt]

OK
Now we are getting somewhere. Some good healthy debate.

The thing with urban myths is they usually are plausible.
People just believe the myth.

I would like users to look at some stats and educate me further if you think Xris and I are incorrect.

Does property sales volume decrease post daylight savings and during winter?


P.S
I have more myths to follow in coming weeks

[xris]

There will be a dip at Christmas but that is all.

If you are buying on emotion and you love views then a vendor has the advantage if he is selling in Tekapo, Wanaka or the Port Hills in Christchurch, if he sells in winter.

If the same vendor is selling in Golden Bay he might have the edge in summer with warm beaches and lots of pretty flowers. In April there are some stunning autumnal leaves in some places in Central Otago. And in October everybody is happy at the warmer weather and the longer days and the blossom.

xris

[whitt]

Any dip for Xmas appears masked in the stats as I can't find any which show me down to a weekly level.

But I agree that Xmas there will be a small dip as there are more public holidays and titles will not be processed on a holiday.

That will mean Easter to be same.

My challenge is still on for everyone to show me some official stats on my Myth busting discovery.

[Stevegoodey]

Yes and no.

Christmas stats are lower because lawyers take 11 months off over the break and buyers go on holiday and stay away from open homes.

All reason's why I love shopping for property from the 20th December.

But Easter is different people can't go to the mall they get bored and decide to steal shit from other peoples houses at open homes......Sorry I had a bad experience I'll be OK in a minute.

Anyway you get the idea.

Cheers

Steve

[Monid]

I'll pick myth, there may be less daylight hours but I'm betting the average house shopper only looks at one or two places in a day and there is plenty of time for that. The only dip will be for folk looking at heaps of places in one day, which would I think be rare.

Cheers
David

PS Whitt, like the idea and looking forward to some more Facts or Myths

[whitt]

Thanks David

I look forward to a good challenge.

[tricky]

Myth.
My theory:
1. Investors - buy whenever they have enough finance and find the figures adding up. Nothing to do with summer or winter.
2. Ordinary people (PPOR) - they buy when they have to - relocated because of work reasons, enlarged family makes PPOR too small, sudden windfall of money, health reasons, divorce etc. Something happens so they're selling/buying. Nothing to do with summer or winter.

I think RE agents spin this line in July/August as an aid to get listings - "Now we're approaching spring we'll get lots more people at the open homes ...." That bit might be true but these additional people are tyre kickers.

[Stevegoodey]

Myth.
My theory:
1. Investors - buy whenever they have enough finance and find the figures adding up. Nothing to do with summer or winter.
2. Ordinary people (PPOR) - they buy when they have to - relocated because of work reasons, enlarged family makes PPOR too small, sudden windfall of money, health reasons, divorce etc. Something happens so they're selling/buying. Nothing to do with summer or winter.

I think RE agents spin this line in July/August as an aid to get listings - "Now we're approaching spring we'll get lots more people at the open homes ...." That bit might be true but these additional people are tyre kickers.

1 True but investors are too smaller part of the market to make much difference.

2 Also true but owmer occupiers can only buy a great property they love if another property owner sells one, what if less people are selling because they think they will get more in summer?

[Dean@Massiveaction]

True. Agents find less interest in winter. Sales volumes may not drop much perhaps but certainly buyer activity is less. Therefore prices may be affected due to laws of supply and demand and it is certainly true that many agents advise against selling in winter if you want a good price

[tricky]

1 True but investors are too smaller part of the market to make much difference.

2 Also true but owmer occupiers can only buy a great property they love if another property owner sells one, what if less people are selling because they think they will get more in summer?

1. Agree.
2. Owner occupiers buy new houses which come onstream throughout the year which start the chain of subsequent conditional sales. But summer certainly makes people feel better. Now, which side am I supporting?

[tricky]

True. Agents find less interest in winter. Sales volumes may not drop much perhaps but certainly buyer activity is less. Therefore prices may be affected due to laws of supply and demand and it is certainly true that many agents advise against selling in winter if you want a good price

Dean, when do you find the best buys - summer or winter?
The old supply/demand thing may give a clue.
If more bargains in winter - is that because there are less sales in winter?