Signs of recession

[donna]

Thought this was interesting and worth watching.

400K Kiwis in credit repayments arrears. Personal loans and credit cards are the first to be hit with defaults. Car loans next and then mortgages.

5.3 % increase in car loan repayments defaults since 2020.

New mortgages are down 43%.

The increase in car loan defaults is worrying.

[Platinum Mortgages Broker]

It’s scary seeing so many people with short term loans (personal loans and car loans etc), where they’re paying 20%pa or even 25%pa in some instances!

[donna]

Banks are around 13 % Only the very desperate with bad credit ratings would have a loan at 25%.

cheers

Donna

[Perry]

Banks are around 13 % Only the very desperate with bad credit ratings would have a loan at 25%.

Agreed. Those with a bad credit record, or who simply look risky based on an ability-to-pay assessment won't get a second look from a bank. The 25 percenters are likely with the lenders of last resort.

[Platinum Mortgages Broker]

Absolutely agree! And unfortunately we have seen many out there, who have a combination of bank personal loans and smaller finance company personal loans / cards (which have higher rates) – sometimes in excess of $100K! It blows me away how some manage to get there sometimes ..

[Frezzinghot]

Absolutely agree! And unfortunately we have seen many out there, who have a combination of bank personal loans and smaller finance company personal loans / cards (which have higher rates) – sometimes in excess of $100K! It blows me away how some manage to get there sometimes ..

They got there trying to ACT rich with a poor mindset!

[chook]

Hosking radio this morning,...."No worldwide recession, looks like it will be a soft landing"

OMG the guy is a shocker..

[Jeffa]

Hosking radio this morning,...."No worldwide recession, looks like it will be a soft landing"

OMG the guy is a shocker..

Recession still likely in play for NZ

Fed likely to pivot or begin cutting rates in the second half of this year, markets beginning to price this in, NZD moved above 65c today , As we Flander about trying to fix our inflation, the US is well and truly killing their inflation problem.

The market is pricing in a lower Fed fund rate 2nd half 2023, this will strengthen the Kiwi dollar and weaken the exchange rate on our export sector, which would put us in recession... right about election time.

With floating rates going higher, business use these rates the most, this will add to recession pressure's.

The government is scrambling to get our borders open to save our economy and give Labour a chance of winning the election this year.

[donna]

^^ not sure NZ can cope with more tourists. 500,000 in 2 months and so many adventure tourism businesses don’t have capacity to operate. What are the tourists going to do? The Chateau Tongariro is permanently closed so there is a stop at the national park now off the agenda.

Crime is up and the tourists may end up a soft target. It doesn’t take long to ruin a good reputation.

What NZ needs is a slower opening to give businesses time to get the staff they need and systems up to scratch.

[Perry]

What NZ needs is a slower opening to give businesses time to get the staff they need and systems up to scratch.

And from whence shalt they come? Couch
potatoes prevail as the socio commie gummint
pays them for their votes with rewards greater
than most businesses can afford.

[chook]

Hosking radio this morning,...."No worldwide recession, looks like it will be a soft landing"

OMG the guy is a shocker..

Now Robertson our 'sports minister' (whos never played a day of sport in his life) "There is a chance NZ will avoid a recession"..

LMAO

[Frezzinghot]

Now Robertson our 'sports minister' (whos never played a day of sport in his life) "There is a chance NZ will avoid a recession"..

LMAO

Like the "Tired" ex prime minister DELUSIONAL!!!

[flyernzl]

I suspect that there will be a lot more dodgy and high rate car loans.
Many people in flooded areas have lost their drive-to-work cars, and these cars are propbably uninsured (or, if insured, may well be third-party only).
In order to retain their jobs they need a vehicle, and having no fall-back funds will need to borrow from anywhere, at any price, in order to replace their lost transport.
Desperate people taking desperate risks.

[donna]

They can draw on their KiwiSaver if they have it aye.

[chook]

I suspect that there will be a lot more dodgy and high rate car loans.
Many people in flooded areas have lost their drive-to-work cars, and these cars are propbably uninsured (or, if insured, may well be third-party only).
In order to retain their jobs they need a vehicle, and having no fall-back funds will need to borrow from anywhere, at any price, in order to replace their lost transport.
Desperate people taking desperate risks.

But wait theres more! Robertson the tooth fairy will begin dishing out money hand over fist shortly, $40k for affected businesses... what!!, Isnt this what personal insurance was for??

All of this highly inflationary.