Interest Rates

[Jeffa]

BUBBLE time NZ one for the history books

You should see a house price graph from when land was traded for beads, muskets and blankets, that was truly bubble material!!, can't wait for that to pop!

Or perhaps I'll be dead by then.

[Chris W]

BUBBLE time NZ one for the history books

For the record

"The residential real estate market in New Zealand is in the process of turning. Spring for 2022 looks like being one in which housing as an asset to grow one’s family in becomes dominant. What will follow is the flow of people who treat housing as a portfolio asset, and that is when price movement can surprise. Blink and you miss it."

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/tony-alexander-blink-and-you-miss-it-the-housing-market-is-at-a-turning-point-42214

[Jeffa]

At least OZ seems to have there house in order somewhat...(get it? House, Jeffa made a funny)

[Perry]

But affordability measured by the ratio of house prices to income becomes meaningless when we acknowledge that most people buy a house with a mortgage and affordability is primarily a function of interest rate, not the purchase price.

Odd perspective. Is the interest rate or the deposit required the 'primary function,' rather than the purchase price?

Mind you, I have little regard for the dubious prognostications of the econ-o-mist soothsayers from the empty box of economics.

Ahhhh, well, we'll wait and see if we blink (or not) at the chosen crystal-ball moment.

Bah! Humbug! The ghosts of econ-o-mists past.

[JBM]

Worsening housing affordability presents an increased risk of mortgage defaults in New Zealand, according to credit rating agency Moody's Investor Services.

In a new report on covered bonds issued by NZ banks, Moody's says it expects housing affordability will remain significantly worse than the average for the last 10 years, "which is credit negative for residential mortgage covered bonds we rate in New Zealand."

The report said rising interest rates meant the mortgage payments on new mortgages taken out in August this year would eat up an average of 39.1% of average household income, up from 35.4% a year earlier.

In Auckland, new borrowers required an average of 47.1% of average household income to meet their mortgage payments.

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/117675/moodys-says-worsening-housing-affordability-has-increased-risk-mortgage-defaults

[adm]

Worsening housing affordability presents an increased risk of mortgage defaults in New Zealand, according to credit rating agency Moody's Investor Services.

In a new report on covered bonds issued by NZ banks, Moody's says it expects housing affordability will remain significantly worse than the average for the last 10 years, "which is credit negative for residential mortgage covered bonds we rate in New Zealand."

The report said rising interest rates meant the mortgage payments on new mortgages taken out in August this year would eat up an average of 39.1% of average household income, up from 35.4% a year earlier.

In Auckland, new borrowers required an average of 47.1% of average household income to meet their mortgage payments.

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...tgage-defaults

I spoke to a reliable source who said there is a lot of 2.75% mortgages coming up for refix in April/May, could the 1 year rate be closer to 6% by then? If the GDP is up and inflation has only plateaud surely you’d have to assume more hikes were incoming, how far passed necessary will they take it.

[JBM]

I spoke to a reliable source who said there is a lot of 2.75% mortgages coming up for refix in April/May, could the 1 year rate be closer to 6% by then? If the GDP is up and inflation has only plateaud surely you’d have to assume more hikes were incoming, how far passed necessary will they take it.

Yes I think so ... ANZ standard rates now all over 6% .... will the other banks follow ? FED raised 75bpts over night and is talking another 125bpts before the years out ... RBNZ will be force to continue to raise ... we may even see high 6% rates being the lowest 1yr fixed etc by MAY 23 >>

[Jeffa]

Yes I think so ... ANZ standard rates now all over 6% .... will the other banks follow ? FED raised 75bpts over night and is talking another 125bpts before the years out ... RBNZ will be force to continue to raise ... we may even see high 6% rates being the lowest 1yr fixed etc by MAY 23 >>

Most of the Feds data is rear vision looking, Powell even stated there data is from the past 3/6/9 months, which is how they get their forcasting so wrong.

Fed or RBNZ not taking into account current and future deflationary pressures beginning to pop up all over the world

Hell, I just topped up my bike tank for $2.22 at the pump, if oil is tumbling, you can expect inflation to follow.

Didn't fuel prices almost touch $4 only 6 months ago? Yes we are getting tax cuts at the pump, but that's still a big drop .

Fed and RBNZ getting it wrong again just like they did with over stimulating the economy.

[Jeffa]

Most of the Feds data is rear vision looking, Powell even stated there data is from the past 3/6/9 months, which is how they get their forcasting so wrong.

Fed or RBNZ not taking into account current and future deflationary pressures beginning to pop up all over the world

Hell, I just topped up my bike tank for $2.22 at the pump, if oil is tumbling, you can expect inflation to follow.

Didn't fuel prices almost touch $4 only 6 months ago? Yes we are getting tax cuts at the pump, but that's still a big drop .

Fed and RBNZ getting it wrong again just like they did with over stimulating the economy.

Oil fell another 5% overnight, I wonder if Adrian and his Mate Jerome is awake at the wheel?

[McDuck]

Oil fell another 5% overnight, I wonder if Adrian and his Mate Jerome is awake at the wheel?

Cool cryptic message time..


This is so much simpler that you are making it.
They know where they're steering the ship.
It's a new island with new rules.
Forget everything you have been relying on.
It won't work there.

[adm]

Cool cryptic message time..


This is so much simpler that you are making it.
They know where they're steering the ship.
It's a new island with new rules.
Forget everything you have been relying on.
It won't work there.

Hate to agree, but yup.

It’s not by accident that they locked down the entire world for the flu before “it” was even in countries. Print money, over QE, increase debt tenfold, over QT, watch every market & household bleed, make humanity reliant on “the powers at be”.

The ship is full steam ahead, calculated & orchestrated.

[JBM]

Hate to agree, but yup.

It’s not by accident that they locked down the entire world for the flu before “it” was even in countries. Print money, over QE, increase debt tenfold, over QT, watch every market & household bleed, make humanity reliant on “the powers at be”.

The ship is full steam ahead, calculated & orchestrated.

Yes you get the feeling for sometime all the major people in power are working for the same goal under the WEF from Putin to Biden... Xi Jinping and all the western leaders that seem to read from the same scrip??

.. Absolute control of the masses via muti attacks on are freedoms and how we will transact(cashless society) and our wealth(Taxes/market crashes) our FEAR .. systematic organised attacks ... Pandemics , Wars , Climate change ,Oil Spikes to crashes ...we seen oil go from sub price to $140bbl to now crashing again ...

Anyone that does any major Macro research into world events and agenda's can surely put it all together ... just think of the Afghan war that all of a sudden was all over after 14yrs ... all the billions USD $$$$ worth of Military Equipment left behind to be used by the same Terrorist's al-Qaeda and the Taliban that so called wanted freedom loving Americans dead... stage left next up Putin Russia its your turn to keep the War machine going>>

All WEF appointed agenda coordinator leaders had only one job - destroy your country!.. just look at what Jacinda and team have done..

[Frezzinghot]

Yes you get the feeling for sometime all the major people in power are working for the same goal under the WEF from Putin to Biden... Xi Jinping and all the western leaders that seem to read from the same scrip??

.. Absolute control of the masses via muti attacks on are freedoms and how we will transact(cashless society) and our wealth(Taxes/market crashes) our FEAR .. systematic organised attacks ... Pandemics , Wars , Climate change ,Oil Spikes to crashes ...we seen oil go from sub price to $140bbl to now crashing again ...

Anyone that does any major Macro research into world events and agenda's can surely put it all together ... just think of the Afghan war that all of a sudden was all over after 14yrs ... all the billions USD $$$$ worth of Military Equipment left behind to be used by the same Terrorist's al-Qaeda and the Taliban that so called wanted freedom loving Americans dead... stage left next up Putin Russia its your turn to keep the War machine going>>

All WEF appointed agenda coordinator leaders had only one job - destroy your country!.. just look at what Jacinda and team have done..

It’s all there in plain sight. But sheep will be sheep.

”how dare you…Greta!

[Perry]

Never ascribe to conspiracy that which can be put down to stupidity, goes an old axiom.

Are the orchestraters that smart? Or the people that dumb? A mix of both?

The "elite" will still need a suitable 'slave' population of serfs to fetch and carry for them. And a means to control them, too. Robots?

But what's all that got to do with interest rates?

[Jeffa]

US 10y 3.9% blew through my predictions of a 3.2% top, swaps could push our 1y rates higher... check that "Will" push our one rates year higher.

Luckily a good portion of investors are mortgage free like Perry, these guys and girls will save our housing market from an imminent collapse.

Thanks for being responsible Perry.. because I'm not!!

Debt to the moon!!