Interest Rates

[Jeffa]

Westpac/

– Consumer confidence has continued to fall,
and there are now more New Zealanders
who are pessimistic about the economic
environment than there are those who
are optimistic.

– Among the factors that are likely to be
weighing on consumer sentiment are rising
mortgage rates, as well as ongoing concerns
about Covid and its variants.

– Many households have reported that their
financial position has deteriorated over the
past year, and a growing number expect their
finances will come under pressure in the
new year.

– While there was a modest increase in
Auckland following the easing in lockdown
conditions, most other regions recorded
sharp falls in consumer confidence
this quarter.

[Frezzinghot]

Westpac/

– Consumer confidence has continued to fall,
and there are now more New Zealanders
who are pessimistic about the economic
environment than there are those who
are optimistic.

– Among the factors that are likely to be
weighing on consumer sentiment are rising
mortgage rates, as well as ongoing concerns
about Covid and its variants.

– Many households have reported that their
financial position has deteriorated over the
past year, and a growing number expect their
finances will come under pressure in the
new year.

– While there was a modest increase in
Auckland following the easing in lockdown
conditions, most other regions recorded
sharp falls in consumer confidence
this quarter.

Not much of a surprise really, I see this on the street.I don't think the bigger ticket items such as tvs, computers etc are fairing very well.

Mortgage cost increases on a 800-1m k mortgage would be scary, more slaves created for the men at the top.

Meanwhile my portfolio and cash remain steady, I'm under no pressure, in fact Ive started up a small business which is bringing in even more cash, along with my JOB life is good, next I will look to buy off a over leveraged home owner or investor and make even more money.

This plandemic has been good for business.

[Perry]

Westpac
– Consumer confidence has continued to fall,
and there are now more New Zealanders
who are pessimistic about the economic
environment than there are those who
are optimistic.

From whence did WeSux garner their data?

– Among the factors that are likely to be
weighing on consumer sentiment are rising
mortgage rates, as well as ongoing concerns
about Covid and its variants.

Interest rates are going up with who / where?

– Many households have reported that their
financial position has deteriorated over the
past year, and a growing number expect their
finances will come under pressure in the
new year.

How many? 10? 50? 1000? And as a percentage on NZ households, what . . .?

– While there was a modest increase in
Auckland following the easing in lockdown
conditions, most other regions recorded
sharp falls in consumer confidence
this quarter.

Again - the source and scale / scope of that data is . . . . ?

Yet just another bit of addle-brained bank econ-o-mist waffle / babble / pseudo-prediction.

[Jeffa]

China has begun to cut interest rates/First cut since April 2020 and First country to successfully contain the coronavirus while the rest of the world went into lockdown.

The one-year LPR was lowered by 5 basis points to 3.80% from 3.85% previously, while the five-year LPR remained at 4.65%.

"The cut reinforces our view that authorities are increasingly open to cutting interest rates amid looming economic headwinds," said Xing Zhaopeng, senior China strategist at ANZ.

However, he noted the decision to keep the five-year rate unchanged showed Beijing preferred "not to use the property sector to stimulate economic growth."

[McDuck]

China has begun to...

Be careful when you judge China with a western mindset.

The overall picture is telling us something important.

Something different to what you are noticing.

And remember, little old NZ are well ahead of even the US in this chain of events.

[Jeffa]

Neutral rate will be slightly above 2%

2y bond yields being forward looking seem to already have already been priced in.
Xmas is next week and shops look to be down on compacity compared to the past decade, the economy is slowing , RBNZ and retail bank's need to be careful with the liquidity squeeze or the NZ economy will fall off a cliff.

Inflation will likely peak this quarter and deflation will begin in 2022.

Those who are concerned about interest need not, they will begin to retreat on the longer term rates next year.

Depending on the government elected in 2023

Once the borders open up fully, population growth will attract skilled immigrants driving down labour costs.

Technology/Automation will continue to advance as has been the last several decades, this will all be deflationary.

The CPI will lower forcing interest rates down, pushing up asset prices like property.

Not many in media report this, as in my predictions in February 2020 I'm year's ahead of anyone else.


I would love to share my opinions more often, unfortunately troll's on this forum love shouting me down.

It's no wonder nobody post's on here anymore.


https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zea...ear-note-yield

I'm well ahead of this guy/ perhaps you need to hide this thread aswell.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/nz-housing-downturn-will-mean-rate-cuts-in-2023-economist/EJLHWEWS3YTOJIEDIZ7K2CZC2A/

[Jeffa]

What's not being talked about is the largest debt holder in New Zealand which is the NZ government has to pay higher interest rates aswell when rates are expected to increase next week from the RBNZ.

Headwinds which will slow down and possibly reverse interest rates towards Q4 2022.

No more money printing/Less liquidity
Declining population/Less tax revenue

Highest inflation in 40 year's/Less spending/Less GST

Vaccine mandates/more people out of work.

Flat to negative NZ sharemarket/less investment in business

War in Europe.

And these will happen after The Omicron variant has peaked.

At this stage I see the farmers keeping the country afloat, if war breaks out in Europe that could change.

I haven't listened to the podium of truth since early 2021

But I always listen to who's really in control of our country and that's the Central Bank.

[Perry]

I'm quite unsure about the expressions "in control" and NZ's RBNZ ("Central bank") fitting comfortably in the same sentence.

I suspect that Michael Reddell bailed from the RBNZ when the new governor's previous experience related to being the head man at bLotto - a gambling institution.

What's gone wrong at the Reserve Bank? | Stuff.co.nz

[donna]

NZ Trade in Europe is small - so not sure the Ukraine war would impact us too much (but I might be missing something?)

Our premium trading partner is China and we're feeding millions of them - how would the Ukraine war affect that trade?

cheers,

Donna

[Jeffa]

NZ Trade in Europe is small - so not sure the Ukraine war would impact us too much (but I might be missing something?)

Our premium trading partner is China and we're feeding millions of them - how would the Ukraine war affect that trade?

cheers,

Donna

All markets are intertwined

If one market falls, the others follow .

When sharemarkets crash from war, people run back to cash and hoard,people spend less on quality products like NZ milk,lamb.

We no longer have an education export sector and our tourism industry may be years away from recovery with tourists being cautious of covid.

We are not immune to this, our weak kiwi dollar and farmers favorable exchange rate are holding up our economy, war can change this.

I don't see much else protecting our economy besides reopening ,printing more money and or lowering interest rates if the global economy goes into recession.

And even this may not help in an inflationary period.

And just remember it wasn't governance that saved our economy, it was the printing of billions of dollars

Did the RBNZ just delay the inevitable like the government delayed the virus from what was always going to happen?

[donna]

If you had a loan coming off a 1yr fix in July - what would you do Jeffa?

Move to variable and wait for interest rates to drop

or

Fix short term

or

Fix long term

cheers,

Donna

[Jeffa]

If you had a loan coming off a 1yr fix in July - what would you do Jeffa?

Move to variable and wait for interest rates to drop

or

Fix short term

or

Fix long term

cheers,

Donna

I've got a few properties coming off the same time

I'm going 1year or the best available rate and increasing rents to recover what shortfall I can .

My mortgages aren't very large so everyone is different.

I have old credit lines sitting on each property which haven't been used so I may dip in to them to cover extra costs until rates do eventually come down as history shows that, but that could be some time in 2023 onwards.

[Jeffa]

Market not liking Putins decision to recognize 2 separatists controlled Ukraine regions, This enables Russia to put Russian peace keeping forces within the Eastern Ukraine.

Asian futures market have begun to sell off along with the NZX50.

Yes this is or will be tied to interest rates.

[Jeffa]

2 year NZ bond yields down on news Russian troops moving into Eastern Ukraine.

[JBM]

If you had a loan coming off a 1yr fix in July - what would you do Jeffa?

Move to variable and wait for interest rates to drop

or

Fix short term

or

Fix long term

cheers,

Donna

I'm in the same boat ... two loans coming of 1 Yr Fixed term 2.19%!!!!!!!! .... playing on paying them either completely off(I've been trading the ASX resources space making big $$$) or just re-fixed 6m-1yr as I think we will be forced to halt the major rising in rates going forward as far too many kiwis hit the wall and default