Interest Rates

[Dean@Massiveaction]

I am 100% certain they will either go up or down over time :-)

[WBuffett]

I am 100% certain they will either go up or down over time :-)

I disagree with the up or the down, I'm just not sure which, but I agree with the time, of that I am at least 75% certain, but I wouldn't bet on it, but if I was a betting man I might bet a dollar against it, or for it, depending on which side of the coin I toss.

[Dean@Massiveaction]

Better odds to be had with Ron's Blackjack Master Class Mr W.

[WBuffett]

Better odds to be had with Ron's Blackjack Master Class Mr W.

I'm hearing a lot about this blackjack class, I have not been to the free seminar so don't know a great deal about it, so it would be helpful if those who have done the full masterclass could comment on what the results were, were they happy with the presentation, the info given, what results the have had since the masterclass.
At the moment there is a lot of talk about it but no actual statistics which would be useful for those us considering either going to the free seminar, the longer weekend seminar or the full masterclass.

[Dean@Massiveaction]

This is from the online manual Buff

Sensei Ron "Ace in the Hole better than 2 queens in hand" Hoy Fong say:

Card Counting in Blackjack is one of only 2 winning game in the casino provided it is not on a CSM table.

To be MasterClass level you do not need a photographic memory

Your Spreads needs to at least 1:20

Your is game is best head on.

You will need to do the 51 count in less than 20 seconds

You will need to know the Basic strategy with out thinking.

You will need to know the Advanced Strategy

You will need to be accurate with Deck Estimation

You will need to know how to assess the True Count

You will need to play at least 1000 hr per annum ( max 4 - 5 hrs per session)

You will need to have a Bank Roll of at least 1000 time your minimum bet

You will need to know your betting spread at T0; T1; T2; T3; T4; T5;

You will need to know the different rules in each casino when it comes to splits, doubles, Bj take original bets only etc.

You will need to be Risk Adverse and have alot of patience.

You need to be Cool.

You will need to be aware that card counting in Blackjack is the only game in any Casino in the world that if caught using your skills that you will be banned or restricted

You will need to be aware that if you key in < B J > for Blackjack on your computor that you will get more that just Blackjack.

http://www.blackjack.org/card-counting/

[Viking]

Down. NZ exports are going up and up. World money will be looking for a safe haven (guarantees anyone) and it doesn't take much to push rates down.
Maari well on stream producing 50000 barrels a day along with Tui at 35000. The two most significant new export earners in years and more to come. Todds spudding more wells shortly, milk prices on the up and going to continue, logs prices going up and volumes growing to China, wine exports going up, Fruit exports going up, Kiwifruit will be well ahead this year, gold all sold and green filling the void, imports way down.
Balance of payments has to change.
Some things happening.
I see that P & O have had record bookings for cruises for the next season from NZ and Australia. Wonder why that is?

Unemploymentwill be around for a while but compare 6% here with 5% Aussie? and 11% USA and Britain ?
Still well off here and Aussie is going flat out again with minerals.
We just need to remove welfare incentives and lower the tax rates and we can all be well off.

[essence]

TSB cuts mortgage rates to new record low of 5.3pc

Sep 09, 2009

TSB Bank has lowered its 6 month fixed mortgage rate to 5.35 per cent from 5.50 per cent, effective September 10, 2009.

This change comes on the eve of the Reserve Bank review of its official cash rate, and its Monetary Policy Statement.

5.35 per cent is the lowest mortgage rate on offer in New Zealand at this time.

Short term fixed mortgage rates are lower now that at any time during the 2003-2004 so-called "mortgage war".

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10596248

http://www.interest.co.nz/mortgages.asp?100

[essence]

Westpac cuts mortgage rates

14/09/2009

westpac new zealand is cutting one of its variable home loan rates to 5.69 percent per annum and its six-month fixed rate to 5.29 percent.

The 5.69 percent variable rate is offered on its choices everyday home loan product and was previously 6.49 percent.

The standard variable home loan rate drops to 6.29 percent from 6.49 percent.

The six-month fixed home loan rate was previously 5.39 percent.

"these rates show that considerable benefits are flowing through to new zealanders at a key point in the economic cycle," westpac general manager of retail banking, bruce mclachlan, said.

The changes to the choices everyday, standard floating rate and six month fixed rate will take effect for new customers from tomorrow. Choices everyday and standard floating rate changes will take effect for existing customers on october 5.

[muppet]

BNZ have dropped their floating rate to 5.99%.

[muppet]

A prediction from Tony in his newsletter for this week.

We think the first tightening will come in July with a risk that the tightening will happen before then. This risk
arises because economic data continue to largely come out on the positive side – especially in the housing
market yet again this week. But one cannot ignore the unfortunate restraint which the early cyclical rise in
the NZ dollar will have on the export sector and therefore the overall economy, and of course not all of the
data releases are strong. We learnt this week for example that retail spending weakened in July.

[muppet]

If I Were a Borrower What Would I Do?
More and more people are thinking about where interest rates are going to be a couple of years from now,
given that the RB forecast rate rises further out and the likes of ourselves and other forecasters are
predicting the cash rate near 6% come late-2011. We think forecasting where the cash rate will be by then is
not really all that hard. That is because we are only thinking in terms of removing the current excessively
stimulatory level of the cash rate and returning it to a more neutral or normal level near 6%.
You may have noticed that we rarely speak about what happens after early 2012. That is because by then,
for rate movements above 6%, we are thinking in terms of the degree of restraint on economic growth and
inflation which the RB will need to be imposing. And this far out from that time as we exit the most uncertain
economic conditions we have seen around the planet in decades, it is impossible to reasonably pick what
monetary policy will need to be doing over 2012-14.
And that creates a big forecasting problem – not so much for the cash rate over 2012 etc, but for fixed rates
over 2011. This is because fixed rates tend to reflect expectations of where floating rates will sit over the
relevant period of time for the fixed rate. (Note though that cash availability at different terms also
determines fixed rates.). But if we can’t even seriously guess how much the cash rate will rise over 2012-14
then we cannot really generate a believable forecast for where fixed interest rates will be.
Therefore, if you are planning some canny interest rate risk management policy based on floating for a while
perhaps, fixing to late 2011, then fixing again, please realise that you cannot reasonably pick what your
refixing rate will be then. That lack of forecasting insight will dissipate over 2010 as we get closer to late-
2011 and learn more about the true strength of economic recoveries here and overseas and the speed with
which spare resources get used up.
And if one had to take a punt on where fixed rates will be come late-2011 what would one personally pick?
Higher than they are now by at least 1% for terms of three years and beyond – but without any serious
analysis able to back up that expectation.
And a final thought for those people enjoying the lovely low floating rates at the moment. Over the past ten
years the floating mortgage rate in New Zealand has averaged 8.5% and over the past five years 9.3%.
hence our warning that come late-2011 when the official cash rate is returned to somewhere near a normal
6%, floating rates will also go back to something close to a normal 8.5%. More than that?
Upside risk to floating rates further out comes from tighter credit conditions delivering higher average funding
costs to banks therefore presumably higher average lending rates. But the Reserve Bank sets the official
cash rate aiming for a certain degree of influence over bank lending rates. If the tightening of credit means
bank borrowing costs are higher for any given level of the cash rate then they will not need to take it so high
to get the restraint they need. Maybe that implies a 5.5% cash rate average going forward – though with
floating mortgage rates still averaging 8.5%.
Downside risk to rates further out however comes from the shock to people’s finances recently which may
curb debt enthusiasm, the already high level of house prices compared with incomes, and the high level of
debt compared with household incomes.
In other words we again repeat our warning that developing a canny interest rate risk management strategy
based on forecasts of where interest rates will be a couple of years from now is a highly uncertain exercise.
And that is why if I were borrowing at the moment I would still personally want to have a portion of my debt
fixed. I would also use the period of low floating rates to keep monthly payments up and get my debt burden
down.

[muppet]

Caution urged on mortgage rate drop

4:00AM Friday Sep 18, 2009
By Debrin Foxcroft

Top economists are warning potential home buyers to proceed with caution as another bank drops its variable mortgage rate to the lowest in 40 years.
BNZ announced yesterday a 0.26 drop in its TotalMoney variable housing rate, making it the lowest variable home loan rate available in the market at 5.59 per cent. This comes one week after rival ASB Bank dropped its floating rate to 5.75 per cent and just days after Westpac dropped its floating rate to 5.69 per cent.
But before potential home buyers rush out to purchase a new home, economists are warning the low rates won't last.
Massey University banking studies lecturer Clair Matthews says borrowers need to consider if they can afford their mortgage at a higher rate before they take advantage of what is on offer now.
"I wouldn't want people to go out and borrow money that they wouldn't have borrowed otherwise," she says.
"The variable rate is at a record low and we have to expect that it will go back up."
Mrs Matthews says the upward shift may not happen in the next few weeks.
"But it is a matter of months rather then years."
This view is supported by Shamubeel Eaqub, a senior economist with the New Zealand Institute for Economic Research.
"When we look down two or three years, we expect levels to go higher, to reach a more normal level."
Mr Eaqub says home buyers should expect the floating rate to return to around 7 per cent.
He says the announcements from the two banks reflect a little bit of competition to get new customers.
"I don't think we will see the mortgage rate wars of 2004 and 2006. The conditions are different and I'm not sure there is the same demand."
Mr Eaqub says the fragile labour market and reduced access to credit means this will be a niggle rather then a full-blown competition between banks.
Chris Bayliss, director of retail at BNZ, points out the most recent cut is part of an ongoing trend.
"Over the past year we've reduced our variable loan rates by 4.90 per cent to ensure that we offer New Zealanders competitive rates which will enable them to reduce the principle on their loan at a quicker rate."
ASB retail banking chief executive Ian Park says he doesn't believe we are seeing a return of the mortgage rate wars of the past.
"We have always said when the cost of funds reduces we will pass that on to our customers. We fund off short-term funding rates as well as onshore and offshore funding rates. These have come down recently and so we have passed on the saving. We have been consistent."

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10598061

[Viking]

We are moving to a phase that we have not had in NZ for a long time. Low interest rates. The rest of the world has had them for 15 years while ours remained high. That's now changing because we are again moving rapidly to an export orientation.
We are also near self sufficient in petroleum based products on balance between export and import so we now have a natural hedge around oil prices.
Don't be surprised to see rates remain down.

[Austrokiwi]

We are also near self sufficient in petroleum based products on balance between export and import so we now have a natural hedge around oil prices.
Don't be surprised to see rates remain down.

Near self sufficient?...........the oil found in NZ is of a type that can't be refined in NZ so it is exported. That said where did you get your info from?

[speights boy]

IMHO, the banks are just playing the long game here.

When rates are rising in 12 months time, people will move towards the old favorite of 2 year fixed.
Due to inertia a lot of them will just stay at the same bank.

Unfortunately, there appears to be a number of new investors and home buyers out there who are failing to budget for higher interest rates, job loss or the spouse not working.

SB