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  • A reminder

    Past Performance Is Not Indicative Of Future Results

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    • Going be some really painful refinances going on at present ... I heard of one Queenstown rental going from $900pw to $1500pw ...purely as the landlords interest costs have exploded imagine locking in 2.5% etc thats now coming off to being told your looking at 6% to 7% maybe much higher within months ... next year we will have many of those low 2yrs fixed coming off... and some Interest only being forced to be P.I ... I had that mid last year after many years of rolling over 1yr fixed I.O ..

      the higher inflated costs = pain is going cause one hell off a melt down in NZ property IMHO

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Frezzinghot

        Or they change tack and drop em. Do they really want mass bankruptcy, maybe, maybe not. Next year is going to be one hell of a ride
        I think they do want the masses of debt laden kiwis to suffer .. businesses to close ...I'm not seeing much sense from GOVT ...as to why business confidence has stayed at record lows pre COVID and present.. I think they will continue to hike till we see a collapse in sales and building consents .. home builders+developers as usually will be first ...
        then I don't think we will see rates fall massively more like a flatline 5% etc...

        Stupid thing pumping rates up fast also adds to higher CPI as those landlords + businesses pass on the higher leading costs ..so really its like throwing fuel on the fire till it all burns down>>

        How moving rates from 2% levels to 6-7%+ is going lower shipping costs or increasing Energy investment ....Food production I can only think it will be from the many going broke and living under bridges more third world living standards etc
        Last edited by JBM; 30-10-2022, 10:26 PM.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by JBM View Post

          I think they do want the masses of debt laden kiwis to suffer .. businesses to close ...I'm not seeing much sense from GOVT ...as to why business confidence has stayed at record lows pre COVID and present.. I think they will continue to hike till we see a collapse in sales and building consents .. home builders+developers as usually will be first ...
          then I don't think we will see rates fall massively more like a flatline 5% etc...

          Stupid thing pumping rates up fast also adds to higher CPI as those landlords + businesses pass on the higher leading costs ..so really its like throwing fuel on the fire till it all burns down>>

          How moving rates from 2% levels to 6-7%+ is going lower shipping costs or increasing Energy investment ....Food production I can only think it will be from the many going broke and living under bridges more third world living standards etc
          That's one way of looking at it.

          Who knows, it might be spot on.

          Although it seems unlikely any sane organization would cause harm just for the fun of it.

          Inflation is a real worry for the world.

          Many think that the second world war would not have been able to gain support were it not for the crippling inflation of the time.

          With people like TRUMP just waiting for a crack to lever into personal power and advantage.. you have to be very very careful.

          The word TRIAGE comes to mind when considering how central banks are dealing with inflation.

          It's a medical practice , and it seems to fit the Central banks/Govt unified approach to the specter of runaway inflation..

          Yes they caused it all by dumping way too much cash into the system for waaaaaaaayyy to long ( I did tell you at the time, but you went on Xmas break instead. well I hope the denial holiday was worth it.. seriously.. did you not know it would be a huge problem once the beach togs had long since been put away and you were back in you stuffy old ties and stiff shirts.. but I digress.

          Anyho, now it has to be fixed..

          Comment


          • Originally posted by JBM View Post
            Going be some really painful refinances going on at present ... I heard of one Queenstown rental going from $900pw to $1500pw ...purely as the landlords interest costs have exploded imagine locking in 2.5% etc thats now coming off to being told your looking at 6% to 7% maybe much higher within months ... next year we will have many of those low 2yrs fixed coming off... and some Interest only being forced to be P.I ... I had that mid last year after many years of rolling over 1yr fixed I.O ..

            the higher inflated costs = pain is going cause one hell off a melt down in NZ property IMHO
            Agree, Yes SHTF big time.

            Like I have already said, I watched these people falling over themselves and frothing at the mouth paying insane prices just shaking my head. We always knew the piper would need to be paid.
            I think the true panic selling begins 2023

            Comment


            • Originally posted by chook View Post

              Agree, Yes SHTF big time.

              Like I have already said, I watched these people falling over themselves and frothing at the mouth paying insane prices just shaking my head. We always knew the piper would need to be paid.
              I think the true panic selling begins 2023
              I think you have to look at the full picture as well. Landlords who bought before 2020 should be ok, the frenzy really started when the plandemic started. Lots of lending going on, I remember going from lending of 1m to 0, if I had bought at that time I probably would have paid too much, such was the competition at the time. I remember Rotorua going for crazy money. All in the space of 3 months. I refixed a couple of months ago and it’s doubled, however my rents have increased as well, so all things being equal some of the rates are being eaten by rent increases.

              yes there is going to be pain but I would say by those who stupidly bought when prices were rising over the last 2 years.
              "DEBT BECOMES IRRELEVANT WITH INFLATION".

              Comment


              • 2 year bond rate pricing in OCR to pause at 4.25 (3.5 now)
                Next OCR decision could be .50 and .25 in February then pause or/

                .75 then pause

                or/

                .50 then pause,

                Either way bond market pricing in rates to pause over the next 3 months following Nov or February ocr decision as market forcasting inflation is falling or , in some quarters including myself falling fast or dead ,following US cpi big miss of 7.7 vs consensus forcasting of 8 cpi ,although not showing up in the print yet. (Data is lagging 12 to 24 months)
                If Orr wants to save face from his last fk up, he needs listen to what the markets saying.

                Comment


                • Don't forget that comrade commissar Cindy's socio-commie gummint is facing an election next year and will be desperate for some good news. (Might be a bit of nudge, wink, quietly going on.)

                  Plus - given the recent election results in USA. - it goes to show how far wrong the polls and pundits can be.
                  Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Perry View Post
                    Don't forget that comrade commissar Cindy's socio-commie gummint is facing an election next year and will be desperate for some good news. (Might be a bit of nudge, wink, quietly going on.)

                    Plus - given the recent election results in USA. - it goes to show how far wrong the polls and pundits can be.
                    It's all those annoying deplorables being able to vote that's the problem.
                    Just wait for Dr Cindys "reforms" to fix it.
                    The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates and a monthly salary - Fred Wilson.

                    Comment


                    • Is it a matter of swings and roundabouts?

                      A cartoon from not-that-long-ago.

                      Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Perry View Post
                        Is it a matter of swings and roundabouts?

                        A cartoon from not-that-long-ago.

                        Yes its great getting 5% return and having dry powder for the avalanche of bargains that will hit the market 2023 - 24....

                        Comment


                        • Sir John key ...10% interest rate next year
                          https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.new...-2023.amp.html

                          Comment


                          • John Key:

                            Eventually, builders are just going to say… 'OK, I can produce this house for X, I can't sell it for Y, therefore I just won't build it.' I think what you'll see over the next 12 months is the freeze frame in terms of building and new supply coming on the market.

                            Unless the RBNZ start printing money again. Problem solved.
                            "DEBT BECOMES IRRELEVANT WITH INFLATION".

                            Comment


                            • I have no optimism about any dubious prognostication from Shonkey.

                              But new-build price increases are very real.

                              In '19 and '20, I bought three self-contained / cabin sleepouts. 26 square meters space total floor area, between them
                              .
                              Historical cost: $92,080

                              Current replacement cost: $259,597.

                              Because they were purchased in two different years, that's an averaged 282% increase since then. Ouch!

                              Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Perry View Post
                                I have no optimism about any dubious prognostication from Shonkey.

                                But new-build price increases are very real.

                                In '19 and '20, I bought three self-contained / cabin sleepouts. 26 square meters space total floor area, between them
                                .
                                Historical cost: $92,080

                                Current replacement cost: $259,597.

                                Because they were purchased in two different years, that's an averaged 282% increase since then. Ouch!
                                Yes NZD to Peso hasn't held its value to well since the looney lefties took over and blew up the balance sheet ...

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                                RBNZ balance sheet >>>>> talk about tick it up ????? and the drop kick Orr blames average Kiwis for inflation ...??? really the ultra low rates or mass money printing ZZZzzzzz ????


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                                Last edited by JBM; 22-12-2022, 03:26 PM.

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