Header Ad Module

Collapse

Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Interest Rates

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Originally posted by chook View Post

    Nope make that 5% ++
    And going higher... think we will see 6%to 7% being the lowest rate before they stop the rocketing rate to flatline and cut as NZ property employment starts to fall apart

    Comment


    • Originally posted by JBM View Post
      . . . as NZ property employment starts to fall apart.
      Put that another way, please. As in, what's "property employment?"

      Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Perry View Post
        Put that another way, please. As in, what's "property employment?"
        Those employed directly or even indirectly by the NZ Property sector-- RE Agents ,Valuers , tradies , Homes sellers, etc ....sorry

        Comment


        • Originally posted by JBM View Post
          Those employed directly or even indirectly by the NZ Property sector-- RE Agents ,Valuers , tradies , Homes sellers, etc ....sorry
          Are they numerically significant, though?

          Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Perry View Post
            Are they numerically significant, though?
            Property is New Zealand’s largest industry, contributing $41.2 billion a year to gross domestic product (GDP), or 15 per cent, the Property Council says.

            the industry is the fourth-largest employer in the country, accounting for 9 per cent of total employment.

            https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125...ry-report-says

            Comment


            • Originally posted by JBM View Post
              Property is New Zealand’s largest industry, contributing $41.2 billion a year to gross domestic product (GDP), or 15 per cent, the Property Council says.

              the industry is the fourth-largest employer in the country, accounting for 9 per cent of total employment.

              https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125...ry-report-says
              Anything that comes from STUFFed is suspect. The PC may be of a similar ilk.

              Is it reasonable to regard rent [commercial or residential] as a realistic contributor to GDP?

              I suspect not.

              To illustrate [somewhat facetious], if I agree to mow my neighbour's lawn for $20 and she agrees to mow mine for the same amount, GDP has increased by $40 but productivity has increased by zero.

              R & M spin-off aspects to PI, I understand. Even property management fees. But . . .

              . . . is not the ascribed dollar value simply a shift from one pocket to another?
              Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

              Comment


              • I agree with Perry.

                GDP is basically a measure of activity.
                How much of that activity is useless?

                If there was just one single house and it was sold once every second for a million dollars..
                then you would get a high GDP.

                Was it actually useful?

                I guess the auctioneer would say yes.
                A sensible observer would say no.
                And see though the auctioneers GDP justification immediately.

                What is the main objective of a housing industry?
                How well does it achieve that objective?
                That's the primary measure of it's success.

                Always be on the guard for near-do-wells subverting a practical thing into a nonsense, for their own personal gain.
                Last edited by McDuck; 16-07-2022, 07:25 AM.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by McDuck View Post
                  I agree with Perry.

                  GDP is basically a measure of activity.
                  How much of that activity is useless?

                  If there was just one single house and it was sold once every second for a million dollars..
                  then you would get a high GDP.

                  Was it actually useful?

                  I guess the auctioneer would say yes.
                  A sensible observer would say no.
                  And see though the auctioneers GDP justification immediately.

                  What is the main objective of a housing industry?
                  How well does it achieve that objective?
                  That's the primary measure of it's success.

                  Always be on the guard for near-do-wells subverting a practical thing into a nonsense, for their own personal gain.
                  I agree in part ...productively of our country is far better served from primary GDP ...the farming, fishing, forestry, mining, manufacturing , construction etc

                  than kiwis trading homes ..but I'm sure if this was to slow down 50% etc .. the explosion in RE agents ,valuators ,Legal services, building inspectors, morg brokers ,home movers, advertisers would be noticeable effected..

                  I'm sure if lending Rates continue to spike many tied into the property sector will be affected .. then of course you have the downstream sentiment effects if we see a bear market in NZ property ... Kiwis won't be so keen to tic up new retail items ..like they have been for decades

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by JBM View Post

                    I agree in part ...productively of our country is far better served from primary GDP ...the farming, fishing, forestry, mining, manufacturing , construction etc

                    than kiwis trading homes ..but I'm sure if this was to slow down 50% etc .. the explosion in RE agents ,valuators ,Legal services, building inspectors, morg brokers ,home movers, advertisers would be noticeable effected..

                    I'm sure if lending Rates continue to spike many tied into the property sector will be affected .. then of course you have the downstream sentiment effects if we see a bear market in NZ property ... Kiwis won't be so keen to tic up new retail items ..like they have been for decades
                    Sure.
                    It's a balance.

                    All of the occupations you mentioned have a place in a working economic model.
                    It's a matter of proportion.
                    Once any sector gets so big that it destroys other sectors, or threatens the integrity of the overall system, it needs to be looked at.
                    Last edited by McDuck; 18-07-2022, 07:33 AM.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by JBM View Post
                      And going higher... think we will see 6%to 7% being the lowest rate before they stop the rocketing rate to flatline and cut as NZ property employment starts to fall apart
                      Originally posted by Perry View Post
                      Put that another way, please. As in, what's "property employment?"
                      Originally posted by JBM View Post
                      Those employed directly or even indirectly by the NZ Property sector-- RE Agents ,Valuers , tradies , Homes sellers, etc ....sorry
                      Originally posted by Perry View Post
                      Are they numerically significant, though?

                      As article https://www.landlords.co.nz/article/...o-end-in-sight suggests that the sector is numerically significant.


                      “Building and construction is a significant contributor to the national economy so its performance matters. It’s currently the third largest contributor to GDP, some $20 billion per annum and sustaining over 540,000 jobs.

                      With 95% of building firms employing 10 staff or less, our workforce is deeply embedded in their communities right across our cities and regions. They are responsible for building homes, schools, and hospitals.”


                      But, proportionally to McDucks question – if the sector accounts for $20 billion per annum that represents about 8% of GDP based on 2021 GDP data.

                      Worker wise – if the sector sustains 540,000 jobs, that represents about 20% of NZ’s “employed persons” based in year end 2021 data from Stats NZ.

                      Hmm. Productivity? And should that matter when we are discussing shelter?
                      Last edited by Sanya; 23-07-2022, 02:16 PM.

                      Comment


                      • I didn't view JBM's clarification as including the construction sector. Perhaps I got that wrong? Rather, I saw his list being mainly inclusive of the post-construction group of people and businessrs widely involved in existing property management / maintenance / sales, etc., in one way or another.
                        Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Perry View Post
                          I didn't view JBM's clarification as including the construction sector. Perhaps I got that wrong? Rather, I saw his list being mainly inclusive of the post-construction group of people and businessrs widely involved in existing property management / maintenance / sales, etc., in one way or another.
                          Fair enough Perry.

                          The numbers are all over the show anyway.

                          Comment


                          • Update for future researchers.. 30 August 2022.

                            Covid still runs free across the globe,
                            although we have gotten used to the daily infection and death reports.
                            Vaccines have been developed and deployed.
                            The consensus is the we can't beat it, so we'll just have to live with it and get on with things.

                            We find ourselves in the middle of a series of interest rate hikes.
                            With each hike being aggressive, by past standards anyway.

                            Many central banks around the world find inflation has jumped outside the 2% target.
                            Some say this is due to the Central Banks and Governments money printing.
                            Others to supply chain issues.
                            It's possibly a mismatching of one to the other.

                            The language of the stock market is now being used in banking.
                            With the word "bullish" to describe the mood of the present reserve bank governors.
                            Which is apt, as the excess money has been finding its way into the stock market,
                            crypto currency,
                            housing, and many other things.
                            Creating a generation of young people who expect everything to go up.

                            Many homeowners have had significant paper gains in the past three years,
                            With houses prices increasing an unheard of 30%.
                            That translated to about $300 thousand as an average.
                            ( Although there are signs of a slight retraction of late).

                            For many, the afterglow of being able to skite about being a millionaire around the barbecue has faded
                            and the reality of increasing Insurance and council rates has set in.

                            The present RBNZ governor, Mr Orr, has indicated that more rate rises are to come.

                            Having been used to a decade of more of low interest rates,
                            rising house prices
                            and an upward stock market..
                            people are skeptical.

                            It's an odd catch 22 standoff, with the sceptics almost sealing their own fate.

                            Even the US FED have come out as bullish this week.

                            https://www.imdb.com/video/vi2850865...&ref_=tt_ov_vi
                            Last edited by McDuck; 30-08-2022, 07:40 AM.

                            Comment





                            • Click image for larger version

Name:	Screen Shot 2022-09-15 at 9.23.21 PM.png
Views:	157
Size:	183.1 KB
ID:	731837

                              BUBBLE time NZ one for the history books

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by JBM View Post


                                Click image for larger version

Name:	Screen Shot 2022-09-15 at 9.23.21 PM.png
Views:	157
Size:	183.1 KB
ID:	731837

                                BUBBLE time NZ one for the history books
                                Excellent graphs, puts it in perspective, Canadas housing market has been out of control last few years and just shows NZ housing is way out of control.

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X