Interest Rates

[donna]

GRA have a webinar on tonight - Tax changes and Property Market Update - 7 pm - https://www.gra.co.nz/events/tax-cha...update-webinar

or register here https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...SnOckzjwwBLftg

cheers,

Donna

[JBM]

Just checking what I would be looking at to fix for 1yr at present is around 60% higher than what I fixed @ 2.19% back in JULY !!!!! thats NUTS

[Perry]

ASB cuts two-year home loan interest rate
07 Dec 2021

ASB has dropped its two-year fixed home loan rate from 4.35 per cent to 4.15 per cent. The bank said it followed a drop in its funding costs as a result of moves on money markets.

How many weeks ago was it that the banks were falling over themselves to increase rates?

[McDuck]

ASB cuts two-year home loan interest rate
07 Dec 2021

How many weeks ago was it that the banks were falling over themselves to increase rates?

First to flinch?

Not sure what to make of that.

Would they be willing to accept a narrower margin to increase or hold market share.

Does this mean they think loan requests are going to dry up in the coming months?

Can you pump a market if no one can afford to be in it anymore?

What are the numbers.

Say a $1000,000 loan, interest only (most optimistic scenario).

Annual interest at 4.35% = $43.500 pa.

and their bait is a 4.15% reduction. = $41.500.

So a $2000 sweetener to stay?

Of course that's just interest only.

Reality is much more challenging.

[Perry]

According to some informal news just received, (15/12/21), RBNZ governor warns inflation is now - or will soon be - in excess of 5% and the OCR must rise to above a "neutral" rate. Whatever that may mean.

[Jeffa]

According to some informal news just received, (15/12/21), RBNZ governor warns inflation is now - or will soon be - in excess of 5% and the OCR must rise to above a "neutral" rate. Whatever that may mean.

Neutral rate will be slightly above 2%

2y bond yields being forward looking seem to already have already been priced in.
Xmas is next week and shops look to be down on compacity compared to the past decade, the economy is slowing , RBNZ and retail bank's need to be careful with the liquidity squeeze or the NZ economy will fall off a cliff.

Inflation will likely peak this quarter and deflation will begin in 2022.

Those who are concerned about interest need not, they will begin to retreat on the longer term rates next year.

Depending on the government elected in 2023

Once the borders open up fully, population growth will attract skilled immigrants driving down labour costs.

Technology/Automation will continue to advance as has been the last several decades, this will all be deflationary.

The CPI will lower forcing interest rates down, pushing up asset prices like property.

Not many in media report this, as in my predictions in February 2020 I'm year's ahead of anyone else.


I would love to share my opinions more often, unfortunately troll's on this forum love shouting me down.

It's no wonder nobody post's on here anymore.


https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zea...ear-note-yield

[Jeffa]

I'll add with inflation running at ~5% real rates are negative .

Until inflation returns to 2% real rates which are calculated as deposits return a negative yield with inflation at 5%.

The best term deposit is 3% which means after inflation your return is negative -2%.. interest rates are negative
As I predicted...

They can't manipulate land in good locations, with house prices predicted to fall next year, there will never be a better time to start growing your wealth.

Unfortunately the forced credit crunch is in play on purpose to keep the wealth gap wide.

[Frezzinghot]

I'll add with inflation running at ~5% real rates are negative .

Until inflation returns to 2% real rates which are calculated as deposits return a negative yield with inflation at 5%.

The best term deposit is 3% which means after inflation your return is negative -2%.. interest rates are negative
As I predicted...

They can't manipulate land in good locations, with house prices predicted to fall next year, there will never be a better time to start growing your wealth.

Unfortunately the forced credit crunch is in play on purpose to keep the wealth gap wide.

Yes the credit crunch will hold many back as the banks start to get anal!

[Frezzinghot]

Yes the credit crunch will hold many back as the banks start to get anal!

Im hearing some FHBers having a mil a couple of months ago only having 800k for their first home now.

[Jeffa]

Yes the credit crunch will hold many back as the banks start to get anal!

In early 2020 I predicted that lending would only be available to the wealthy few
It's a hidden agenda with communist undertones to have everyone mediocre and a averagely poor middle class.

The current lie from treasury saying how well our economy is doing and trumpeted by Grant Robinson and the Labour party fail to explain its fake and comes from the RBNZ and billions printed money .

[chook]

In early 2020 I predicted that lending would only be available to the wealthy few
It's a hidden agenda with communist undertones to have everyone mediocre and a averagely poor middle class.

The current lie from treasury saying how well our economy is doing and trumpeted by Grant Robinson and the Labour party fail to explain its fake and comes from the RBNZ and billions printed money .

Yes One BIG lie that the disciples believe every word of it, wow there are a lot of stupid people about.

These same people will be bleating when this amazing fantasy world the Govt has painted doesnt transpire.

[Perry]

In early 2020 I predicted that lending would only be available to the wealthy few. It's a hidden agenda with communist undertones, to have everyone mediocre and an averagely poor middle class.

That later notion is one I agree with. The more on social welfare - the better, from comrade commissar Cindy's perspective, anyway.
(Don't vote against the political party government that feeds you. And houses and clothes you, too.)

The current lie from treasury saying how well our economy is doing and trumpeted by Grant Robinson and the Labour party. What they fail to explain is that it's fake and comes from the RBNZ and billions printed money.

How well the NZ economy is doing is likely to indeed be all smoke and mirrors.

However, the 'money' does not come from the RBNZ. It comes from foreign investment via government bonds.

NZ currency printing is done at a Mint in Australia. That aside, no money is being printed. It is an expansion of credit, with the 'backing' of those foreign bonds 'money' influx to the NZ economy. I don't know how involved the RBNZ is in that process. It is my understanding that government bonds are managed by Treasury, not the RBNZ.

[Perry]

Hhhmmmm . . .

Wonder what this will do to interest rates and the hallucinations of the crystal-ball-gazers?

GDP fell 3.7% in last quarter, much less than expected
Dec 16 2021

The economy shrank 3.7 per cent during the three months to the end of September as a result of restrictions imposed from August to combat the Delta outbreak, Stats NZ has reported. The fall is the second-largest on record, which is since Stats NZ began collating GDP figures in their current form in 1986, but is still much less than expected by most analysts.

Footnote
Anal-ysts / econ-o-mists = crystal-ball-gazers

[Jeffa]

Not quite the correct thread but will affect interest rates none the less.

I follow several US Wall Street analyst who control hundreds of millions if not billions of capital so have skin in the game.

I'm over the coronavirus virus debate however , some of these Wall Street analyst are saying the Omicron variant is highly contagious but possibly the last variant strain, and if you haven't been infected or touched by covid you eventually will be.

This over protective approach is delaying the inevitable, and will continue to slow the economy in the new year.

While the rest of the world is getting on with life we seem to be stuck in March 2020/and we are the most highly vaccinated country in the world??

If interest rates continue to rise in a declining economy, the RBNZ will have to reconsider it's direction on forward guidance.

[Frezzinghot]

Not quite the correct thread but will affect interest rates none the less.

I follow several US Wall Street analyst who control hundreds of millions if not billions of capital so have skin in the game.

I'm over the coronavirus virus debate however , some of these Wall Street analyst are saying the Omicron variant is highly contagious but possibly the last variant strain, and if you haven't been infected or touched by covid you eventually will be.

This over protective approach is delaying the inevitable, and will continue to slow the economy in the new year.

While the rest of the world is getting on with life we seem to be stuck in March 2020/and we are the most highly vaccinated country in the world??

If interest rates continue to rise in a declining economy, the RBNZ will have to reconsider it's direction on forward guidance.

The signs of spending this xmas are everywhere that Aucklanders in the main would rather spend their money on trips away out of Auckland than in some stuffy mall asking for some vaccine passport.