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  • If there's no upward change, we then watch the melee amongst the Oz banks as they proffer 10001 excuses and back-track on all their dire and dubious prognostications. Interesting times.
    Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

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    • Kiwis just get ripped off left right and centre. Don't go looking for comparable rates offshore all you're going to find is rates so much cheaper.

      In the UK fix until 8/23 (HSBC UK) 0.94%

      In the USA it's even more impressive as they fix for 15 - 30 years - rates are as low as 1.87% for 15 years - now that's what you call certainty.

      In Australia - also better for your lending - fix for 3 years with Macquarie 2.09%, Westpac 1.99 2yr fixed. Main banks in Aus. variable rate 2.69% but in NZ starts at 4.44%.

      cheers,

      Donna


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      • Originally posted by donna View Post
        Kiwis just get ripped off left right and centre. Don't go looking for comparable rates offshore all you're going to find is rates so much cheaper.

        In the UK fix until 8/23 (HSBC UK) 0.94%

        In the USA it's even more impressive as they fix for 15 - 30 years - rates are as low as 1.87% for 15 years - now that's what you call certainty.

        In Australia - also better for your lending - fix for 3 years with Macquarie 2.09%, Westpac 1.99 2yr fixed. Main banks in Aus. variable rate 2.69% but in NZ starts at 4.44%.

        cheers,

        Donna

        Yep, add food, petrol, rates, clothing....Wages stagnant.
        "DEBT BECOMES IRRELEVANT WITH INFLATION".

        Comment


        • Originally posted by donna View Post
          Kiwis just get ripped off left right and centre. Don't go looking for comparable rates offshore all you're going to find is rates so much cheaper.

          In the UK fix until 8/23 (HSBC UK) 0.94%
          There are many drivers to the cost of credit - all countries are not equal with respect to risk.
          If you were an overseas lender (all the mortgage money does not come from within the country) would you rather lend to Europe, US or NZ? Think credit risk and exchange rate risk.

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          • Australian inflation 3.8%

            Reserve Bank of Australian seeing through inflation and keeping OCR at 0.1%

            Delta variant shutting NSW down, OZ economy retracting.

            This indirectly affects NZ..I don't envy the RBNZ job to make a call on our OCR.

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            • Originally posted by Jeffa View Post
              Australian inflation 3.8%

              Reserve Bank of Australian seeing through inflation and keeping OCR at 0.1%

              Delta variant shutting NSW down, OZ economy retracting.

              This indirectly affects NZ..I don't envy the RBNZ job to make a call on our OCR.
              What is your thoughts on the OCR next month? Up/down. I’m going to an auction tonight so be nice if they kept the rates low for me.
              "DEBT BECOMES IRRELEVANT WITH INFLATION".

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              • Originally posted by Frezzinghot View Post

                What is your thoughts on the OCR next month? Up/down. I’m going to an auction tonight so be nice if they kept the rates low for me.
                -I have posted in detail why they shouldn't raise the OCR on this thread.

                -Adrian Orr was the biggest share market trader in NZ during the global financial crisis.

                -Orr did exactly what I did a decade ago and bought destressed assets/shares following and during the GFC.

                -Orr made the correct decision to be first in the world to drop the OCR as I predicted in February on this forum in 2020.

                None of this matters if he gets political interference from a left wing finance minister pandering to mainstream media and non home owners.(or Marxist home owners)
                Last edited by Jeffa; 28-07-2021, 05:44 PM.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Frezzinghot View Post

                  What is your thoughts on the OCR next month? Up/down. I’m going to an auction tonight so be nice if they kept the rates low for me.
                  -US 10Y still falling
                  ​​​​​​-NZ 10Y still falling on headline inflation

                  -NZD declined on headline inflation news

                  -Delta breaking out world wide

                  -No other Central Bank even talking about raising OCR

                  All these say no OCR increase.. Unless political pressure due to stupidity pushes for an OCR increase.

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                  • Hi All,

                    Looking for some advice, we pretty much have all our lending coming off in the next few months, its a sizeable amount, our lender tells me the short term rate of 2.19 will probably go up at the end of this week! Question is go short or go longer, Im leaning towards short term as we may want to shift banks within the year and don't want to be left with a big break cost should we need to shift.

                    Some tough decisions to be made.
                    "DEBT BECOMES IRRELEVANT WITH INFLATION".

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Jeffa View Post

                      -US 10Y still falling
                      ​​​​​​-NZ 10Y still falling on headline inflation

                      -NZD declined on headline inflation news

                      -Delta breaking out world wide

                      -No other Central Bank even talking about raising OCR

                      All these say no OCR increase.. Unless political pressure due to stupidity pushes for an OCR increase.
                      I would say if it increased significantly those who have jumped in donkey deep in the last 5 years could get stung, that includes FHBs, I heard recently that over 40% of Auckland buyers borrowed 1mil plus to secure there piece of paradise in Auckland in the last 12 months!
                      "DEBT BECOMES IRRELEVANT WITH INFLATION".

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                      • What are people being offered right now? Best coming through from ASB is

                        6 months 3.19
                        12 months 2.45
                        18 months 2.69
                        24 months 2.85
                        36 months 3.19
                        48 months 3.49
                        60 months 3.79

                        Big loans, 2 thirds come off end of August and remaining third end of September, thoughts?

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Frezzinghot View Post

                          I would say if it increased significantly those who have jumped in donkey deep in the last 5 years could get stung, that includes FHBs, I heard recently that over 40% of Auckland buyers borrowed 1mil plus to secure there piece of paradise in Auckland in the last 12 months!
                          You got it, but replace Auckland with NZ buyers, plenty will lose their shirts.

                          Comment


                          • Our policy over the last 20 years around interest rates was essentially not to go broke by fixing long. Because rates were dropping it Turns out that it was the worst thing to do in hindsight. Going back to the drawing board, whatever we choose it will probably be a cock up.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Frezzinghot View Post
                              Hi All,

                              Looking for some advice, we pretty much have all our lending coming off in the next few months, its a sizeable amount, our lender tells me the short term rate of 2.19 will probably go up at the end of this week! Question is go short or go longer, Im leaning towards short term as we may want to shift banks within the year and don't want to be left with a big break cost should we need to shift.

                              Some tough decisions to be made.
                              Interest rates don't matter

                              Interest rates effect the macro economy

                              Having cashflow, access to liquidity and a large redraw facility overrides higher interest rates and regulation costs.

                              The macro economy dictates policy and lending criteria.

                              If interest rates go up, there is less likely to be more regulations on property/landlords and lending as the market slows or stall's .

                              It's also the time you should be building your portfolio.. which is the difference between the professional investor and the sheep.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Engineer View Post
                                Our policy over the last 20 years around interest rates was essentially not to go broke by fixing long. Because rates were dropping it Turns out that it was the worst thing to do in hindsight. Going back to the drawing board, whatever we choose it will probably be a cock up.
                                Maybe not the best decision in recent years, but the fact you've stuck with the game is very positive.

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