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  • Two years later - from April 2019.
    Originally posted by GLin View Post
    It's a signal the whole economy is going down south. Expect redundancies from NZ companies to accelerate.

    Originally posted by Perry View Post
    When do you expect that to happen? (Prediction noted)

    Originally posted by GLin View Post
    I say within 12 months or so.
    How do PT Forumites see such things now, I wonder?
    Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

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    • ^^ Aren’t we in a recession and probably it will be a double dip plus there’s a lack of reporting on it IMHO. Not interesting enough - LL bashing is far more newsworthy.

      I’d say banks need to entice customers to leave their $$ in savings so an interest rate increase is required.

      cheers

      Donna

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      • Tis a topsy-turvy world.
        Posted 22-11-2018
        Originally posted by BlueSky View Post
        Normally 10 years in NZ economic cycle. But who knows, we might continue kicking the can a few more years. I think the way things are going we will be in recession next year by second quarter.
        • 2008 Global financial crisis (11.8 percent loss in GDP)
        • 1998 Recession
        • 1987 Stock Market crash
        • Recession (12.8 percent loss in GDP)
        • 1968 Recession
        Posted 2-08-2019
        Originally posted by JBM View Post

        well I think we could well see rates force upwards on bond issues esp around countries with high household debt to GDP like NZ with clueless Govt. not helping .....I see rates being forced upwards from late 2020 IMHO .. and yes you could come off a 5yr right into higher rates but then you should have saved a good chunk over the previous years
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        • Interest rate trap happening right now , lots have already missed the boat, banks are cunning how they implement it, seen it many times.

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          • Though interest rates not forecasted to move upwards for many months i.e. May 2022 and OCR up 25 basis points and as much as 150 basis points by 2024 (but that's quite far out).

            Am I missing something chook?

            cheers,

            Donna


            ASB Bank is now forecasting interest rates to rise from May 2022.
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            • Don't listen to the pointy heads on MSM, they tell fabricated lies to the sheeple.

              Floating rate is between 4 - 5% currently this should ring alarm bells immediately!, but the main trap is they are holding the 1 year rate low while behind the scenes the longer term rates are going up. 5 year fixed rate in late March was 2.99% (westpac) now it is 4.29%, so a rise of 1.3% in under 3 months....do you get the drift of what they are up to yet?? This is nothing new its an old bank trick in this part of the cycle.
              The banksters are enticing people to lock in the low 1 year rate, while behind the scenes the longer fixed term rates are rising. At some stage the 1 year rate will start to rise this will happen sooner rather than later and the masses will start to look at locking in longer term due to the low rate climate, it is at this point its TOO LATE, the longer term rates have already shot up so only option is to bite the bullet and lock in longer at 4-5%, floating at 4-5% or 1-2 years (which are on the rise) so most go, Ok lock in the cheaper short term rate but what will that be after a year?
              Inflation worldwide is increasing at a fast rate, only way to control it is increasing interest rates.

              Comment


              • The government bond yields are tracking down.. have been since Late March.

                I was in the inflation camp but I'm seeing market munipulating by central banks, government's and corporation's to keep inflation down or flat.

                Hundreds of billions mysteriously appearing in the overnight repo market.

                RBNZ has stated they may (will) buy bonds or print money past 2022.

                The likes of China is capping certain commodities within it's country to keep inflation down

                NZ government and RBNZ promoting 0.8 house price growth to keep house prices down (good luck with that)

                Let's not forget the NZ government borrowed billions to pay for welfare and who knows what so it's in there best interest to keep interest rates flat longer term..they are the single biggest debt holder.

                If all that money printing went into realestate and shares, there's a good chance it's staying there and not coming out into the real economy

                You will still be able to pick up mortgage rates in 2023 in the 2% range, but if you want to get played fix longer in the 3%.

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                • We have rampant worldwide inflation now, not far away from hyperinflation, some countries already have it. Repo market is becoming to hot for the fed to handle, they are trying to manipulate and control it but how long can they do this for?
                  The money printing is like throwing petrol on the fire, it will only speed things up (make it worse) So good luck with trying to keep inflation in the bottle, the lid popped a while back and the Genie is out

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                  • Originally posted by chook View Post
                    We have rampant worldwide inflation now, not far away from hyperinflation, some countries already have it. Repo market is becoming to hot for the fed to handle, they are trying to manipulate and control it but how long can they do this for?
                    The money printing is like throwing petrol on the fire, it will only speed things up (make it worse) So good luck with trying to keep inflation in the bottle, the lid popped a while back and the Genie is out
                    Do you have anything to back any of this up?
                    This isn't a joke thread.

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                    • I’m keen to know what to do as I have a loan coming off 2 yr fixed and my thoughts are to get whatever is the lowest rate so that is 1 yr fixed am I doing the right thing? I don’t want to end up with 4% or more in a year.

                      cheers
                      Donna
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                      • I have all my lending coming off in September, including the home, I used to go for the safety of long term, but with what has happened and the manipulation of the dollar I’m thinking the other way, how can they even think about raising them? The banks want lenders to go longer and are manipulating them to do so by threats of rising rates, tricky tricky.
                        "DEBT BECOMES IRRELEVANT WITH INFLATION".

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                        • Having protected my interests by going long term in the past I can categorically say that it was the wrong decision each and every time. I will stick with the one year fixed rate until my loans are paid off.
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                          • I've been taking "the lowest rates" for over a dozen years now. Originally they were for six months, then the banks went and set them for twelve months. I successfully rode these rates all the way down. My feeling now hasn't changed, so still go for the best rate. Beat the banks at their "alleged" game. There is a lot of politics here, bank economists issuing fearful predictions to the media, that rates are going to go up. But what's really happening is lip service. The banks don't want to appear offside with the Govt housing agenda, while at the same time discreetly dropping the one year rates. Which is a large part of their business.

                            There isn't any international wide "bankster conspiracy" Folk will often say that when they've personally made the wrong calls. In reality, and in the main, banks compete with each other. You see this everyday with matching rates. Setting some "trap" isn't going to help their businesses continue to grow, as their shareholders demand.
                            Last edited by Hound; 11-06-2021, 01:12 PM.

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                            • Originally posted by Wayne View Post

                              Do you have anything to back any of this up?
                              This isn't a joke thread.
                              Go and have a look on interest .co and see which way the little arrows are pointing folks, are you ahead of the game or one step behind? whatever you do don't go into denial.ha ha..

                              Now for a joke; did you hear about the Irish property market after the GFC ?

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                              • Originally posted by donna View Post
                                I’m keen to know what to do as I have a loan coming off 2 yr fixed and my thoughts are to get whatever is the lowest rate so that is 1 yr fixed am I doing the right thing? I don’t want to end up with 4% or more in a year.

                                cheers
                                Donna
                                If it helps Tony Alexander doesn't think interest rates are going to have a rampant rise but they may be 1% higher in a year. He goes on to suggest the well-worn strategy to manage the risk by laddering fixed rates rather than do all at 1 year.

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