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  • Originally posted by Judge View Post

    You must be really bored Perry. Find yourself a hobby.
    Ha!
    It's better that you locked in at a higher rate, and spent a little extra, than not locking in, and failing to meet a commitment.
    I for one really enjoy and appreciate the job Perry does to keep it real.
    If the price for that service is his enjoyment from sticking it to people, I say, good on the cheeky devil, admit you got it wrong, and learn from it

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Perry View Post

      Not even close in November 2020, either.
      And why is that perry ... massive central bank intervention, Covid ... you love bringing up old predications but what is yours? Rates will never go up ?

      Comment


      • Originally posted by JBM View Post
        And why is that perry ... massive central bank intervention, Covid ... you love bringing up old predications but what is yours? Rates will never go up?
        Predictions are about the future. That includes all things in the future.

        No one seems to preface predictions with conditions. E.g. If X or Y does / doesn't happen, then I predict . . . .

        Ask Davo about his experience with Olly's prediction[s].

        I also wonder why certain people can't just say, "hell, I got that totally wrong - sorry. I do hope no one acted upon it."

        I don't make predictions.

        Well, beyond predicting that most of the predictions made by others will fail.
        Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Perry View Post
          Predictions are about the future. That includes all things in the future.

          No one seems to preface predictions with conditions. E.g. If X or Y does / doesn't happen, then I predict . . . .

          Ask Davo about his experience with Olly's prediction[s].

          I also wonder why certain people can't just say, "hell, I got that totally wrong - sorry. I do hope no one acted upon it."

          I don't make predictions.

          Well, beyond predicting that most of the predictions made by others will fail.
          I think everyone needs to DOYR when it comes to investing all predictions on forums are just personal opinions and shouldn't be taken as expert 100% will happen ..(not that the experts are much better)

          Yes makes sense to preface predictions with conditions .. guess pure laziness stopped me or maybe I posted on reasons in another post but not in the one shown ...


          So revised predication >

          IMHO NZ Property prices should well run out of steam flatline to fall on the condition Interest rates start heading higher most likely around issues around the DEBT/BOND markets..

          this of course is on the condition the Central Banks + Govt allow price discovery in the DEBT markets rather than what we have seen since 2008 where CB just create money out of thin air and Buy up BONDs pushing the yields lower and lower promoting lending

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Perry View Post
            Predictions are about the future. That includes all things in the future.

            No one seems to preface predictions with conditions. E.g. If X or Y does / doesn't happen, then I predict . . . .

            Ask Davo about his experience with Olly's prediction[s].

            I also wonder why certain people can't just say, "hell, I got that totally wrong - sorry. I do hope no one acted upon it."

            I don't make predictions.

            Well, beyond predicting that most of the predictions made by others will fail.
            Well. excuse us all Perry, we are not making our predictions carefully enough to satisfy your sophisticated taste.

            The point that you are missing is that we are not making predictions. We are voicing out opinions. This is exactly what this forum is for. People voicing their opinions. They may be right, they may be wrong, who cares. This is public forum and everyone has a right to say what's on their mind This is a discussion. It is no one's job here to measure up to your expectations. You do not like my opinion, move right along. Don't waste your precious time on plebs like me who do not know how to make their predictions sufficiently conditional so they can be scientifically measured by Perry in the future. I do not care what you will think about my opinion now or in the future, which is why i am not explaining why i arrive at my conclusions about the future of interest rates. If you are interested in my reasoning, you can always ask me for my reasons. This may prompt and interesting discussion from which everyone can learn something. Instead you make a note in your hobby calendar and wait for four years to bring it up, much to your delight.

            Am i a charlatan? You be the judge. In the 4 years since i wrote the post you quoted i purchased and subdivided two large sections into 10 lots and build 10 houses which are rented to about 60 very happy people here in Wellington. All houses are cashflow positive from day one, not to mention the equity i have in them now. I have also mentored 2 of my friends into property. one of them already has 4 properties (2 cashflow positive and 2 are being developed) and the other one is developing a section to build 4 houses on it, which will be cashflow positive from day one once completed. During these 4 years i made a lot of predictions. Some came true and some did not. So what? I am not pretending to be an expert in any area nor do i charge money for my advice/opinion. What have you done in the last 4 years other than putting people down with your pointless comments? Do share!

            We all make predictions. All the time, every day. I have a friend who was silly enough to make a prediction that next week we can have a dinner together. But a few days ago he found himself in the hospital with a heart attack at age 41 within an inch of his life. If he had a friend like you, he would have got a message from you that it was very stupid for him to assume that he would be alive without sufficient explanation and conditionality. You, Perry, make predictions every day you leave the house predicting that you will not get hit by a bus. Otherwise you would not leave the house if you could not make such a bold prediction. Future is uncertain, we all know that. No point dribbling about this year after year. This adds nothing to the discussion. You are cluttering what is otherwise an interesting thread. I have long stopped following this thread precisely because of posts like Perry's which add zero value and waste my time. And yes Perry, i have moved to PropertyChat on Facebook. It has a magic button which allows me to ignore messages from people whose opinions do not interest me.

            Not sure if you watched a movie called Planes, Trains and Automobiles. In that movie Steve Martin says to his fellow traveler "...and when you tell a story, have a point. It makes it so much more interesting for the listener". Next time you make a post in reply to my posts Perry, have a point. Preferably an original one, not the same one you made 1000 times before. it will make your posts a hell of a lot more fun to read, for all of us. This is my opinion.

            Finally, i will make a prediction about the future, just to prove you wrong that it is pointless to predict the future. Here is my prediction: "Perry will reply to this post with some really toxic attack on me, telling the world that i am not man enough to admit my mistakes". Lets see what happens. I'll check in on this thread in a year or two to see if this prediction comes through. If it does, you will have to stop telling people that predicting the future is pointless. Your reply to this message will forever be proof that predictions about the future sometimes may come true.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by JBM View Post

              - this of course is on the condition the Central Banks + Govt
              -allow price discovery in the DEBT markets -
              - rather than what we have seen since 2008 - .
              Why do you think that the RESERVE BANK would stop distorting price discovery all of a sudden?



              Comment


              • Opinions are one thing, predictions are another. Semantical shuffling, yet another. Why . . .

                You must be really bored Perry. Find yourself a hobby.
                instead of

                Uh-oh, that didn't happen, did it? Bugger.
                The real question is: why bother posting predictive opinions at all? A latent desire to be seen as 'in the know?' Have people in awe?

                Toxic attacks I leave to others. (Such things would likely be subject to moderation, anyway.)

                My vague understanding is that the good on faecesbook slides from view quite quickly, pushed into oblivion by so much dross.

                Perhaps that's the attraction? Not being held to account?

                Originally posted by Anthonyacat View Post
                What I cant stand about Facebook (specifically the big 40k+ members group) is that everything is so immediate, there's no permanence. The same question can be (and is) asked many many times each month, and only a tiny proportion of the group sees the responses. Vast amounts of wasted effort. I hate that my contributions appear to be gone within a couple hours, buried under a pile of rubbish.
                PropertyTalk is rather more enduring.
                Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

                Comment


                • No need to quarrel my fellow capitalist!

                  Jeffas predictions are always accurate! ALWAYS!!

                  DISCLAIMER:King Jeffa has a margin of error within 3 to 5%. Time frames can very 3 to 6 months.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by McDuck View Post

                    Why do you think that the RESERVE BANK would stop distorting price discovery all of a sudden?


                    Central banks and Basel III have more or less removed price discovery from the credit markets, meaning risk does not have an accurate pricing mechanism in interest rates anymore. And now passive investing has removed price discovery from the equity markets. The simple theses and the models that get people into sectors, factors, indexes, or ETFs and mutual funds mimicking those strategies -- these do not require the security-level analysis that is required for true price discovery.

                    “This is very much like the bubble in synthetic asset-backed CDOs before the Great Financial Crisis in that price-setting in that market was not done by fundamental security-level analysis, but by massive capital flows based on Nobel-approved models of risk that proved to be untrue.”
                    -----Michael Burry

                    So I think like M.Burry who might I add puts its much better than I could ....you can't keep distorting markets , this has been going on for a very long time but how much longer the GFC was the first signs all was not good
                    Last edited by JBM; 22-11-2020, 09:40 PM.

                    Comment


                    • Prediction on interest rates..I give you permission Perry to mock and scorn me in 5 to 10 years if I'm wrong.

                      INTEREST RATES WILL NEVER RETURN BACK TO NORMAL RATES OF 5 or 6%

                      It would be impossible for governments to repay the debt because tax intake would not be sufficient to service the debt alone as they would still need taxes/money for everything else in our state burdened society..who will house the unemployable? Or educate more tax slaves in our insightful education system.

                      I'll let everyone in on a secret..

                      Our central bank has been deleting government debt, its relatively easy and nobody knows about it. They have been deleting zeros of their spread sheet.

                      Why don't they delete everyone's debt you may ask?

                      Because if nobody had debt all that extra cash would most likely lead to a flood of spending and hyperinflation..so it has to be done slowly and secretly.
                      Last edited by Jeffa; 22-11-2020, 10:19 PM. Reason: 2030

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Jeffa View Post
                        Prediction on interest rates..I give you permission Perry to mock and scorn me in 5 to 10 years if I'm wrong.

                        INTEREST RATES WILL NEVER RETURN BACK TO NORMAL RATES OF 5 or 6%

                        It would be impossible for governments to repay the debt because tax intake would not be sufficient to service the debt alone as they would still need taxes/money for everything else in our state burdened society..who will house the unemployable? Or educate more tax slaves in our insightful education system.

                        I'll let everyone in on a secret..

                        Our central bank has been deleting government debt, its relatively easy and nobody knows about it. They have been deleting zeros of their spread sheet.

                        Why don't they delete everyone's debt you may ask?

                        Because if nobody had debt all that extra cash would most likely lead to a flood of spending and hyperinflation..so it has to be done slowly and secretly.
                        Ha!
                        I think he will do more than that.
                        He may not simply want to take you down a notch.
                        He may be worried that gullible people will read this forum and make unwise financial decisions based on half truths and selective figures.
                        Possibly, to him, there's a imbalance of justice, where you get to highnote, and silly people wind up in debt because of it.

                        Apart from that, you have some really good ideas and very very good insights.

                        Last edited by McDuck; 23-11-2020, 05:57 AM.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by JBM View Post

                          Central banks and Basel III have more or less removed price discovery from the credit markets, meaning risk does not have an accurate pricing mechanism in interest rates anymore. And now passive investing has removed price discovery from the equity markets. The simple theses and the models that get people into sectors, factors, indexes, or ETFs and mutual funds mimicking those strategies -- these do not require the security-level analysis that is required for true price discovery.

                          “This is very much like the bubble in synthetic asset-backed CDOs before the Great Financial Crisis in that price-setting in that market was not done by fundamental security-level analysis, but by massive capital flows based on Nobel-approved models of risk that proved to be untrue.”
                          -----Michael Burry

                          So I think like M.Burry who might I add puts its much better than I could ....you can't keep distorting markets , this has been going on for a very long time but how much longer the GFC was the first signs all was not good
                          Yes, you're totally correct.
                          And its true that, the chaps and chapesses working the RESERVE BANK do follow the Basel example, even though they are not part of the accord.

                          But, you didn't answer the question.

                          The most important question.

                          What makes you think that the people at the RESERVE BANK will change their ways?

                          Basically,

                          What is going to FORCE them to take another approach?

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by McDuck View Post

                            Ha!
                            I think he will do more than that.
                            He may not simply want to take you down a notch.
                            He may be worried that gullible people will read this forum and make unwise financial decisions based on half truths and selective figures.
                            Possibly, to him, there's a imbalance of justice, where you get to highnote, and silly people wind up in debt because of it.

                            Apart from that, you have some really good ideas and very very good insights.
                            The scary thing is all my predictions have happened or are in the process of happening..

                            Comment


                            • No news of a NZ share market collapse, yet.
                              But I suppose you have until the end of the year.
                              Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Jeffa View Post

                                The scary thing is all my predictions have happened or are in the process of happening..
                                Yup, your understanding of high finance is right on the money.

                                A very unusual interest, for a boy from the hood...

                                But

                                With no understanding of high finance, you still would have done just fine.

                                You served a low decile market, that many others couldn't, or wouldn't.
                                And that required only basic financial understanding to make work.

                                Hat off to you, it was good work.

                                But even your plans,(a cash purchase), have been thwarted by the old boys in high finance.


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