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  • does he even say that?


    • How much will the floating interest rate increase next month?

      Does everyone see a relatively large increase and if so what sought of figures are we looking at for floating interest rates?
      Is fixing advised before next month?


      • The exchange rate is already too high.
        I think it's still mostly just hot air.
        If the exchange rates drop a bit - then look out!
        The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates and a monthly salary - Fred Wilson.


        • Dollar at 5-month low against US
          The New Zealand dollar touched a five-month low as investors sold riskier assets on concern emerging markets and so-called risk assets will falter should global growth slow.


          • I was just going to quote from the same article, sb. You know what annoys me? Sentence 1: "The New Zealand dollar touched a five-month low as investors sold riskier assets on concern emerging markets and so-called risk assets will falter should global growth slow".

            Then, when the $ gets strong, you hear the same pundits explaining it's because of slow global growth and investors looking for a better return on cash. Arthur or Martha? Idiots.


            • Originally posted by orion View Post

              How do you know there will be a downturn around 2017????
              Also, you mentioned your loans are all interest only, so are you planning on making lump sum payments to bring the LVR rate to below 50%, or are you ASSUMING the properties will go up in order for that to happen.
              You mentioned you were a novice at the start of this post, I don't see any evidence to see that has changed, unless I'm missing something?

              2017 (more like 2016) is just a guess based on historic events, 1986, 1996, 2000/2001, 2007-08 etc

              I plan to shift them to P&I when the interest only periods end.

              According to market values as of today, my portfolio is around 48% LVR.

              Well as for me being novice or not, well comparing to Ron Hoy Fong or yourself (you got 40+ properties correct?) yes I am.

              Comparing to others, well maybe I'm not so novice since I have been invited to speak at APIA and stuff.

              Anyways, what other's think of me is none of my business =D


              • Originally posted by elguapo View Post
                Does he say why?
                Last time I heard, Ron believes Central Auckland will start to slow down in 2015, and hit the peak in 2016. South Auckland peak at 2017.

                Anyways I don't want to put words in Ron's mouth, anyone interested can contact Ron, or meet him at this months APIA South Auckland meeting.


                • so at this stage none of you are fixing mortgages at the best rate you can find? wont it be too late to see what transpires next month and act accordingly as all the fixed rates have already started going up?


                  • Depends.
                    You want the cheapest overall interest cost, or do you want to purchase an interest cost insurance policy ?
                    A great deal of the time you can't have both.
                    And of course you only find out in hindsight if it was worth it....that's how insurance works.

                    Hence why many people split and use a mix of floating and different fixed terms.

                    The type of money personality you have and individual circumstances means different people will view risk differently.


                    • 100% correct SB. Particulary the last bit.


                      • I have some fixed at 1yr, some at 2yr, and some at 3yr. Could have saved some $$$ today, but as said this gives me some insurance on rate rises. No one can accurately predict where they will go in the next few years.

                        Just fixed these all today. Time will tell if I made the right decision.


                        • am i right in thinking pc, speights boy and letette dont think the rise will amount to much next month and therefore arnt fixing from above comments?


                          • The question is void for my circumstances, absoluke. I have no mortgage. If I had, I'd probably be fixing some and floating some to hedge both sides.


                            • thanks leftette. what would term would you consider best? 12 months to see what happens or longer to be safe?


                              • What Were The Predictions?

                                Seems like a good time to recommend PT Forumites
                                go back and have a look at this post/thread.
                                Ron Hoy Fong - Will The Next Boom Be The Boom Of All Booms?

                                Ron's first post in that thread.
                                Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!