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  • Westpac...

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    • I'll be surprised if they go up at all in the next 6 months. NZ$ is still high against the US$ and even higher than usual against the OZ$.
      You can find me at: Energise Web Design

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      • Well, Drelly, a whole lot went up today.
        See http://www.interest.co.nz/borrowing
        "There's one way to find out if a man is honest-ask him. If he says 'yes,' you know he is a crook." Groucho Marx

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        • Originally posted by drelly View Post
          I'll be surprised if they go up at all in the next 6 months. NZ$ is still high against the US$ and even higher than usual against the OZ$.
          You may want to add some extra info to your assessment. Although the ECB has dropped the base rates again ( a few weeks ago) banks are starting to raise interest rates on floating mortgages. It seems banks cannot drop interest rates any lower. The outlook appears to show increasing interest rates independent of the ECB. As money gets more expensive in Europe NZ banks may need to raise interest rates to stop money flowing elsewhere. NZ banks lend long and borrow short so any overseas movements in interest rates feed into NZ mortgage rates reasonably quickly. Also as the NZ dollar goes up the risk of a retreat in its value increases with the result that hedging costs will increase.
          The mission of any business enterprise should include the aim to develop economic conditions rather than simply react to them.

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          • Originally posted by drelly View Post
            I'll be surprised if they go up at all in the next 6 months. NZ$ is still high against the US$ and even higher than usual against the OZ$.
            Should have worded that better... I meant the OCR.
            You can find me at: Energise Web Design

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            • it's a fascinating conundrum the modern? western? has constructed for itself

              for most of history, when the battle hasn't been violent, it has been about equality and equal opportunity

              we've pretty much got that now

              but equality and equal opportunity hasn't been enough for everyone

              those people want more than equality and more than equal opportunity

              they want equal outcomes

              without equal input

              the french want to retire like the germans do

              but they want to do it without ever having worked as hard

              the greeks want to retire like the austrians do

              but they want to do it earlier and without ever being as educated

              this also goes for sub-groups

              the roma would like better outcomes

              and they would like them without having to go to school at all

              with their daughters marrying at 13, having 5 - 10 kids, that they give away as needed to people better able to support them

              meanwhile hard working and adventurous africans, that despair of ever getting ahead in their own countries

              risk their lives to sell scraps outside european train stations

              we have such a globalisation of people, work, transportation and law

              that the only real answer is a globalised government

              which won't happen in our lifetimes

              because the rich in the west don't want to, can't, support the world's poor

              and the poor in the west don't want them to either

              as it would mean less support for them
              have you defeated them?
              your demons

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Austrokiwi View Post
                NZ banks lend long and borrow short so any overseas movements in interest rates feed into NZ mortgage rates reasonably quickly.
                I thought they had been forced into having more balance of terms between lending and borrowing?

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                • If the RBNZ lifts the OCR they risk 2 things; Our dollar going up, which will hurt the exporters, and the housing market imploding - which would completely stuff our whole economy.

                  So they're in a bind which is why they're trying the loan lvr stuff.
                  Squadly dinky do!

                  Comment


                  • Davo
                    What you you mean by the term "imploding" ?

                    If the housing market / debt levels can't handle a 25,50, or even 75 basis point rise over the next 12 or 18 months, then we must be overdue for some medicine I reckon.

                    A couple of small rises early, may be a lot better than waiting.

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                    • Originally posted by speights boy View Post
                      If the housing market / debt levels can't handle a 25,50, or even 75 basis point rise over the next 12 or 18 months, then we must be overdue for some medicine I reckon.

                      A couple of small rises early, may be a lot better than waiting.
                      Agreed - it is going o happen sooner or later.
                      Maybe later will make a bigger mess than sooner?
                      Too much sugar for too long.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by speights boy View Post
                        Davo
                        What you you mean by the term "imploding" ?

                        If the housing market / debt levels can't handle a 25,50, or even 75 basis point rise over the next 12 or 18 months, then we must be overdue for some medicine I reckon.

                        A couple of small rises early, may be a lot better than waiting.
                        Originally posted by Wayne View Post
                        Agreed - it is going o happen sooner or later.
                        Maybe later will make a bigger mess than sooner?
                        Too much sugar for too long.
                        I think you're forgetting that this "Housing Boom" isn't happening outside Auckland and Christchurch!
                        You can find me at: Energise Web Design

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                        • Originally posted by drelly View Post
                          I think you're forgetting that this "Housing Boom" isn't happening outside Auckland and Christchurch!
                          good point!
                          Nice and steady in Hamilton. I am told it is rising but not shooting away which is the way I prefer.
                          No boom so hopefully no bust.
                          But we will all be tarred with the Auckland brush (I think Christchurch has a pretty good reason for a price rise).

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                          • Originally posted by drelly View Post
                            I think you're forgetting that this "Housing Boom" isn't happening outside Auckland and Christchurch!
                            No, I am not.

                            What I am saying is: if households' have so much debt that can't afford a rise in rates of 1% then they have too much debt.
                            They should have fixed long term as insurance; or they are quite possibly going to find that commodity (debt) is costing them more each week.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by speights boy View Post
                              No, I am not.

                              What I am saying is: if households' have so much debt that can't afford a rise in rates of 1% then they have too much debt.
                              They should have fixed long term as insurance; or they are quite possibly going to find that commodity (debt) is costing them more each week.
                              If you are that close then fixing long term is only a stop gap. If the fixing comes off at a high interest time then you would be stuffed.
                              Playing Russian Roulette really.
                              Unless you can fix long, save hard and pay down heaps when it comes off fixed (or better fix most long and pay the rest off fast).
                              All this would take more thinkin than most people will apply.
                              Tears to come again I think - give it 2-3 years.

                              Comment


                              • ^
                                True.
                                As the OCR increases next year there will be regular bleeding heart stories in the media about how much extra mortgage repayments are each week.

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