Interest Rates

[NovInvestor]

Latest refinance from BNZ to Kiwibank.

Loan amount $207k.

Cashback incl legals $2000
Rate 4.85% PA for 6 months

[Davo36]

Well done NovInvestor. That's a good rate and good chunk of money for legals etc.

[NovInvestor]

Well done NovInvestor. That's a good rate and good chunk of money for legals etc.

I have just bought two units yesterday so I will see what ANZ gives me.

[Simmo]

I have just bought two units yesterday so I will see what ANZ gives me.

I got $2200 out of them for 210K of lending, that was a couple of months ago during the NB merger though.

[NovInvestor]

The two units I have bought, $440k lending, I got $2500, 4.95% fixed for 6 months... very average rates, but my broker told me ANZ has toughened up slightly for investors (he may be lying to keep me happy lmao).

[essence]

Mortgage rate rises picked

5:30 AM Friday Jan 11, 2013

Source

[Perry]

Gotta like the pic with the story:



Home owners have been moving from floating mortgages to fixed mortgages
in greater numbers. Photo / Getty Images

[NovInvestor]

Maybe the next bust will start when these newly fixed mortgages expire...

[Austrokiwi]

There are alot of caveats in that article. Given the state of interest rates in Europe and the US.... any move to raise NZs interest rates upwards would see the NZ Dollars value rise considerably and catastrophically for exporters. I think the Reseve bank may find it can't raise interest rates in NZ until European and US interest rates have gone up at least 2% from current levels, that is not likely to be seen until 2014 at the earliest.

[drelly]

There are alot of caveats in that article. Given the state of interest rates in Europe and the US.... any move to raise NZs interest rates upwards would see the NZ Dollars value rise considerably and catastrophically for exporters. I think the Reseve bank may find it can't raise interest rates in NZ until European and US interest rates have gone up at least 2% from current levels, that is not likely to be seen until 2014 at the earliest.

Totally agree with this. We're stuck in a good place for once!

[speights boy]

...... would see the NZ Dollars value rise considerably and catastrophically for exporters.

The NZD in 2012 was the highest ( taken as an average over the whole year) since it was floated.
If the RB raised the rate 0.25% in sept, how much, in your opinion, would that cause the dollar to rise?
What exporters specifically do you think would be affected 'catastrophically'.

There are some good earnings - actual & forecasts - coming through for a lot of our companies with earnings overseas; and I assume they are definitely factoring in a higher dollar as part of those forecasts.

[Austrokiwi]

Putting a number in answer to your question is difficult it depends on a range of factors: IMHO the NZ$'s current high levels is due to speculation and the high (In OECD terms) interest rates. Why speculators: the NZ dollar is less likely to be influenced by US/European Conservative investors because they would be looking at the risk of the NZ dollar dropping Speculators who are often dealing several millions at a time are continually assessing the risk and hedging to moderate any risks. The next few weeks ( couple of months) will clarify the situation. If the US Congress is true to form there will be a messy, temporary solution to the debt ceiling. More than likely traders speculators will look at the signals given by congress' actions to see where the US$ is going. If the decide that the politicians are going to cause more US$ depreciation then more money will flow to the NZ dollar. If a miracle happens and a satisfactory end solution is agreed on the expectation would be that the US$ will climb and that could see the Kiwi drop. For a good part of the last ten years the NZ$ has been positively correlated with the gold price IMHO I believe the emotions of speculators have created that correlation......I for one will be watching the Gold market to get an idea of where the NZ$ will go. As for a number; well If the RBNZ raises the OCR in an environment where the US congress has "kicked the can along the Road" then The NZ dollar could reach parity with the US$.

[speights boy]

It would be interesting to see in what forms investments in the NZD are made - I don't know.
Obviously The Govt would be the largest borrower and then perhaps Bank funding.
Whether the asset sales go ahead will affect the former; and the ability of the banks to sell their product and how expensive it is will affect the latter.

In this coming March & April for example ANZ & BNZ each have a perpetual callable bond reaching a rate reset date.
There is talk that instead of reseting they may repay the bonds early.
The total is about 1.3b that would be looking for a new home.
Not huge, but after all it's not far off what the Govt hope to raise from the sale of MRP.
Even 15m of Telecom shares trading a day may have some dollar effect depending on who is buy and selling.

I for one don't expect the US congress to do anything but band aid actions, the two sides are too entrenched and afraid of being accused of backing down.
However if the US economy does continue to show some positive signs then their companies are also paying increasing dividends.

For our companies that earn overseas I still think a mid to high 80s for the USD would be factored into 2013/14 FY; and a 25 basis point increase mid term would not have catastrophic effects for them.

[Perry]

Another Where Are They Now reminder

Yet more from my: Another Year On File

Homeowners Warned On Interest Rates
NZPA
05/01/2011

A leading bank economist is warning home buyers that current below-
average fixed term mortgage rates could start rising "quite rapidly".

Westpac senior economist Dominick Stephens said people had flocked
to the value of low interest floating rates, in the wake of the global
economic crisis and subsequent slow recovery.

[Austrokiwi]

I see NZ inflation rate has dipped to around 1%. Such a low level indicates (to me at least) that NZ is finally starting to loose the fight against deflation. As for interest rates....if the inflation rate keeps at the current level or drops further there is no way the RB is going to raise interest rates: the normal action with such low inflation rates would be to lower the OCR. Given the anti PI drivers I don't think the Reserve bank will go that way howeever they are very unlikely to raise the OCR.