Full time investors - When you gave up 9-5?

[orion]

See, all you do is criticise.

Now you criticise Ron as well.

Good for you.

Gary, are you for real?
There is no criticism, I am just observing and giving my point of view on things.
You or anyone else doesn't have to agree with it.
You seem to take everything that is said to you, or about you, that isn't in a glowingly guru and uplifting kind of way, as a criticism.

It's not meant that way at all, it's you reading into things that aren't said or implied.
Read what is written, not what you think or interpret what it all means about you.
What I say about you or the way you do things is only my opinion, that's it.

[PTILoveYou]

Gary, are you for real?
There is no criticism, I am just observing and giving my point of view on things.
You or anyone else doesn't have to agree with it.
You seem to take everything that is said to you, or about you, that isn't in a glowingly guru and uplifting kind of way, as a criticism.

It's not meant that way at all, it's you reading into things that aren't said or implied.
Read what is written, not what you think or interpret what it all means about you.
What I say about you or the way you do things is only my opinion, that's it.

Power of association.

Words that you type are always negative towards another forumer.

You just don't see it.

You use nice words at the beginning, but then start to criticise.

Anyways, keep it up, I'm not reading.

[orion]

Power of association.

Words that you type are always negative towards another forumer.

You just don't see it.

You use nice words at the beginning, but then start to criticise.

Anyways, keep it up, I'm not reading.

Okay, if you say so Gary

Have a nice weekend.

[PTILoveYou]

Okay, if you say so Gary

Have a nice weekend.

Have a long weekend too, take care of yourself

[Courham]

Power of association.

Words that you type are always negative towards another forumer.

You just don't see it.

You use nice words at the beginning, but then start to criticise.

Anyways, keep it up, I'm not reading.

If your not reading Gary, how do you keep responding to Orion?

His criticisms/ concerns over your strategy are well founded and his strategy is much lower risk/ safer. However, his strategy too requires a lot of knowledge and possibly contacts to sniff out those deals where he has been able to buy at 20% below GV.

Just because the bank can/will loan you another mill does it mean you should take it. I'd recommend rewatching that 60mins story where the couple are blaming the bank for them being bankrupt- its their fault after all they gave use the money.

From my PoV at present you seem to have inflated your ego based on recent newspaper articles, mentoring role with Ron etc and so may not be actually taking a cold hard look at reality before jumping in even deeper due to being hyped up on your own success- that is just my perception though.

As I've said before your strategy has worked out for you, you've now plenty of equity and are hopefully going to do okay if a correction does occur but I would think twice before recommending anyone follow your advice, Orion on the other hand I've suggested his strategy to a number of people looking to invest.

Craig

[PTILoveYou]

As I've said before your strategy has worked out for you, you've now plenty of equity and are hopefully going to do okay if a correction does occur but I would think twice before recommending anyone follow your advice, Orion on the other hand I've suggested his strategy to a number of people looking to invest.

Craig

Keep on recommending his strategy then.

I'm sure GF will be happy with all the newbies buying up his trades, so that he can keep building up his empire.

It's good to have less competition in Auckland when newbies speculate in the regions

Have a good long weekend =D

[Courham]

Keep on recommending his strategy then.

I'm sure GF will be happy with all the newbies buying up his trades, so that he can keep building up his empire.

It's good to have less competition in Auckland when newbies speculate in the regions

Have a good long weekend =D

Despite your obvious disdain for the rest of the country, there is money to be made in the provinces and many are doing well in the regions by INVESTING wisely not SPECULATING and endlessly chasing the mythical capital gains monster.

Cutting your teeth in the provinces is IMO quite a sensible strategy in the current climate- those that jump in to Auckland under the fear that they may miss out are those in most danger. Down here we have heaps of dairy farmers that bought in late to the boom who are really struggling and many of them should go under as their "businesses" are not financially viable. Same will happen in property when there is a correction and no doubt it will mainly be overleveraged investors and the poor first home buyers that get burnt.

I'd rather encourage a newbie to buy a property for $180k-250k with a mortgage of $140K-$200K in an area they can afford which is positively geared than talk them into a $750k-$900k property that is negatively geared in the hope that they will make $100k in capital gains in the next year based on my own strategy that is no longer relevant in the currnet market.

Maybe if you guaranteed your $100k-$200k year on year gains to your disciples they'd have a chance. However, I see it all ending in tears for many of your followers when your pack of cards comes tumbling down.

Craig

[PTILoveYou]

Despite your obvious disdain for the rest of the country, there is money to be made in the provinces and many are doing well in the regions by INVESTING wisely not SPECULATING and endlessly chasing the mythical capital gains monster.

Cutting your teeth in the provinces is IMO quite a sensible strategy in the current climate- those that jump in to Auckland under the fear that they may miss out are those in most danger. Down here we have heaps of dairy farmers that bought in late to the boom who are really struggling and many of them should go under as their "businesses" are not financially viable. Same will happen in property when there is a correction and no doubt it will mainly be overleveraged investors and the poor first home buyers that get burnt.

I'd rather encourage a newbie to buy a property for $180k-250k with a mortgage of $140K-$200K in an area they can afford which is positively geared than talk them into a $750k-$900k property that is negatively geared in the hope that they will make $100k in capital gains in the next year based on my own strategy that is no longer relevant in the currnet market.

Maybe if you guaranteed your $100k-$200k year on year gains to your disciples they'd have a chance. However, I see it all ending in tears for many of your followers when your pack of cards comes tumbling down.

Craig

Again, I thank you guys for reducing the competition in the central Auckland market =D

Also good luck to those who believe they can save their next deposit on $50/wk cashflow.

[PTILoveYou]

A typical conversation I would have with people investing outside of Auckland.

Me: So you investing for cashflow?

Stranger: Yes I do, that's investing, right?

Me: So how do you get your next deposit?

Stranger: Save up and using the cashflow?

Me: How long would that take to save up $30k, assuming your rental would be $150k.

Stranger: Uhh, a year or two?

Me: No come on, without your income, how long would your $50/wk cashflow positive rent save you that $30k next deposit?

Strangter: Uhh (gets out a calculator), 600 weeks...

Me: How many years is that?

Stranger: Uhh (punch some numbers on the calculator), 11.5 years..........................................

Me: How do you accelerate that, so you don't buy just one property per 11.5 years? Or say every two years if you use your savings? Be realistic man, you gotta spend some on something.

Stranger: Uhh, no can't do that, because Graham told me not to top up, and save my every deposit.

Me: Ok, that sounds like a sound strategy. (Ending the conversation and walking away)

Stranger: Oh hang on Gary, I could trade to get the deposit!

Me: Ok, what's your profit margin per deal?

Stranger: Uhh, I buy a run down property for $100k, spend $10k doing it up, sell it for $150k?

Me: How much is GST

Stranger: 15%?

Me: How much is personal tax rate?

Stranger: Uhh 30-33%?

Me: How much is the real estate agent fee?

Stranger: Uhh 15k?

Me: How much is the holding cost, finance cost, & lawyers fees?

Stranger: Uhh 3-5k?

Me: So how much is left?

Stranger: Uhh (gets out the calculator again).. 10k?

Me: Do you have time to do 3 deals per year, from Auckland?

Stranger: Uhh, yeah sure, I don't have a girl friend...

Me: Ok, sounds like a good strategy bro... (walking away for good this time!)

[Courham]

Of course Gary, one doesn't simply save the $50 per week towards the next property, you would use your own savings to enhance it possibly add value to the property (do it up, reconfigure etc), possibly revalue in a year to 18 months and then look at what is happening in the market- it is not a race and the first one to 1,2,5,10 mill "wins:" There is an old adage the faster you go the bigger mess which many negative gearing proponents learned in 2007-10.

You appear to be trumpeting a "qucjc get in now before its too late, you can't lose in the current market, apprach which IMO is rather dangerous.

I am looking forward to seeing how your strategy works out for you and others in the next 2-3 years. It has worked well over the past 3-5, if it continues to do well and their is no correction then I'd say great punt, well done. If however there is a major correction and your followers $850k houses are suddenly worth $700k or less and the banks get very nervous and demand payment then it will all in tears for many.

Finally, how much capital gain are you banking on per property in the next 12 months? It is a fundamental part of to your strategy so I'd be interested in your insights into the future gains over the next year.

How about their current worth and your prediction of their worth in 12 months based on your insights into the market for you surely know/see more than the rest of us in this regards. Would be interesting to see if your crystal ball is correct.

Regards

Craig

[Don't believe the Hype]

Of course Gary, one doesn't simply save the $50 per week towards the next property, you would use your own savings to enhance it possibly add value to the property (do it up, reconfigure etc), possibly revalue in a year to 18 months and then look at what is happening in the market- it is not a race and the first one to 1,2,5,10 mill "wins:" There is an old adage the faster you go the bigger mess which many negative gearing proponents learned in 2007-10.

You appear to be trumpeting a "qucjc get in now before its too late, you can't lose in the current market, apprach which IMO is rather dangerous.

I am looking forward to seeing how your strategy works out for you and others in the next 2-3 years. It has worked well over the past 3-5, if it continues to do well and their is no correction then I'd say great punt, well done. If however there is a major correction and your followers $850k houses are suddenly worth $700k or less and the banks get very nervous and demand payment then it will all in tears for many.

Finally, how much capital gain are you banking on per property in the next 12 months? It is a fundamental part of to your strategy so I'd be interested in your insights into the future gains over the next year.

How about their current worth and your prediction of their worth in 12 months based on your insights into the market for you surely know/see more than the rest of us in this regards. Would be interesting to see if your crystal ball is correct.

Regards

Craig

I'm not here to make personal attacks rather to give a balanced view.

Craig the answer to your question about how sure Gary is about his strategy is driven by his actions - not his words.

The reality is he continues to maintain a day job earning good money (I'm betting 6 figures) at council. If he was so sure of the strategy and his banks credit team supported the strategy he could stop Working for the man and go full time into property. he will say he likes his job and can do both... I said that too till I was certain (and had the banks support) that i didn't need the wage!

While Gary still has a day job you can take that as he is willing to take a good risk on Auckland but isn't entirely sure.

the truth is no one knows for sure - the calculated gamble taken now in Auckland is fine if you have a good equity buffer or a good wage or someone to underwrite the risk you're taking.

if you're none of these proceed with caution!

Gary - I'm not a hater so don't get upset this is not a personal attack in fact I'd be more than willing to meet you one day to discuss these strategies I'm also happy if Auckland growth continues forever as your success here has no impact on me or my family... up down sideways I just don't care... I'm just looking to ensure we don't get caught up in the hype. It's all fun and games on the way up not so much when you lose $1million.

[PTILoveYou]

Of course Gary, one doesn't simply save the $50 per week towards the next property, you would use your own savings to enhance it possibly add value to the property (do it up, reconfigure etc), possibly revalue in a year to 18 months and then look at what is happening in the market- it is not a race and the first one to 1,2,5,10 mill "wins:" There is an old adage the faster you go the bigger mess which many negative gearing proponents learned in 2007-10.

You appear to be trumpeting a "qucjc get in now before its too late, you can't lose in the current market, apprach which IMO is rather dangerous.

I am looking forward to seeing how your strategy works out for you and others in the next 2-3 years. It has worked well over the past 3-5, if it continues to do well and their is no correction then I'd say great punt, well done. If however there is a major correction and your followers $850k houses are suddenly worth $700k or less and the banks get very nervous and demand payment then it will all in tears for many.

Finally, how much capital gain are you banking on per property in the next 12 months? It is a fundamental part of to your strategy so I'd be interested in your insights into the future gains over the next year.

How about their current worth and your prediction of their worth in 12 months based on your insights into the market for you surely know/see more than the rest of us in this regards. Would be interesting to see if your crystal ball is correct.

Regards

Craig

So you are admitting that GF's strategy of never topping up flawed then?

If investors don't take some bigger risks, how do they get a decent size portfolio? So many amateur investors stop at 2 to 3 rentals, how can that little properties give a sufficient comfortable life style?? Also if you have the options to buy more, for your kids, grand kids, great grand kids, why not? Properties, in the very long term, never get any cheaper. Properties are an intrinsic need, people always need a roof over their heads.

No I'm not saying people should get in the market before its too late. I am encouraging those who want to take some calculated risk, to get in before this cycle ends, in good areas of auckland where it is more recession proof (average working class areas in central auckland). Also investors need to buy according to their financial strength and weaknesses.

If the investor has poor income, then go make some money/income. If cashflow is very important, then sure, buy in South Auckland. But be damn well to buy well and manage your property well, or other wise the next downturn will bankrupt you, or your nasty tenants will make you sell and quit the game.

For my properties, I have got close to zero mortgage on my own home (if you count 130k mortgage as mortgage these days), surplus income close to 30k net cash positive per year from my rentals, 45% LVR, I'm comfortable to take on risks. Heck I'm more worried about the taxes I need to pay after some of my other loans come to renew and I fix them to a lower rate! FYI my total mortgage is 3.8mil.

If you want to see what my portfolio roughly look like:


This was from one of my APIA or ANZ Chinese presentation. I'm not going to waste any more time updating that to 2016 values.

I'm not showing this pic to show off or win an argument. I'm here to impress up on you that if people in Auckland invested in the right time like I did, in the right areas of Auckland, studied real estate basics and had a brilliant coach like Ron Hoy Fong, they too could have achieved what I have achieved with persistence and action.

Prediction for the next 12 months on my portfolio? Who cares if the market drops 20% next year? Like I said, I'm more worried about the taxes I have to start paying once my 5% loans mature over the next few months, and I refix them to 4% if not lower!

[PTILoveYou]

I'm not here to make personal attacks rather to give a balanced view.

Craig the answer to your question about how sure Gary is about his strategy is driven by his actions - not his words.

The reality is he continues to maintain a day job earning good money (I'm betting 6 figures) at council. If he was so sure of the strategy and his banks credit team supported the strategy he could stop Working for the man and go full time into property. he will say he likes his job and can do both... I said that too till I was certain (and had the banks support) that i didn't need the wage!

While Gary still has a day job you can take that as he is willing to take a good risk on Auckland but isn't entirely sure.

the truth is no one knows for sure - the calculated gamble taken now in Auckland is fine if you have a good equity buffer or a good wage or someone to underwrite the risk you're taking.

if you're none of these proceed with caution!

Gary - I'm not a hater so don't get upset this is not a personal attack in fact I'd be more than willing to meet you one day to discuss these strategies I'm also happy if Auckland growth continues forever as your success here has no impact on me or my family... up down sideways I just don't care... I'm just looking to ensure we don't get caught up in the hype. It's all fun and games on the way up not so much when you lose $1million.

Yes you are pretty spot on in your analysis of my personal circumstances.

I don't have a negative opinion about you, GF is only one on my hater's list at the moment. But it's good to have haters in life, they keep me motivated to keep working hard, invest smart, and proof them wrong =D

Am I taking a big risk and punt on Auckland? Of course I am, and so is Ron Hoy Fong and all our students. If you follow Tony Alexander's commentary, he's pretty bullish as well. I would never in my life trust Doomsday Hickey or Mr Shambles.

But think about it, if prices in Auckland were to drop 20%, what will the rest of the country do? I would not wish to own real estate outside of Auckland with any sizeable mortgage lol!

Let's just wait and see shall we? Let's come back to this post sometime in the not so distant future, and we shall see if I am either bankrupt or richer

[Courham]

Thanks Gary, I do appreciate your response- more so than your one or two line quips.

The question me is was you getting into the market when you did good timing or good luck? I know from previous posts that you tried the sharemarket and lost. My view more luck than skill was involved.

I am sure if there is a correction/downturn you will be fine, my concern is for others thinking that at this point the cycle they can emulate your success using the same capital gain based strategy.

As for a 20% drop I for one care, not for you but for those that think they too can enjoy your success if they start now, or started within the last 12 (or 24) months. They are the ones who will get burnt- you are savvy enough, and have built up enough equity, to come out okay.

My concern is that, like it or not, you now have a reputation both on propertytalk and in the general public and so some of your more flippant comments can influence people for better or worse and that your strategy is not a sustainable one for those seeking to emulate your success using your success at this point in the market and are likely to be vulnerable should the market turn. I do hope I am proved wrong though.

I do wish you all the best.

Regards

Craig

[Frezzinghot]

Sometimes it is the day job that holds you back.
Without the tie you would have more time to get the deals.

Personally I find it hard to give up the day job while it still pays high 6 figures - seems like money for jam.

This is what I currently struggle with, I probably need to spend more time looking for deals after work but get lazy at times, I am currently trading and really enjoy it but think the job does hold me back from really breaking loose. Anyway I have to keep going to realise the goal of working for myself one day.

FH