What Would be the Signs of an Economic Recession?

[JABlog]

The thread initiator became concerned about inappropriate negativity, so the topic title has been amended.

For you or NZ, what would you regard as signs of an economic slowdown?

Are any of them now present, to any significant degree?

[speights boy]

It's a slowdown when your neighbour is affected.
It's a recession when you are affected.

[PTILoveYou]

For Auckland, when the US sharemarket crashes.

For rest of NZ, it's already heading that way.

[Wayne]

For Auckland, when the US sharemarket crashes.

For rest of NZ, it's already heading that way.

You really think that what affects NZ (ex Ak) won't affect Auckland?
We aren't just talking house prices here!

[Perry]

Boom of all booms?
or
doom of all dooms?

What Would be the Signs of an Economic Recession?

When Blenglish can't borrow any more money from
wherever, to keep the mirage looking bright & shiny?
How much per week is he borrowing presently, to
keep the rock star economy off the rocks?

My crystal ball is at the cleaners, for the moment.

[Tomo]

Keep an eye on the unemployment rate and migration figures. And the same for Australia, If new migrants find it difficult to find employment they will look at alternative destination with better opportunities. They flow of foreign capital start to will abate. At the moment it looks pretty rosy, except for dairy but their cycles are generally quite short, so could improve reasonably fast.

[PTILoveYou]

You really think that what affects NZ (ex Ak) won't affect Auckland?
We aren't just talking house prices here!

When Olly Newland starts selling and Bernard Hickey comes with his doomsday news, you know it's near the end ;-)

[flyernzl]

When Bob Jones takes delivery of a new aeroplane?

[Damap]

Whilst Gary's comments seem silly you do almost have to talk about Auckland and rest of NZ. Assuming your question relates to real estate the only thing that will take out Auckland is a dramatic rise in interest rates and that is most unlikely.

Bigger picture the dairy industry is a huge concern, a lot of farmers could lose their land.
Our low dollar is great for exports but hugely inflationary on imports.
China devaluing is going to hurt our dollar further.

None of the regions have boomed and they often only do so every 2nd or third cycle so they may go into slump again without any real bull run.

The things to watch IMHO are
1. Employment, rising already,
2. Interest rates, not going anywhere,
3. Any talk of inflation.

[chrisgoh]

When NZ no longer attractive to foreigners

[elguapo]

When Bob Jones takes delivery of a new aeroplane?

This is like new HQ building syndrome, you know a company is about to hit the rocks when they pour millions into a new, iconic HQ. Empire State, and BHP building in Perth are good examples.

[Perry]

MBIE, too, perhaps? Only a rented building, but tarted up at taxpayers expense,
of course. The notion that any government department can include 'innovation'
in its title or ethos shows how far from reality all those involved really are.

This is like new HQ building syndrome . . .

Very true of the old Hawke's Bay County Council, when it was
under the slash and burn razor of the Local Govt Commission.