Predictions for 2015

[donna]

I was thinking it might be fun to have a 'predictions' thread again. We've done this in the past and there's always a diversity of views. Watch reckon Donna?

Here it is Davo36 - and to kick it off.....

Japan has slipped back into recession and David Cameron is nervous saying "the warning lights are flashing" on the global economy (source)

Australia has just signed the free trade agreement with China - this is a threat to our dairy industry - how worried should we be?

cheers,

Donna

[PTILoveYou]

Ron predicted interest rates will go down more than 6 months ago.

Olly has just said the same thing on camera (while he was trying to win an argument vs Hickey).

Fun times ahead!

[Damap]

I'm just glad I have enough property in NZ now to not care. Get out of debt and relax is my plan

[Keys]

Christchurch will be a landlords nightmare by mid 2016. Too many empty houses.

[muppet]

The price of petrol to drop in Tokoroa.

[Eva2011]

Christchurch will be a landlords nightmare by mid 2016. Too many empty houses.

Do you have data to back up your statement? thanks

[Viking]

Christchurch won't be the only place. The number of permanent stay here arrivals is still very small but we are building again like there's no tomorrow.

http://www.interest.co.nz/property/72959/most-migrants-are-coming-here-students-or-working-visas-rather-live-new-figures-show

Auckland as well and probably Hamilton.

No one counts the retirement Villages that are going up daily at 500 homes a pop and more.
Already an excess of these in Tauranga and the rest of the towns and Cities are yet to catchup.

Auckland is getting too expensive for many including businesses and more will move out.

Oil to drop further followed closely by gold and silver.
Interest rates in NZ to go further down. Inflation close to deflation except in housing.

RBNZ still doesn't like Property Investors. We are greedy "rich pricks" if we own more than 5 houses.

Korea trade agreement will help exports in a slow manner.

Europe will see some of its disparate spenders come under pressure and we may well see France collapse taking Italy and others with them
Bagrie said this 2 years back and its still to happen. The continuing reduction in oil price will exact its toll on the Arab producers and others who have wracked up big debt on the basis of oil revenue. Some will default and take France with them, France being their bankers.
Germany won't be able to bail them out.

India will become a bigger export market.

Putin and Russia will beat back the EU for about the 6 th time in 3 centuries.

Russia will trade more with China and will soon be supplying China with lots of oil.
China will buy our milk powder (and other stuff),and supply it to the Russians.

[eri]

how can you have data to back up a future prediction?

[speights boy]

RBNZ still doesn't like Property Investors. We are greedy "rich pricks" if we own more than 5 houses.

No NZ Bank will fail.
The OCR will increase.
The US will surprise on the upside.
China will surprise on the downside.
The Russian economy will continue to come under pressure.

[PC]

Labours new policy will be more tax.
Bernard Hicky will claim child poverty and global warming caused by P.I.
Right to issue 90 day notice will be replaced with mediation and iwi consultation.

Most importantly - great beach weather!

[drelly]

how can you have data to back up a future prediction?

The same way people predicted how and why the GFC would happen.

[Damap]

And when the baby boomers start creating this surplus of housing as they pop off the government will simply relax immigration and we will see armies of rainbow coloured people arriving. Just keep buying houses people it's a sure thing :-)

[BigDreamer]

Right to issue 90 day notice will be replaced with mediation and iwi consultation.

That would be awful!!

I still think 90 days is not fair given that a tenant could give only 21 days notice so why does a landlord have to give over 4 times that duration?

[Perry]

Because - despite plaints to the contrary - the RTA
is one horribly pro-tenant-biased piece of legislation.

[Maccachic]

Tauranga property prices /rent to continue increasing with movement away from Auckland.

Fingers crossed for huge increases in Dunedin.