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From Tony's latest newsletter.
House prices will continue to rise in Auckland and Christchurch due to the simple economics of [/FONT]
shortages existing, strong immigration, low borrowing costs, low alternative returns,...
I'm hearing all sorts of reports about China winding down.
I've even been to several auctions lately where the Chinese are looking really reluctant to bid prices up...at least as far as usual.
Just this week I was watching the usual scenario, European New Zealander starting the bidding at a about 100K above CV and then two Chinese bidders taking over and pushing the price up another 300K. ( ha...a thousand at a time, as usual)
But they are looking strained lately.
I'm sure Tony has all sorts of data, but just from the things I'm seing at street level, something is up.
Seems like Tony's got a good idea of the non rational drivers in these times.
I'm curious how he runs this..
Against this...
I'm hearing all sorts of reports about China winding down.
I've even been to several auctions lately where the Chinese are looking really reluctant to bid prices up...at least as far as usual.
Just this week I was watching the usual scenario, European New Zealander starting the bidding at a about 100K above CV and then two Chinese bidders taking over and pushing the price up another 300K. ( ha...a thousand at a time, as usual)
But they are looking strained lately.
I'm sure Tony has all sorts of data, but just from the things I'm seing at street level, something is up.
I heard 2 interesting things, which if only 10% right are still strong pointers.
One from a friend and one from an agent.
Chinese person bought 70 houses in Auckland all at asking price.
Chinese person came over and spent 70m on auckland property and then went home.
Last edited by Perry; 15-12-2014, 10:36 AM.
Reason: fixed typo
Is it as simple as that? We need more wealth in this nation so the smart way to think is to position yourself to benefit from the increased values. They are going to cause Bucks and Howick prices to double in the next 3 to 4 years. Why complain just get buying some houses in Mcleans zone and reap the rewards surely??
We are a country of immigrants, on the far side of the world, and more and more the far side of the world in peace and harmony away from the modern age of terror, is increasingly where people want to be.
Expect more of the same but greater numbers.
I am negotiating on 2 properties on the shore as we speak, hope to have both of them tied up today if all goes well.
But I am trading them under a GST reg. trust and paying my tax's so at least I am a good boy.
But buying now and settling end Jan on both of them, lets hope prices have moved a little more.
No one is having a go at Ron Hoy Fong for his prediction "The Boom of all Booms" are they
The star's are so much aligned for prices to keep going higher and higher.
I tried to have a deck built last week and went to the council, and I might as well have been building a rocket to Pluto as far as chances of getting that off the ground go.
Everytime I experience the difficulty of council, and imagine how hard it is to build an actual house, I think harder about buying more rental properties for long term hold.
Auckland is full of little mountains and hills and streams and harbours and is not an easy flat place to build.
Supply is just so hammered.
Until they do some high rise slum appartments, or do a serious build program.
Prices keep rising.
My predictions:
House price rises in Auckland 10% 2015 and 2016.
Pushed back my prediction on plateau in market from end 2016 to mid 2017 or even 2018.
Is it as simple as that? We need more wealth in this nation so the smart way to think is to position yourself to benefit from the increased values. They are going to cause Bucks and Howick prices to double in the next 3 to 4 years. Why complain just get buying some houses in Mcleans zone and reap the rewards surely??
It is tempting isn't it.
But our national identity is more the story of "The Mouse that Roared" rather than yours and Jonkeys "The mouse that bent over and took one for a few bucks" idea.
More thoughtfully though, no population has ever done very well for very long while being invaded economically or physically.
Historically, I suppose it was smart for some French to assist the Germans during WWII, but in the end, the collaborators strategy proved a failure in the long term.
Or how about the American Indians swapping beads for land.
I guess to you, I would say bending over is a bad idea because you probably aren't smart enough to take advantage of the situation for very long.
Physically your brain is about the same complexity as the Chinese mind, but I would hazard a guess that the training in the reasoning sections is rather lacking by comparison.
Plus ...and this is the big plus... unlike jonkey you aren't connected to the shadow banking sector, or the wall street money sector well enough.
I might be wrong.. but that's my guess.
I agree with you Mcduck but my point was not should this happen, because it is happening. I was saying you can whine about it or seek to benefit from it that's all. I have watched our culture decline well basically since we started listening to people like Ken Mair.
You won't stop immigration, the ageing boomers make immigration absolutely essential. So you might as well set yourself up to benefit from it.
On an unrelated note but relative to 2015, I was meeting with the owner of a valuation company yesterday who echoed my thoughts about Chinese in East Auckland. He observed that their take over had just begun and predicted 2015 to be MASSIVE for value increase in our favourite suburbs fuelled entirely by Chinese parking money here. Sadly for him it did not equate to an increase in valuation work as the Chinese all pay cash and pay too much so no valuations required!
The China-driven boom isn't in danger from a collapse of growth in China? What happens when they want to pull money out again? It will probably happen at some point.
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