Originally posted by speights boy
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Ron Hoy Fong - Will The Next Boom Be The Boom Of All Booms?
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Originally posted by Bob Kane View PostJust returning to this thread after a break.
Eleven years ago Ron predicted the boom of all booms.
He also made some crazy comments about high immigration driving house prices upwards to new levels.
Gee, look what's happened.
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He also said the market was about to crash in 2004, just before prices went up 50% in 2 years.
So if you prophesize enough your bound to get something right.
But he has been right and he has backed up what his thoughts were, with buying action.
The Immigration he quoted was 100,000 per year and related to NZ people retiring and immigrants required to work those jobs.
Well that hasn't happened as people are happy to keep working and not retire, or else they cant afford to as they are going to live so long nowadays.
But the Ausie mining boom crashed at same time as the rules around students coming to NZ changed.
So being right for the wrong reason is still being right I guess.
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My thoughts around the rise of high tech terrorism will counter eventually, the rise of the anti investor culture rampant in NZ right now.
RBNZ / Govt and Opposition, a large slice of NZ, some sectors of the media, are the gathering storm of hate towards property investors.
It is now in vogue to hate with a vengeance property investors, traders, speculators, developers in Auckland.
Tony A's commentary last week detailed it all rather well.
That head winds are gathering, with concerted attacks on Chinese buyers and Auckland investors, just watch the new LVR level come in latter this year, 40% or 50% ?
Then the key DTI's next year, that will be the blow.
Then the dark horse the PAUP potentially could make available both a huge increase in dwellings (not new builds, just new dwellings if you understand the PAUP well enough you will know what I mean), and also in sections from the Mixed Housing zoning.
That will lead to a correction for sure.
But the bigger picture is high tech terrorism and the eventual immigration surge that will come as people flock to the safest most secure part of the world.
Let me say that its just not Pizza that's going to be delivered by drones in the future.
The social unrest is spreading through Europe and the Middle East.
The age of travel and tourism will over time weaken severely as it will be too dangerous to travel.
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Some experts say when the party will be over: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11672222
Apparently interest rates are the biggest risk. To which I call BS.
It'll be something left field, but not interest rates I reckon.Squadly dinky do!
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Originally posted by Davo36 View PostSome experts say when the party will be over: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11672222
Apparently interest rates are the biggest risk. To which I call BS.
It'll be something left field, but not interest rates I reckon.
However, I don't think interest rate can increase, given the economic environment we are in.
If something from left field give us a knock, interest rate will go down.
Interest rate down, servicing costs go down, more room for property prices to go up.
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Originally posted by Gary Lin View PostInterest rate is a big risk.
However, I don't think interest rate can increase, given the economic environment we are in.
If something from left field give us a knock, interest rate will go down.
Interest rate down, servicing costs go down, more room for property prices to go up.
If they let interest rates increase too much the financial stability of the country will be at risk, so they simply won't allow it to occur.
And so we are kind of caught in a situation where interest rates just go lower and lower and lower... which fuels asset price bubbles even more.Squadly dinky do!
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Originally posted by Davo36 View PostYep this is exactly what I think.
If they let interest rates increase too much the financial stability of the country will be at risk, so they simply won't allow it to occur.
And so we are kind of caught in a situation where interest rates just go lower and lower and lower... which fuels asset price bubbles even more.
(right memo to self, call broker, need to get another 2 Auckland rentals in before LVR's go up to 50%)
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Originally posted by Bluekiwi View PostCrikey that sounds terrible, absolutely terrible........
(right memo to self, call broker, need to get another 2 Auckland rentals in before LVR's go up to 50%)
Rewarding borrowers, knee-capping savers.
And yeah, the RBNZ signalling they might bring in higher LVRs but in 6 months time have just said to investors "Quick get in now! Now! Now! Now!" Hard to see how this will deflate the bubble...Squadly dinky do!
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Originally posted by Gary Lin View PostSavers have been losers since 1996 (Rich Dad Poor Dad).
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