Interest Rates

[brendan]

I should have gone with BNZ, I just signed 6.05% for 3 years before I could ring to cancel that. Lesson learnt, shop around more and don't rush to fix rates (even if the OCR is raised).

If you are going with shopping around and checking out BNZ, make sure you deal with their dedicated property investment specialists - see https://www.bnz.co.nz/personal-banki...rty-investment

[speights boy]

Just watch - the drop in the dollar was nothing but a knee-jerk reaction and it will extend down further than it would normally owing to that. Within a week it'll be back above where it sat before today's rate change.
Mark my words.

Down about 2 cents with 24 hours to 'mark'

[Leftette]

Yes, BUT, the significantly lower milk price is a variable one could not predict. If that continues ,then farmers will start to squeal about the high dollar (exporters have been squealing for years but of course ignored until the farmers join them).

[Wayne]

Yes, BUT, the significantly lower milk price is a variable one could not predict.

When you made the original comment the milk price was already on the way down with several consecutive auctions lower so a prediction wasn't needed.
You are starting to sound like all the others who predict things.

[speights boy]

Yes, BUT, the significantly lower milk price is a variable one could not predict.

If you want to start predicting NZD Forex movements, you should expand your research on world dairy prices.
Basically what Wayne said.

[Leftette]

Pedantic! It was a BIT lower, but not the frightful drop the poor hard-done-by farmers saw yesterday. I'm kind of pleased, to be honest. At least now us REALLY poor hard-done-by exporters may get the political leverage for a lower dollar on-side if the farming community join in.

[Leftette]

I stand by my comments though. If that dairy price stabilises or even creeps up a tad, the dollar will revert to trend in no time.

[Wayne]

Pedantic! It was a BIT lower, but not the frightful drop the poor hard-done-by farmers saw yesterday. I'm kind of pleased, to be honest. At least now us REALLY poor hard-done-by exporters may get the political leverage for a lower dollar on-side if the farming community join in.

The $6 payout had been mooted for weeks - hardly needed a prediction from you as everyone else had predicted it already.

[Wayne]

I stand by my comments though. If that dairy price stabilises or even creeps up a tad, the dollar will revert to trend in no time.

Now you are getting it.
Predict in a woolly way!
'in no time'

[speights boy]

I stand by my comments though. If that dairy price stabilises or even creeps up a tad, the dollar will revert to trend in no time.

Dairy prices slump to two-year low

Dairy product prices slumped to the lowest level since October 2012 in the latest GlobalDairyTrade auction, paced by whole milk powder and cheddar.

[elguapo]

Interesting take on it here;

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/commodities/11008732/UK-farmers-in-firing-line-as-global-dairy-giant-signals-milk-war.html

[speights boy]

Yes.
World glut, over supply, price war.
There are some who are talking closer to $5 than $6.
If farmers have taken an heaps of debt buying up neighbouring land recently there will be big concerns.

As you said on the property boom thread

Paying down during the boom is absolutely the correct move, it's those who leverage up during the boom who loose their shirts.
Even if they don't, trying to pay down debt at the bottom means you are on the sidelines when the best buys are to be had.

[Perry]

Forecasting, predictions, and so on. All very risky, most of the time.
Did any pundits see this coming?

The sudden weakness in global milk demand has come as a surprise to
many farmers who have grown used to rising demand for dairy from
Asia’s fast growing economies. China is forecast to become the world’s
biggest dairy consumer by 2018, with the government actively promoting
more calcium in the Chinese diet.

This has led to a rush by dairy farmers around the world to expand
their herds and increase production. Across the world’s major dairy
producing regions, output was up by 18pc in the first quarter.

However, a recent build of Chinese whole milk powder and whey
inventories has raised concerns that the government has been
stockpiling to protect the world’s second-largest economy from
inflation that could be caused by agricultural commodity prices rising
too quickly.

I vaguely recall this happened to its dairy farmers once Ireland was
sucked into the EU.

[speights boy]

Well I posted this article (post # 43) last month.

https://www.propertytalk.com/forum/showthread.php?31387-What-are-the-good-and-bad-areas-in-Hamilton/page5&highlight=milk+glut

I recall it wasn't difficult to find.
So, while still recent, I would suspect that there was plenty of 'smart money' out there.
There usually is.

[Perry]

Did anyone see 2014 price declines
in their 2013 crystal ball gazing?